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Ifah Shandy
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Religion Arts Humanities Economics, Econometrics & Finance Languange, Linguistic, Communication & Media Medicine & Pharmacology Social Sciences

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Navigating the Post-ETF Paradigm: An Integrative Multi-Factor Model for Projecting Bitcoin's 2025 Market Cycle Apex Abdul Malik; Ahmad Badruddin; Mary-Jane Wood; Sonia Vernanda; Gladys Putri; Ifah Shandy; Darlene Sitorus; Delia Tamim
Enigma in Economics Vol. 3 No. 1 (2025): Enigma in Economics
Publisher : Enigma Institute

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.61996/economy.v3i1.91

Abstract

Bitcoin’s market structure underwent a fundamental and irreversible transformation following the 2024 regulatory approval and launch of spot Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) in the United States. This event catalyzed an unprecedented wave of institutional adoption, signaling the asset's maturation from a fringe, retail-driven speculative vehicle into an emergent institutional-grade macro-asset. This study moves beyond traditional cyclical models, which are predicated on historical, pre-institutional market dynamics, to analyze Bitcoin's valuation within this profoundly evolved landscape. The primary objective is to project the potential price apex for Bitcoin in the 2024-2025 market cycle by developing and applying a transparent, replicable, and comprehensive multi-factor analytical framework. A multi-factorial, longitudinal analysis was conducted using a combination of publicly available data and simulated datasets from Q1 2022 to Q2 2025. The model is built upon a structured, semi-quantitative framework designed to synthesize three core analytical pillars: (1) Macroeconomic Environment, quantitatively assessing the impact of Federal Reserve interest rate policy, US Dollar Index (DXY) dynamics, and inflation trends through correlation analysis and sensitivity modeling. (2) On-Chain Intelligence, utilizing a suite of metrics from primary sources like Glassnode, including MVRV Z-Score, LTH-SOPR, and Illiquid Supply growth, while critically evaluating the continued validity of their historical thresholds. (3) Market & Flow Dynamics, which integrates technical analysis with a rigorous, quantitative assessment of spot ETF demand versus daily new supply, moving beyond subjective interpretations of price charts. A transparent weighting rubric was developed to integrate the findings from each pillar, mitigating subjective bias and ensuring the analytical synthesis is replicable. The synthesis of the model's components revealed a powerful confluence of bullish factors projected to intensify through late 2024 and into 2025. The Macroeconomic pillar scored moderately positive, forecasting a probable shift to monetary easing. The On-Chain pillar registered a strongly positive score, driven by a profound and persistent supply shock, evidenced by record illiquid supply growth and sustained exchange outflows, indicating strong holder conviction. The Market & Flow Dynamics pillar also scored strongly positive, with institutional demand via ETFs consistently outstripping newly mined supply by a significant multiple. The model's base-case scenario, derived from the weighted synthesis of these pillars, projects a Bitcoin price apex in the range of $150,000 to $200,000, with the most probable timing for this peak occurring between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025. In conclusion, the findings indicate that the 2024-2025 Bitcoin market cycle is fundamentally distinct from its predecessors, primarily driven by a structural, institutional-led demand shock that interacts with, and is amplified by, traditional macroeconomic tailwinds and established cyclical patterns. The projected price apex reflects a market structure that has matured, with future cycles likely to be more influenced by global liquidity conditions than the halving event alone. This research provides a robust, transparent, and theoretically grounded framework for valuing Bitcoin in its new role within the global financial system and offers a template for future analysis of digital assets as they integrate with traditional finance.
Empowering Educators, Supporting Students: A Quasi-Experimental Evaluation of a Train-the-Trainer Model for School Mental Health in Indonesia Ahmad Badruddin; Omar Alieva; Ifah Shandy; Henny Kesuma; Benyamin Wongso; Winata Putri; Habiburrahman Said
Indonesian Community Empowerment Journal Vol. 5 No. 2 (2025): Indonesian Community Empowerment Journal
Publisher : HM Publisher

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.37275/icejournal.v5i2.49

Abstract

Adolescent mental health is a pressing concern in urban Indonesian schools, where a significant gap exists between student needs and the availability of professional support. This study evaluated the efficacy of a culturally-adapted, school-based "Train-the-Trainer" (TtT) community service model designed to build sustainable mental health support capacity by empowering teachers. A quasi-experimental study with a matched control group was conducted in 20 public high schools in South Sumatera, Indonesia. Ten schools (n=150 teachers, n=1500 students) received the TtT intervention, where core teachers were trained to cascade mental health literacy and foundational support skills to their peers. Ten matched schools (n=145 teachers, n=1450 students) served as a control group. Data on teacher self-efficacy, student-reported support awareness, and school mental health policies were collected at baseline, 6-months, and 12-months. A linear mixed-effects model revealed a significant time-by-group interaction, with teachers in the intervention group reporting substantially higher confidence in supporting students at 12 months (M=4.15, 95% CI [4.01, 4.29]) compared to the control group (M=2.51, 95% CI [2.37, 2.65]), a large effect (d=2.41). Intervention students were significantly more likely to know how to access support (78% vs. 27%; OR=9.82, 95% CI [8.11, 11.89], p < 0.001). Intervention schools demonstrated a massive increase in formalized mental health protocols compared to control schools (IRR=7.94, p < 0.001). In conclusion, the TtT model is a highly effective and scalable strategy for building a foundational mental health support system within existing school structures in resource-constrained settings. By investing in local educators, this model fosters a sustainable, multi-tiered support ecosystem, offering a viable pathway for national policy and practice in Indonesia.
Ephemeral Inscriptions: Graffiti, Gentrification, and the Struggle for Public Space in the Indonesian Metropolis Bimala Putri; Omar Alieva; Henny Kesuma; Ifah Shandy; Ni Made Nova Indriyani
Enigma in Cultural Vol. 3 No. 1 (2025): Enigma in Cultural
Publisher : Enigma Institute

