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Advanced Forecasting of Maize Production using SARIMAX Models: An Analytical Approach Airlangga, Gregorius
JURNAL MEDIA INFORMATIKA BUDIDARMA Vol 8, No 1 (2024): Januari 2024
Publisher : Universitas Budi Darma

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30865/mib.v8i1.7268

Abstract

Agricultural production forecasting is crucial for food security and economic planning. This study conducts a detailed analysis of maize production forecasting using the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model, emphasizing the applicability of time-series models in capturing complex agricultural dynamics. Following a comprehensive literature review, the SARIMA model was justified for its ability to integrate seasonal fluctuations inherent in agricultural time series. Optimal model parameters were meticulously determined through an iterative process, optimizing the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC). The best-performing SARIMA(1, 1, 2)x(2, 2, 2, 12) model achieved an AIC of 339914.85450182937 and a BIC of 339950.64499813004, indicating its strong fit to the historical data. This model was applied to a historical dataset of maize production, providing forecasts that align closely with actual production trends on a short-term basis. Notably, the model's short-term predictions for the subsequent year showed less than a 2% deviation from the actual figures, affirming its precision. However, long-term forecasts revealed greater variability, underscoring the challenge of accounting for unforeseen environmental and economic factors in agricultural production systems. This research substantiates the efficacy of SARIMA models in agricultural forecasting, delivering strategic insights for resource management. It also points towards the integration of SARIMA with other variables and advanced modeling techniques as a future avenue to enhance forecasting robustness, particularly for long-term projections. The findings serve as a valuable resource for policymakers and stakeholders in optimizing decision-making processes for agricultural production.
Integrating LightGBM and XGBoost for Software Defect Classification Problem Airlangga, Gregorius
JURNAL MEDIA INFORMATIKA BUDIDARMA Vol 8, No 1 (2024): Januari 2024
Publisher : Universitas Budi Darma

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30865/mib.v8i1.7267

Abstract

Software defect classification is a crucial process in quality assurance, pivotal for the development of reliable software systems. This paper presents an innovative approach that synergizes traditional software complexity metrics with advanced machine learning algorithms, namely Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM) and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), to enhance the accuracy and efficiency of software defect classification. Leveraging a dataset characterized by McCabe's and Halstead's metrics, this study embarks on meticulous data preprocessing, feature engineering, and hyperparameter optimization to train and evaluate the proposed models. The LightGBM and XGBoost models are fine-tuned through the Optuna framework, aiming to maximize the ROC-AUC score as a measure of classification performance. The results indicate that both models perform robustly, with XGBoost demonstrating a slight superiority in predictive capability. The integration of machine learning with traditional complexity metrics not only enhances the defect classification process but also provides deeper insights into the factors influencing software quality. The findings suggest that such hybrid approaches can significantly contribute to the predictive analytics tools available to software engineers and quality assurance professionals. This research contributes to the field by offering a comprehensive methodological framework and empirical evidence for the effectiveness of combining machine learning algorithms with traditional software complexity metrics in software defect classification.
Comparison of Predictive Modeling Concrete Compressive Strength with Machine Learning Approaches Airlangga, Gregorius
UKaRsT Vol. 8 No. 1 (2024): APRIL
Publisher : Kadiri University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30737/ukarst.v8i1.5532

Abstract

Accurately predicting concrete compressive strength is fundamental for optimizing mix designs, ensuring structural integrity, and advancing sustainable construction practices. Increased demands for safer, more durable infrastructure necessitate effective predictive concrete compressive strength models. This research aims to compare the effectiveness of six machine learning models such as Linear Regression, Random Forest, Support Vector Regression (SVR), K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), Gradient Boosting, and XGBoost to predict concrete compressive strength. Used a dataset of 1030 instances with varying mixture compositions, conducted extensive exploratory data analysis, and applied feature engineering and data scaling to enhance model performance. Assessments were performed with a 5-fold cross-validation approach with the R-squared (R²) metric. In addition, the SHAP value is used to understand the influence of each feature on the compressive strength results. The results revealed that XGBoost significantly outperformed other models, achieving an average R² value of 0.9178 with a standard deviation of 0.0296. Notably, Random Forest and Gradient Boosting also demonstrated robust capabilities. Based on our experiment, these models effectively predicted compressive strengths close to actual measured values, confirming their practical applicability in civil engineering. SHAP values provided insights into the significant impact of age and cement quantity on model outputs. These results highlight the advanced ensemble methods' effectiveness in concrete compressive strength prediction and underscore the importance of feature engineering in enhancing model accuracy.
Exoplanet Classification Through Machine Learning: A Comparative Analysis of Algorithms Using Kepler Data Airlangga, Gregorius
MALCOM: Indonesian Journal of Machine Learning and Computer Science Vol. 4 No. 3 (2024): MALCOM July 2024
Publisher : Institut Riset dan Publikasi Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.57152/malcom.v4i3.1303

