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All Journal International Journal of Economic, Business, Accounting, Agriculture Management and Sharia Administration (IJEBAS) El-Mal: Jurnal Kajian Ekonomi & Bisnis Islam International Journal of Economics, Management and Accounting Proceeding of The International Conference on Economics, Accounting, and Taxation
Abdillah Arif Nasution
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Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Civil Engineering, Building, Construction & Architecture Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Industrial & Manufacturing Engineering Social Sciences

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From Financial Distress to Corporate Turnaround: An Episode-Based Measurement Approach in an Emerging Market Context Hendra Agustinus Marbun; Erlina Erlina; Abdillah Arif Nasution; Chandra Situmeang
Proceeding of the International Conference on Economics, Accounting, and Taxation Vol. 3 No. 1 (2026): Proceeding of the International Conference on Economics, Accounting, and Taxati
Publisher : Asosiasi Riset Ekonomi dan Akuntansi Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.61132/iceat.v3i1.213

Abstract

This paper introduces an episode-based measurement approach for studying corporate turnaround in emerging markets, addressing a fundamental methodological limitation in existing literature that predominantly treats the firm as the unit of analysis. Using data from the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) covering 2000–2024, we identify 96 financial distress episodes from 87 non-financial firms, where distress is defined economically as periods when return on investment (ROI) falls below the prevailing risk-free rate. The episode-based framework reconceptualizes the unit of analysis from individual firms to discrete distress-recovery sequences, enabling temporal alignment of distress onset, strategy implementation, and recovery assessment. Descriptive findings reveal that 43.75% of episodes achieved successful turnaround, with management turnover present in 51.04% of episodes and macroeconomic shocks coinciding with 27.08% of episodes. An early empirical validation using binary logistic regression with cluster-robust standard errors demonstrates excellent model classification ability (AUC = 0.817, 75% accuracy). This paper contributes primarily to research methodology in turnaround studies by proposing a replicable, theoretically grounded approach that captures the dynamic, episodic nature of financial distress and recovery particularly relevant in emerging market environments characterized by recurrent macroeconomic volatility.
Co-Authors Abdul Razak Munir Afni Yeni Amlys Syahputra Silalahi Andreas Recki Prasetyo Dewi Mariam Widiniarsih Endi Rustendi ERLINA Erlina Erlina Eva Yuniarti Utami Fadli Fadli Haris Karyadi Hartono Hartono Hendra Agustinus Marbun Iskandar Muda JULIE THERESYA PELAMONIA Keulana Erwin Made Susilawati Mega Arisia Dewi Melani Tanjung Muhammad Syaiful Muhammad Syaiful Musran Munizu Nuniek Yuniarti Ningsih Renggaala Nurul Mizna Sukma Renggaala, Nuniek Yuniarti Ningsih Renika Hasibuan Restauli Simarmata Ridhani Fahlika Siregar Siregar, Narumondang Bulan Situmeang, Chandra Tirsa Neyatri Bandrang Vahrunnisa Purba Wanda Annisa Lubis