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All Journal Jurnal Sains dan Seni ITS Jurnal Penelitian dan Pendidikan IPS Indonesian Journal of Applied Statistics Jambura Journal of Mathematics Jurnal Abdi Insani Jurnal Statistika dan Matematika (Statmat) Jurnal Statistika dan Aplikasinya Multica Science and Technology International Journal of Quantitative Research and Modeling Buletin Sistem Informasi dan Teknologi Islam VARIANSI: Journal of Statistics and Its Application on Teaching and Research Jurnal Statistika dan Komputasi (STATKOM) Eksponensial ANDIL Mulawarman Journal of Community Engagement
Erlyne Nadhilah Widyaningrum
Universitas Mulawarman
Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Arts Humanities Civil Engineering, Building, Construction & Architecture Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Earth & Planetary Sciences Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Energy Engineering Environmental Science Health Professions Industrial & Manufacturing Engineering Languange, Linguistic, Communication & Media Law, Crime, Criminology & Criminal Justice Library & Information Science Mathematics Physics Public Health Social Sciences Other

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Penerapan Metode SEM-PLS pada Kepuasan Pengguna Aplikasi Instagram Tamba, Felicia Joy Rotua; Nasywa, Syarifah; Salsabila, Adellia; Khoiruddin, Ahmad Zulfikar; Tandi Kala, Ezra Alfrianto; Sifriyani, Sifriyani; Sari, Nariza Wanti Wulan; Yuniarti, Desi; Nadhilah Widyaningrum, Erlyne; Atarezcha Pangruruk, Thesya
EKSPONENSIAL Vol. 16 No. 2 (2025): Jurnal Eksponensial
Publisher : Program Studi Statistika FMIPA Universitas Mulawarman

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30872/a8agna87

Abstract

Social media platforms, particularly Instagram, have emerged as widely utilized channels among diverse user groups, including university students, for information sharing, social interaction, and entertainment purposes. The study seeks to analyze how Instagram quality, perceived benefits, and social interaction contribute to user satisfaction and loyalty within the FMIPA community at Mulawarman University.  The SmartPLS 3.0 software facilitates the use of the Structural Equation Modelling technique based on Partial Least Squares (SEM-PLS) in this investigation.  The results show that each of the three independent factors significantly and favourably affects user pleasure, which in turn significantly boosts customer loyalty. The R-square values of 0.685 for satisfaction and 0.655 for loyalty suggest that the proposed model adequately explains the relationships among the variables. Furthermore, all measurement indicators were confirmed to be both valid and reliable. In conclusion, the study demonstrates that users’ positive perceptions of Instagram’s quality, benefits, and social interaction contribute to enhanced satisfaction and foster greater loyalty toward the platform.
APPLICATION OF THE GUSTAFSON–KESSEL ALGORITHM FOR IDENTIFYING SPATIAL PATTERNS OF NATURAL DISASTERS IN EAST NUSA TENGGARA Nufus, Mitha Rabiyatul; Chandrawati; Widyaningrum, Erlyne Nadhilah
Jurnal Statistika dan Aplikasinya Vol. 9 No. 2 (2025): Jurnal Statistika dan Aplikasinya
Publisher : LPPM Universitas Negeri Jakarta

