Garuda - Garba Rujukan Digital

Navigating the Post-ETF Paradigm: An Integrative Multi-Factor Model for Projecting Bitcoin's 2025 Market Cycle Apex Abdul Malik; Ahmad Badruddin; Mary-Jane Wood; Sonia Vernanda; Gladys Putri; Ifah Shandy; Darlene Sitorus; Delia Tamim
Enigma in Economics Vol. 3 No. 1 (2025): Enigma in Economics
Publisher : Enigma Institute

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.61996/economy.v3i1.91

Bitcoin’s market structure underwent a fundamental and irreversible transformation following the 2024 regulatory approval and launch of spot Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) in the United States. This event catalyzed an unprecedented wave of institutional adoption, signaling the asset's maturation from a fringe, retail-driven speculative vehicle into an emergent institutional-grade macro-asset. This study moves beyond traditional cyclical models, which are predicated on historical, pre-institutional market dynamics, to analyze Bitcoin's valuation within this profoundly evolved landscape. The primary objective is to project the potential price apex for Bitcoin in the 2024-2025 market cycle by developing and applying a transparent, replicable, and comprehensive multi-factor analytical framework. A multi-factorial, longitudinal analysis was conducted using a combination of publicly available data and simulated datasets from Q1 2022 to Q2 2025. The model is built upon a structured, semi-quantitative framework designed to synthesize three core analytical pillars: (1) Macroeconomic Environment, quantitatively assessing the impact of Federal Reserve interest rate policy, US Dollar Index (DXY) dynamics, and inflation trends through correlation analysis and sensitivity modeling. (2) On-Chain Intelligence, utilizing a suite of metrics from primary sources like Glassnode, including MVRV Z-Score, LTH-SOPR, and Illiquid Supply growth, while critically evaluating the continued validity of their historical thresholds. (3) Market & Flow Dynamics, which integrates technical analysis with a rigorous, quantitative assessment of spot ETF demand versus daily new supply, moving beyond subjective interpretations of price charts. A transparent weighting rubric was developed to integrate the findings from each pillar, mitigating subjective bias and ensuring the analytical synthesis is replicable. The synthesis of the model's components revealed a powerful confluence of bullish factors projected to intensify through late 2024 and into 2025. The Macroeconomic pillar scored moderately positive, forecasting a probable shift to monetary easing. The On-Chain pillar registered a strongly positive score, driven by a profound and persistent supply shock, evidenced by record illiquid supply growth and sustained exchange outflows, indicating strong holder conviction. The Market & Flow Dynamics pillar also scored strongly positive, with institutional demand via ETFs consistently outstripping newly mined supply by a significant multiple. The model's base-case scenario, derived from the weighted synthesis of these pillars, projects a Bitcoin price apex in the range of $150,000 to $200,000, with the most probable timing for this peak occurring between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025. In conclusion, the findings indicate that the 2024-2025 Bitcoin market cycle is fundamentally distinct from its predecessors, primarily driven by a structural, institutional-led demand shock that interacts with, and is amplified by, traditional macroeconomic tailwinds and established cyclical patterns. The projected price apex reflects a market structure that has matured, with future cycles likely to be more influenced by global liquidity conditions than the halving event alone. This research provides a robust, transparent, and theoretically grounded framework for valuing Bitcoin in its new role within the global financial system and offers a template for future analysis of digital assets as they integrate with traditional finance.

Qur’anic Therapeutic Spiritual Communication for Students Involved in Cyberbullying from Broken Home Families Ahmad Bahrul Hikam; Ahmad Badruddin; Mohamad Zaenal Arifin; Amin, Muhammad
Jurnal Ilmiah Al-Mu'ashirah: Media Kajian Al-Qur'an dan Al-Hadits Multi Perspektif Vol. 22 No. 1 (2025)
Publisher : South East Asia Regional Intellectual Forum of Qoran Hadith (SEARFIQH)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.22373/jim.v22i1.29608

This study explores the delivery of Qur’anic spiritual messages by Islamic Education teachers to students from broken home families who are either victims or perpetrators of cyberbullying. The aim is to foster awareness of the importance of ethical interaction on social media and to develop emotional, mental, and spiritual resilience. Employing a qualitative case study approach, the research involved four Islamic Education teachers, two homeroom teachers, and five students from broken home backgrounds. Data were collected through observation and interviews, and analyzed using data reduction, data display, verification, and conclusion drawing. The findings reveal that a broken home environment can trigger students to become both victims and perpetrators of cyberbullying. As victims, students are at risk of psychological, emotional, and mental distress. As perpetrators, they may experience moral degradation and diminished humanity. The study concludes that the harmful effects of cyberbullying on students from broken home families can be mitigated through the therapeutic stimulation of Qur’anic spiritual messages, focusing on moral conduct, life principles, repentance, patience, and positive thinking.