Abstract

This study delves into the classification of exoplanets using data from the Kepler Space Telescope, comparing a suite of machine learning (ML) models to ascertain their efficacy in distinguishing confirmed planets, candidates, and false positives. With a dataset meticulously preprocessed for quality, completeness, and relevance, we embarked on an analytical journey employing models like Decision Tree, Random Forest, Hist Gradient Boosting, CatBoost, AdaBoost, LightGBM, XGBoost, Extra Trees, Logistic Regression, and XGBoost RF. These models underwent rigorous evaluation across metrics such as Accuracy, Precision, Recall, and F1 Score, revealing an unprecedented level of performance. Our findings showcased a near-uniform perfection in model predictions, with scores touching the zenith of 1.0 across most metrics for the majority of models, indicating their flawless prediction capabilities. This remarkable performance, however, was nuanced by the Gaussian NB model's slightly less than perfect scores of 0.99, highlighting a minor deviation due to its probabilistic nature. While these results underscore the models' exceptional accuracy and reliability in classifying exoplanetary data, they also prompt a critical examination of potential overfitting, the dataset's complexity, and the models' generalizability to unseen data. 
Comparative Analysis of Machine Learning Models for Chronic Disease Indicator Classification Using U.S. Chronic Disease Indicators Dataset Airlangga, Gregorius
MALCOM: Indonesian Journal of Machine Learning and Computer Science Vol. 4 No. 3 (2024): MALCOM July 2024
Publisher : Institut Riset dan Publikasi Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.57152/malcom.v4i3.1403

Abstract

The prevalence of chronic diseases poses significant challenges to public health systems worldwide. This study evaluates the performance of four machine learning models—Gradient Boosting Classifier, Support Vector Machine (SVM), Logistic Regression, and Random Forest—in classifying chronic disease indicators using the U.S. Chronic Disease Indicators (CDI) dataset. The models were assessed based on accuracy, precision, recall, F1 score, classification report, and confusion matrix to determine their effectiveness. The Gradient Boosting Classifier outperformed other models with an accuracy of 64.36%, precision of 63.72%, recall of 64.36%, and F1 score of 63.88%. While SVM and Random Forest demonstrated moderate performance, Logistic Regression served as a baseline for comparison. The study highlights the Gradient Boosting Classifier's superiority in handling the complexities of the CDI dataset, suggesting its potential for improving chronic disease prediction and management. Future research should focus on refining these models, addressing class imbalances, and incorporating domain knowledge to enhance interpretability and applicability in real-world scenarios.
Comparative Analysis of Neural Network Architectures for Predicting Chronic Disease Indicators Using CDC’s Chronic Disease Indicators Dataset Airlangga, Gregorius
MALCOM: Indonesian Journal of Machine Learning and Computer Science Vol. 4 No. 3 (2024): MALCOM July 2024
Publisher : Institut Riset dan Publikasi Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.57152/malcom.v4i3.1406

Abstract

This research evaluates the performance of three machine learning models—Neural Network (NN), Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), and Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) using Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) units—in predicting chronic disease indicators using the CDC's Chronic Disease Indicators (CDI) dataset. The study employs a comprehensive preprocessing pipeline and 5-fold cross-validation to ensure robustness and generalizability of the results. The CNN model outperformed both the NN and RNN models across all key performance metrics, achieving an accuracy of 0.6303, precision of 0.6445, recall of 0.6303, and F1 score of 0.5950. The superior performance of the CNN is attributed to its ability to capture spatial hierarchies and interactions within the structured dataset. The findings underscore the importance of selecting appropriate machine learning architectures based on the data characteristics. This research provides valuable insights for public health officials and policymakers to enhance chronic disease monitoring, early detection, and intervention strategies. Future work will explore hybrid models and advanced techniques to further improve predictive performance. This study highlights the potential of CNNs in public health informatics and sets a foundation for further research in this domain
Synergistic Machine Learning: Enhancing Diabetes Prediction with Hybrid Deep Learning and Ensemble Models Airlangga, Gregorius
Kesatria : Jurnal Penerapan Sistem Informasi (Komputer dan Manajemen) Vol 5, No 3 (2024): Edisi Juli
Publisher : LPPM STIKOM Tunas Bangsa

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30645/kesatria.v5i3.457

Abstract

Diabetes, a growing global health concern, necessitates improved predictive strategies for early and accurate detection. This study evaluates the efficacy of various machine learning and deep learning models in predicting the onset of diabetes, employing a comprehensive dataset that includes clinical and demographic variables. Traditional machine learning models such as Decision Trees, Random Forest, KNN, and XGBoost provided foundational insights, with ensemble methods showing superior performance. Furthermore, we explored the potential of deep learning by analyzing a Simple Dense Neural Network (DNN), Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), and Recurrent Neural Network (RNN). While these individual models yielded valuable findings, particularly in identifying true positive cases, they did not surpass the ensemble techniques in overall accuracy. The pinnacle of our research was the development of a Deep Learning Meta Learner that combined Random Forest and Gradient Boosting predictions, achieving near-perfect classification metrics, and underscoring the strength of model integration. Our findings advocate for a hybrid predictive approach that merges the nuanced feature detection of deep learning with the robust pattern recognition of ensemble models, providing an impactful direction for future diabetes prediction research. This study contributes to the advancement of medical informatics and aims to support healthcare professionals in delivering proactive and personalized patient care.
Enhancing Concrete Compressive Strength Prediction with Deep Learning: A Comparative Analysis of Model Architectures Airlangga, Gregorius
Kesatria : Jurnal Penerapan Sistem Informasi (Komputer dan Manajemen) Vol 5, No 3 (2024): Edisi Juli
Publisher : LPPM STIKOM Tunas Bangsa