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.61996/cultural.v3i1.105

Abstract

The visual landscape of the contemporary city is a contested terrain where cultural expression and economic forces collide. This study investigates the complex relationship between graffiti practices and gentrification in Indonesia, moving beyond a simple resistance-versus-commodity binary to analyze graffiti as a dialectical force in urban transformation. It examines how graffiti functions as a mode of spatial inscription, a carrier of urban affect, and a critical barometer of the struggle for the right to the city in the Global South. This research employed a longitudinal, mixed-methods, comparative case study design, focusing on the Glok district in Jakarta and the Braga district in Bandung (2019-2025). The methodology integrated quantitative spatio-temporal GIS analysis of 1,250 graffiti pieces correlated with economic data, and a systematic content analysis of their form and themes. This was triangulated with deep qualitative data from 24 months of ethnographic fieldwork and 45 semi-structured interviews with artists, residents, and officials. A critical positionality statement reflects on the ethical praxis of the research. The findings reveal a clear trajectory where illicit, text-based graffiti, initially prevalent in peripheral spaces, created a subcultural "symbolic economy." This was followed by a spatial and formal shift towards large-scale, sanctioned murals in prime commercial zones. Quantitative analysis established a strong correlation (r = 0.78) between mural density and rising commercial rents, but this is interpreted cautiously to avoid assumptions of direct causality. Ethnographic vignettes and interview data reveal the affective dimensions of this transformation, highlighting how the changing streetscape is experienced as a loss of place by long-term residents and consumed as an aesthetic "vibe" by newcomers, while artists navigate complex issues of agency and co-optation. In conclusion, the evolution of graffiti from illicit inscription to curated aesthetic mirrors the process of gentrification. The study concludes that while the co-optation of street art is a powerful force in neoliberal place-branding, the practice remains a site of contested agency and meaning-making. The concept of "ephemeral inscriptions" is proposed to better capture the performative, transient, and deeply political nature of these markings as they chronicle the ongoing struggle for spatial justice.
Virtual Veneration: A Critical Inquiry into the Sacralization and Valorization of Digital Heritage in the Metaverse Ifah Shandy; Kevin Setiawan; Khalil Jibran; Caelin Damayanti
Enigma in Cultural Vol. 3 No. 2 (2025): Enigma in Cultural
Publisher : Enigma Institute

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.61996/cultural.v3i2.111

Abstract

The emergence of the metaverse presents a paradigm shift for how cultural heritage is experienced and valued. While technical digitization is well-studied, the socio-cultural processes by which digital objects acquire profound, quasi-sacred meaning remain critically underexplored. This study undertakes a critical inquiry into "virtual veneration," examining the mechanisms through which digital artifacts are sacralized and valorized within metaverse environments. A sequential explanatory mixed-methods design was employed. Phase one involved a qualitative thematic analysis of three leading metaverse platforms (Decentraland, The Sandbox, VRChat) to identify key features of value creation. Phase two was a large-scale quantitative analysis of behavioral data from a diverse cohort of 10,000 users within the Virtual Artifact Interaction Model (VAIM), a controlled experimental environment. Acknowledging the philosophical limits of measuring "sacredness," we developed a composite "Index of High-Value Collective Attention" (HVCA) based on metrics of dwell time, interaction frequency, and social signal amplification to operationalize the behavioral markers of veneration. The qualitative analysis revealed three core themes: "The Architecture of Awe," "Ritualized Communitas," and "The Aura of Scarcity." The quantitative analysis demonstrated that "Community Narrative" was the most powerful predictor of an artifact's HVCA score (), far exceeding the impact of authenticity or scarcity. A significant synergistic effect was found between environmental conditions of "Exclusive Access" and "Ritualistic Interaction" (), confirming that architectural framing and social protocols work in concert. Social proof directed 65.4% of user attention, indicating that valorization is a socially contingent and path-dependent process. In conclusion, the sacralization of digital heritage is a complex socio-technical process contingent on platform design, community ritual, and perceived authenticity. However, this study concludes that these mechanisms, particularly when mediated by speculative economies, create a "networked aura" that functions as a political inversion of Walter Benjamin's original concept, re-ritualizing art for markets. The findings suggest the emergence of a "hyper-sacred"—emotionally potent but ontologically unmoored—posing profound ethical and philosophical questions for the future of cultural value.
Co-Authors Abdul Malik Ahmad Badruddin Benyamin Wongso Bimala Putri Caelin Damayanti Darlene Sitorus Delia Tamim Gladys Putri Habiburrahman Said Henny Kesuma Kevin Setiawan Khalil Jibran Mary-Jane Wood Ni Made Nova Indriyani Omar Alieva Sonia Vernanda Winata Putri