Revitalization of the Role of Majelis Taklim Mushola Nurul Iman Bukit Gading in Male Religious Study to Enhance Religious Awareness in Cangkudu Village, Balaraja District, Tangerang Regency Mansurudin; Ahmad Badruddin
IRDH International Journal of Social Sciences & Humanities Vol. 2 No. 3 (2025): October
Publisher : International Research and Development for Human Beings (IRDH)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar

The revitalization program of the Taklim Assembly at the Mushola Nurul Iman Bukit Gading is a community service effort aimed at reinvigorating the spirit of the congregation, particularly the male members, in religious study sessions and enhancing religious awareness in the village of Cangkudu, Balaraja District, Tangerang Regency. The activities are conducted over eight weeks using interactive seminar methods and participatory discussions. This approach is chosen to address the issues of declining congregation participation, monotonous study methods, and the lack of relevance of topics discussed to the needs of the congregation. The evaluation results show an increase in the attendance of congregants from an average of 24 people before the program to 42 people after the program. The scores for religious understanding also significantly increased from an average of 62 to 84 on a scale of 100. The highest increase occurred in the understanding of the father's role in the family (38%), followed by the management of Sharia finance (32%), and value-based emotional management (29%). Positive impacts are also seen in the behavioral changes of congregants at home and the increase in religious-based social activities in the surrounding area of the mosque. The limitations of facilities and the variation in work schedules of the congregation are the main obstacles in the implementation of this program. Therefore, follow-up actions such as strengthening facilities, digital training for the administrators, and the preparation of simple learning modules are recommended to support the sustainability of the program.

Empowering Educators, Supporting Students: A Quasi-Experimental Evaluation of a Train-the-Trainer Model for School Mental Health in Indonesia Ahmad Badruddin; Omar Alieva; Ifah Shandy; Henny Kesuma; Benyamin Wongso; Winata Putri; Habiburrahman Said
Indonesian Community Empowerment Journal Vol. 5 No. 2 (2025): Indonesian Community Empowerment Journal
Publisher : HM Publisher

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.37275/icejournal.v5i2.49

Adolescent mental health is a pressing concern in urban Indonesian schools, where a significant gap exists between student needs and the availability of professional support. This study evaluated the efficacy of a culturally-adapted, school-based "Train-the-Trainer" (TtT) community service model designed to build sustainable mental health support capacity by empowering teachers. A quasi-experimental study with a matched control group was conducted in 20 public high schools in South Sumatera, Indonesia. Ten schools (n=150 teachers, n=1500 students) received the TtT intervention, where core teachers were trained to cascade mental health literacy and foundational support skills to their peers. Ten matched schools (n=145 teachers, n=1450 students) served as a control group. Data on teacher self-efficacy, student-reported support awareness, and school mental health policies were collected at baseline, 6-months, and 12-months. A linear mixed-effects model revealed a significant time-by-group interaction, with teachers in the intervention group reporting substantially higher confidence in supporting students at 12 months (M=4.15, 95% CI [4.01, 4.29]) compared to the control group (M=2.51, 95% CI [2.37, 2.65]), a large effect (d=2.41). Intervention students were significantly more likely to know how to access support (78% vs. 27%; OR=9.82, 95% CI [8.11, 11.89], p < 0.001). Intervention schools demonstrated a massive increase in formalized mental health protocols compared to control schools (IRR=7.94, p < 0.001). In conclusion, the TtT model is a highly effective and scalable strategy for building a foundational mental health support system within existing school structures in resource-constrained settings. By investing in local educators, this model fosters a sustainable, multi-tiered support ecosystem, offering a viable pathway for national policy and practice in Indonesia.

Systemic Contagion or Digital Diversifier? A Dynamic Quantification of the Cryptocurrency Market's Evolving Role in Global Financial Risk Transmission Abdul Malik; Gayatri Putri; Hesti Putri; Ahmad Badruddin
Enigma in Economics Vol. 3 No. 2 (2025): Enigma in Economics
Publisher : Enigma Institute

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.61996/economy.v3i2.99

The proliferation of crypto-assets has raised critical questions about their impact on global financial stability. This study rigorously investigates the structural evolution of the cryptocurrency market's role within the global financial system, testing the hypothesis that it has transitioned from a peripheral, shock-absorbing entity into a systemically significant transmitter of financial risk. We employ a Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregression (TVP-VAR) model on daily data from January 1, 2017, to December 31, 2024, examining the dynamic connectedness between a bespoke, rebalanced cryptocurrency index (CRIX20) and key global financial indicators (S&P 500, MSCI World, VIX, DXY). The econometric framework utilizes a Bayesian estimation approach with standard priors, a 200-day rolling window, and a 10-day forecast horizon for Generalized Forecast Error Variance Decompositions (GFEVD). Methodological robustness is confirmed through structural break tests and sensitivity analysis of the forecast horizon. Our findings reveal a profound structural transformation. Prior to mid-2020, the cryptocurrency market was a consistent net receiver of financial spillovers. A structural break, formally identified in the third quarter of 2020, marks a definitive regime shift. Post-break, the crypto market has become a significant and persistent net transmitter of risk to the traditional financial system. The total connectedness index for the entire system shows a marked secular increase, with the crypto market's contribution to systemic risk growing substantially. Gross spillover analysis confirms this shift is driven by a dramatic increase in risk transmission from the crypto market to other assets. In conclusion, the cryptocurrency market can no longer be considered an isolated ecosystem; it is now an integral and potentially destabilizing component of the global financial architecture. The era of crypto-assets as reliable diversifiers has waned, replaced by a new reality where shocks originating within this market pose a credible threat to broader financial stability. These findings present urgent challenges for regulatory oversight, systemic risk monitoring, and portfolio management.