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.21009/JSA.09205

Abstract

This study examines spatial patterns of disaster vulnerability across districts and cities in East Nusa Tenggara Province, one of Indonesia’s most disaster-prone regions. Although previous studies have highlighted the province’s exposure to multiple hazards, limited attention has been given to clustering methods capable of capturing non-homogeneous and elliptical data structures. This research aims to classify regional disaster vulnerability based on the characteristics of disaster occurrences and to provide empirical support for more targeted mitigation strategies. Secondary data on floods, forest fires, hurricanes, and landslides recorded in 2023 were analyzed using the adaptive Gustafson–Kessel clustering algorithm. The optimal number of clusters was determined using the Silhouette validity index. The results identify three distinct vulnerability groups: regions highly prone to multiple types of disasters, regions predominantly affected by a single hazard, and regions with relatively low disaster risk. The resulting spatial patterns reveal clear differences in disaster intensity and complexity among regions, emphasizing the need for location-specific disaster management policies. This study contributes to disaster risk analysis by demonstrating the applicability of the Gustafson–Kessel algorithm in capturing complex spatial vulnerability patterns that are often overlooked by conventional clustering approaches.
Comparative Analysis of Hierarchical Cluster Methods in Inflationary Cities in Indonesia Based on Sectoral Inflation Patterns Khoirunissa, Husna Afanyn; Safitriani, Nur Rezky; Widyaningrum, Erlyne Nadhilah; Putri, Rizka Amalia; Fathan, Morina A.; Nisa, Nabilla Rida Tri
Jambura Journal of Mathematics Vol 8, No 1: February 2026
Publisher : Department of Mathematics, Universitas Negeri Gorontalo

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.37905/jjom.v8i1.35105

Abstract

This study aims to assess the performance of single linkage, complete linkage, and average linkage hierarchical clustering algorithms in grouping cities used as inflation benchmarks in Indonesia into clusters based on sectoral inflation patterns. The data utilized are 150 regencies/cities divided into 11 sectors that drive inflation, identified by BPS Indonesia. Prior to clustering, a distance analysis using Euclidean distances was conducted to measure similarity between regions. Evaluation of the optimal number of clusters was conducted by applying the stability measure approach (APN, AD, ADM, and FOM), which showed that creating five clusters produced the most stable results. The results of the analysis revealed that the single linkage approach had the lowest within-cluster to between-cluster standard deviation ratio compared to the other two approaches, which revealed a greater level of homogeneity between the clusters. From an economic perspective, this clustering pattern revealed impressive differences in sectoral inflation pressures between provinces, even between cities within a province. Consequently, the single linkage method is proposed as the optimal method for identifying spatial variations in sectoral inflation in Indonesia.
Comparison of Poisson and Negative Binomial Regression Models in Identifying Factors Influencing Covid-19 Deaths in Indonesia. Nabilla Rida Tri Nisa; Amanatullah Pandu Zenklinov; Husna Afanyn Khoirunissa; Nur Rezky Safitriani; Erlyne Nadhilah Widyaningrum; Rizka Amalia Putri; Morina A. Fathan
International Journal of Quantitative Research and Modeling Vol. 6 No. 4 (2025): International Journal of Quantitative Research and Modeling
Publisher : Research Collaboration Community (RCC)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.46336/ijqrm.v6i4.1126

Abstract

This research compares Poisson Regression and Generalized Negative Binomial (GNB) Regression to underscore the factors that influence the growth of COVID-19 deaths in Indonesia. Count data such as mortality cases often violates the Poisson assumption of equidispersion (null mean equals variance) causing overdispersion. The GNB model is suggested as a remedy for overdispersed data crime prevention has become increasingly necessary for systematic development because secondary data from the Indonesian government has included dependable variables such as mortality rates for people aged over 60, diabetes mellitus, heart disease, lung disease, healthcare worker percentages, referral hospitals, and the population. The Poisson Regression reported R² of 87.67% and experienced overdispersion (θ₁ = 356.27, θ₂ = 417,597). The GNB model, in contrast, with a lower AIC (499.5566), overtook Poisson. Important factors that had significant impact on both models were mortality rates for individuals over 60, diabetes mellitus, healthcare workers, and referral hospitals, whereas heart and lung disease mortality rates were the ones that were not material. The GNB model had a better fit and tackled the issues of overdispersion in the Poisson Regression.
Comparative Analysis of DES-Brown and DES-Holt Methods in Forecasting the Stock Price of PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk Rahman, Dela Juliarsih; Nurmayanti, Wiwit Pura; Pangruruk, Thesya Atarezcha; Widyaningrum, Erlyne Nadhilah; Hasanah, Siti Hadijah
VARIANSI: Journal of Statistics and Its application on Teaching and Research Vol. 8 No. 1 (2026)
Publisher : Program Studi Statistika Fakultas MIPA UNM