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30645/kesatria.v5i3.459

Abstract

The imperative to predict concrete compressive strength accurately is a crucial aspect of modern civil engineering, with significant implications for the safety and cost-effectiveness of construction projects. This research explores the application of deep learning techniques to enhance predictive accuracy in this domain. We conducted a comprehensive comparative analysis of five machine learning models: a Basic neural network model, a Dropout model, a Batch Normalization model, a Deep Dense Neural Network (Deep DNN), and a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN). Utilizing a dataset reflective of various concrete mixtures and their corresponding compressive strengths, each model underwent rigorous evaluation through a five-fold cross-validation scheme. Performance metrics, including Mean Squared Error (MSE) and R-Squared (R²), were computed to assess each model's predictive capabilities. The results indicated that models employing batch normalization and deeper architectures provided superior predictive performance, suggesting that these features are instrumental in understanding the complex relationships between the components of concrete mixtures. The Batch Normalization and Deep DNN models demonstrated remarkable accuracy and consistency, surpassing traditional and CNN models. This study not only enhances the current understanding of material property prediction through machine learning but also paves the way for the development of more efficient and robust predictive tools in civil engineering. The findings underscore the transformative potential of deep learning in material science, emphasizing its ability to deliver nuanced and precise predictions for critical engineering properties.
Comparative Analysis of Machine Learning Models for Classifying Human DNA Sequences: Performance Metrics and Strategic Recommendations Airlangga, Gregorius
Journal of Computer System and Informatics (JoSYC) Vol 5 No 3 (2024): May 2024
Publisher : Forum Kerjasama Pendidikan Tinggi (FKPT)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.47065/josyc.v5i3.5168

Abstract

This study presents a comprehensive evaluation of seven machine learning models applied to the classification of human DNA sequences, highlighting their performance and potential applications in genomics. We explored Logistic Regression, Support Vector Machines (SVM), Random Forest, Decision Trees, Gradient Boosting, Naive Bayes, and XGBoost, using a 5-fold StratifiedKFold cross-validation method to ensure robustness and reliability in our findings. Naive Bayes demonstrated exceptional performance with near-perfect accuracy, precision, recall, and F1 scores, suggesting its suitability for rapid and efficient genomic classification. Logistic Regression also showed high efficacy, proving effective even in multi-class classifications of complex genetic data. Conversely, Decision Trees and SVM struggled with overfitting and computational efficiency, respectively, indicating the need for careful parameter tuning and optimization in practical applications. The study addresses these challenges and proposes strategies for enhancing model robustness and computational efficiency, such as advanced regularization techniques and hybrid modeling approaches. These insights not only aid in selecting appropriate models for specific genomic tasks but also pave the way for future research into integrating machine learning with genomic science to advance personalized medicine and genetic research. The findings encourage ongoing refinement of these models to unlock further potential in genomic applications.
Comparative Analysis of Deep Learning Architectures for DNA Sequence Classification: Performance Evaluation and Model Insights Airlangga, Gregorius
Journal of Computer System and Informatics (JoSYC) Vol 5 No 3 (2024): May 2024
Publisher : Forum Kerjasama Pendidikan Tinggi (FKPT)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.47065/josyc.v5i3.5170

Abstract

The classification of DNA sequences using deep learning models offers promising avenues for advancements in genomics and personalized medicine. This study provides a comprehensive evaluation of several deep learning architectures, including Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs), Long Short-Term Memory networks (LSTMs), Gated Recurrent Units (GRUs), Bidirectional LSTMs (BiLSTMs), and hybrid models combining CNNs with various recurrent networks, to classify human DNA sequences into functional categories. We employed a dataset of approximately 100,000 labeled sequences, ensuring a balanced representation across seven distinct classes to facilitate a fair comparison of model performance. Each model was assessed based on accuracy, precision, recall, F1 score, and Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (AUC-ROC). The CNN model demonstrated superior accuracy (74.86%) and the highest AUC (94.64%), indicating its effectiveness in capturing spatial patterns within sequences. LSTM and GRU models showed commendable performance, particularly in balancing precision and recall, suggesting their capability in managing sequential dependencies. However, hybrid models did not perform as expected, showing lower overall metrics, which highlighted challenges in model integration and complexity management. The findings suggest that while CNNs excel in feature extraction, sequence-based models like LSTMs and GRUs provide valuable capabilities in capturing long-range dependencies, essential for comprehensive genomic analysis. The study underscores the need for optimized hybrid models and further research into model robustness and generalizability.