Governing the Algorithm: A Mediation Analysis of Digital Transformation, Bureaucratic Discretion, and Service Quality in a Developing Democracy Emir Abdullah; Aylin Yermekova; Benyamin Wongso; Ahmad Badruddin
Open Access Indonesia Journal of Social Sciences Vol. 8 No. 4 (2025): Open Access Indonesia Journal of Social Sciences
Publisher : HM Publisher

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.37275/oaijss.v8i4.293

Governments worldwide are implementing digital transformation policies to enhance public service delivery. However, the impact of these algorithm-driven systems on street-level bureaucrats remains critically under-examined. This study investigates the complex pathways through which Indonesia's e-government policy affects bureaucratic work and service outcomes. This study employed a mixed-methods explanatory sequential design. Quantitative data were collected from 500 public officials across five Indonesian provinces. An E-Government Implementation Index (EGII) was constructed. We used Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression and a formal mediation analysis with bootstrapping to analyze the relationships between EGII, Perceived Bureaucratic Discretion (PBD), and Bureaucrat-Perceived Public Service Quality (B-PSQ). This was supplemented by 20 in-depth, semi-structured interviews to explain the statistical findings. Regression analysis confirmed a significant negative association between EGII and PBD (β = -0.47, p < 0.001) and a significant positive association between EGII and B-PSQ (β = 0.62, p < 0.001). The mediation analysis revealed that EGII has a strong, positive direct effect on B-PSQ (Effect = 0.57, p < 0.001) and a small but significant negative indirect effect through the reduction of PBD (Effect = -0.05, p < 0.01). Qualitative data revealed that officials feel constrained by "algorithmic cages" that, while improving efficiency, limit their ability to handle exceptional cases, thereby risking service equity for marginalized citizens. In conclusion, Indonesia’s digital transformation presents a complex trade-off. It successfully enhances administrative efficiency but simultaneously curtails the beneficial discretion of frontline bureaucrats, creating a small but significant drag on service quality. Effective digital governance requires a hybrid model that embeds algorithmic systems within a framework that empowers, rather than replaces, human judgment.

Governing the Algorithm: A Mediation Analysis of Digital Transformation, Bureaucratic Discretion, and Service Quality in a Developing Democracy Emir Abdullah; Aylin Yermekova; Benyamin Wongso; Ahmad Badruddin
Open Access Indonesia Journal of Social Sciences Vol. 8 No. 4 (2025): Open Access Indonesia Journal of Social Sciences
Publisher : HM Publisher

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.37275/oaijss.v8i4.293

Governments worldwide are implementing digital transformation policies to enhance public service delivery. However, the impact of these algorithm-driven systems on street-level bureaucrats remains critically under-examined. This study investigates the complex pathways through which Indonesia's e-government policy affects bureaucratic work and service outcomes. This study employed a mixed-methods explanatory sequential design. Quantitative data were collected from 500 public officials across five Indonesian provinces. An E-Government Implementation Index (EGII) was constructed. We used Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression and a formal mediation analysis with bootstrapping to analyze the relationships between EGII, Perceived Bureaucratic Discretion (PBD), and Bureaucrat-Perceived Public Service Quality (B-PSQ). This was supplemented by 20 in-depth, semi-structured interviews to explain the statistical findings. Regression analysis confirmed a significant negative association between EGII and PBD (β = -0.47, p < 0.001) and a significant positive association between EGII and B-PSQ (β = 0.62, p < 0.001). The mediation analysis revealed that EGII has a strong, positive direct effect on B-PSQ (Effect = 0.57, p < 0.001) and a small but significant negative indirect effect through the reduction of PBD (Effect = -0.05, p < 0.01). Qualitative data revealed that officials feel constrained by "algorithmic cages" that, while improving efficiency, limit their ability to handle exceptional cases, thereby risking service equity for marginalized citizens. In conclusion, Indonesia’s digital transformation presents a complex trade-off. It successfully enhances administrative efficiency but simultaneously curtails the beneficial discretion of frontline bureaucrats, creating a small but significant drag on service quality. Effective digital governance requires a hybrid model that embeds algorithmic systems within a framework that empowers, rather than replaces, human judgment.

Title

Found 7 Documents
Search

Abstract

Abstract

Abstract

Abstract

Abstract

Abstract

Abstract

Title Search

Found 7 Documents Search

Abstract

Abstract

Abstract

Abstract

Abstract

Abstract

Abstract

Title

Found 7 Documents
Search