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35580/variansiunm486

Abstract

This study aims to dermine the best forecasting method for the stock price of PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk using the Double Exponential Smoothing (DES) Brown and DES-Holt methods. The data used consist of stock prices from January 2019 to September 2025. The DES-Brown method employs a single parameter, while DES-Holt uses two parameters. Forecasting accuracy is evaluated using Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The results indicate that the DES-Brown method with a smoothing parameter produces the smallest forecasting errors compared to the DES-Holt method, with MAD, RMSE , and MAPE . Therefore, it can be concluded that the DES-Brown method is the most suitable approach for forecasting the stock price of PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk.
Modeling East Java Province Poverty Cases Using Birespon Truncted Spline Regression Putri, Rizka Amalia; Wulandari, Nindya; Widyaningrum, Erlyne Nadhilah; Fathan, Morina A.; Safitriani, Nur Rezky
Indonesian Journal of Applied Statistics Vol 8, No 1 (2025)
Publisher : Universitas Sebelas Maret

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.13057/ijas.v8i1.100915

Abstract

An analytical method for determining the relationship between predictor and response variables is regression. For data that shows unidentified patterns, nonparametric regression is a suitable data analysis technique. A nonparametric regression technique is the truncated spline. Due to the widespread use of truncated spline with a single response variable, this study employs biresponse truncated spline, which uses two response variables to produce a better model than single-response modeling. The purpose of this study is to obtain the best model and to identify which variables influence the poverty case in East Java Province using biresponse truncated spline regression. The best knot points were chosen for this investigation using Generalized Cross Validation (GCV). With three knot points and a model goodness of fit () of 95.83%, GCV gives the best modeling results. Applying this model to the East Java Province case of poverty using data on the poverty depth index and the percentage of the population living in poverty in 2023 reveals that the Labor Force Participation Rate (TPAK), Average Years of Schooling (RLS), and Open Unemployment Rate (TPT) all have a significant effect.Keywords: biresponse truncated spline; nonparametric regression; poverty
Co-Authors Abda Abda Afif Nurdiansyah, Mochamad Amanatullah Pandu Zenklinov Angeline Seru, Indra Aprillia Elsada Rinindah Atarezcha Pangruruk, Thesya Aulia, Nabila Bahriah, Ayu Chandrawati Christian, Diego Desi Yuniarti Fathan, Morina A. Hariyanto Hariyanto Hasanah, Siti Hadijah Hidayanty, Nurul Ilma Husna Afanyn Khoirunissa Husna Afanyn Khoirunissa Ika Purnamasari Khoiruddin, Ahmad Zulfikar Khoirunnisa, Husna Afanyn Kosasih, Raditya Arya M. Fathurahman Mitha Rabiyatul Nufus Morina A. Fathan Muchlashin, Anif Muhammad Azra Firdaus Nabilla Rida Tri Nisa Nariza Wanti Wulan Sari Nasywa, Syarifah Ni Luh Desvita Pratiwi Ningsih, Eva Lestari Nisa, Nabilla Rida Tri Nugraha, Pratama Yuly Nur Rezky Safitriani Nurmayanti, Wiwit Pura Pangruruk , Thesya Atarezcha Pangruruk Patiallo, Monalisa Randang Putri, Rizka Amalia Rahman, Dela Juliarsih Ratna Kusuma, Ratna Rizka Amalia Putri Safitriani, Nur Rezky Sakila Armayani Salsabila, Adellia Shalihatunnisa, Shalihatunnisa Sholikhati, Adrikni Sifriyani, Sifriyani SITI MAHMUDAH Suhud Wahyudi Surya Prangga Suyitno Suyitno Suyitno Tamba, Felicia Joy Rotua Tandi Kala, Ezra Alfrianto Wiwit Pura Nurmayanti Yuniarti, Desi