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All Journal Open Access Indonesia Journal of Social Sciences Open Access Indonesia Journal of Social Sciences
Amir Serikova
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Humanities Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Environmental Science Law, Crime, Criminology & Criminal Justice Social Sciences

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The Fault Lines of Modernity: A Mixed-Methods Autopsy of State Power, Social Resistance, and Identity Dialectics in Indonesia's New Capital Project Amir Serikova; Henry Clifford; Muhammad Faiz
Open Access Indonesia Journal of Social Sciences Vol. 8 No. 4 (2025): Open Access Indonesia Journal of Social Sciences
Publisher : HM Publisher

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.37275/oaijss.v8i4.295

Abstract

The state-led relocation of Indonesia's capital to Nusantara (IKN) is a monumental project framed as a leap into a sustainable future. However, this top-down imposition of modernity is creating deep social fissures on the ground. This study conducts a sociological autopsy of the IKN development, dissecting the intricate mechanisms of resistance, displacement, and identity formation among affected communities. We employed a concurrent embedded mixed-methods design in North Penajam Paser, East Kalimantan (Jan 2024–Mar 2025). A structured survey was administered to 500 households, selected via a multi-stage sampling process, to quantify displacement anxieties and resistance participation. This was triangulated with 50 in-depth interviews with community leaders, displaced residents, and officials. Quantitative data were analyzed using t-tests and a Negative Binomial regression model to identify predictors of resistance, while qualitative data were analyzed thematically. Survey data revealed profound anxiety, with indigenous communities reporting significantly higher distress levels (t(498) = 10.2, p < 0.001). The Negative Binomial regression identified indigenous status (IRR=3.45, p<0.001), reliance on agro-forestry (IRR=2.88, p<0.001), and higher anxiety scores (IRR=1.12, p<0.001) as significant predictors of increased participation in resistance activities. Qualitative findings uncovered a sophisticated "tripartite arsenal" of resistance (symbolic, material, legal) and documented the emergence of a "Janus-faced" state, perceived as both coercively present and procedurally absent. In conclusion, the IKN project is a site of intense social struggle where competing modernities collide. State-led development, without genuine participation, engenders resilient and adaptive forms of social resistance and catalyzes a dialectical process of identity politicization. We argue that IKN risks becoming a landscape of exclusionary modernity unless a fundamental shift towards rights-based development is enacted.
The Fault Lines of Modernity: A Mixed-Methods Autopsy of State Power, Social Resistance, and Identity Dialectics in Indonesia's New Capital Project Amir Serikova; Henry Clifford; Muhammad Faiz
Open Access Indonesia Journal of Social Sciences Vol. 8 No. 4 (2025): Open Access Indonesia Journal of Social Sciences
Publisher : HM Publisher

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.37275/oaijss.v8i4.295

Abstract

The state-led relocation of Indonesia's capital to Nusantara (IKN) is a monumental project framed as a leap into a sustainable future. However, this top-down imposition of modernity is creating deep social fissures on the ground. This study conducts a sociological autopsy of the IKN development, dissecting the intricate mechanisms of resistance, displacement, and identity formation among affected communities. We employed a concurrent embedded mixed-methods design in North Penajam Paser, East Kalimantan (Jan 2024–Mar 2025). A structured survey was administered to 500 households, selected via a multi-stage sampling process, to quantify displacement anxieties and resistance participation. This was triangulated with 50 in-depth interviews with community leaders, displaced residents, and officials. Quantitative data were analyzed using t-tests and a Negative Binomial regression model to identify predictors of resistance, while qualitative data were analyzed thematically. Survey data revealed profound anxiety, with indigenous communities reporting significantly higher distress levels (t(498) = 10.2, p < 0.001). The Negative Binomial regression identified indigenous status (IRR=3.45, p<0.001), reliance on agro-forestry (IRR=2.88, p<0.001), and higher anxiety scores (IRR=1.12, p<0.001) as significant predictors of increased participation in resistance activities. Qualitative findings uncovered a sophisticated "tripartite arsenal" of resistance (symbolic, material, legal) and documented the emergence of a "Janus-faced" state, perceived as both coercively present and procedurally absent. In conclusion, the IKN project is a site of intense social struggle where competing modernities collide. State-led development, without genuine participation, engenders resilient and adaptive forms of social resistance and catalyzes a dialectical process of identity politicization. We argue that IKN risks becoming a landscape of exclusionary modernity unless a fundamental shift towards rights-based development is enacted.
Beyond Financial Constraints: Economic Precarity, Psychological Safety, and the ‘Marriage Postponement’ Phenomenon—A Cox Proportional Hazards Analysis of Gen Z’s Life Transitions in Urban Indonesia Hanifah Yasin; Henry Peter Paul; Harun Urrashid; Amir Serikova
Open Access Indonesia Journal of Social Sciences Vol. 8 No. 5 (2025): Open Access Indonesia Journal of Social Sciences
Publisher : HM Publisher

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.37275/oaijss.v8i5.307

Abstract

Indonesia is witnessing a significant demographic shift where Gen Z increasingly delays marriage, a departure from traditional norms. This study investigates how economic precarity—characterized by job instability and rising living costs—impacts the timing of marital transitions. Utilizing a longitudinal dataset of 1,500 urban-dwelling Gen Z individuals (ages 18–28) in Jakarta, Surabaya, and Bandung, this research employs Survival Analysis, specifically Kaplan-Meier and Cox Proportional Hazards models, to identify the hazard of marriage relative to economic indicators. The findings reveal that Gig Economy employment reduces the marriage hazard rate by 42 percent compared to formal sector employment. High debt-to-income ratios and housing unaffordability are identified as primary predictors of postponement. Interestingly, female Gen Zers with high educational attainment show a higher propensity for postponement, citing the double burden of domestic and professional roles. In conclusion, marriage in urban Indonesia is no longer just a social milestone but a calculated economic risk. Policy interventions should focus on housing stability and formalizing the informal labor market to support demographic sustainability.
Beyond Financial Constraints: Economic Precarity, Psychological Safety, and the ‘Marriage Postponement’ Phenomenon—A Cox Proportional Hazards Analysis of Gen Z’s Life Transitions in Urban Indonesia Hanifah Yasin; Henry Peter Paul; Harun Urrashid; Amir Serikova
Open Access Indonesia Journal of Social Sciences Vol. 8 No. 5 (2025): Open Access Indonesia Journal of Social Sciences
Publisher : HM Publisher

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.37275/oaijss.v8i5.307

Abstract

Indonesia is witnessing a significant demographic shift where Gen Z increasingly delays marriage, a departure from traditional norms. This study investigates how economic precarity—characterized by job instability and rising living costs—impacts the timing of marital transitions. Utilizing a longitudinal dataset of 1,500 urban-dwelling Gen Z individuals (ages 18–28) in Jakarta, Surabaya, and Bandung, this research employs Survival Analysis, specifically Kaplan-Meier and Cox Proportional Hazards models, to identify the hazard of marriage relative to economic indicators. The findings reveal that Gig Economy employment reduces the marriage hazard rate by 42 percent compared to formal sector employment. High debt-to-income ratios and housing unaffordability are identified as primary predictors of postponement. Interestingly, female Gen Zers with high educational attainment show a higher propensity for postponement, citing the double burden of domestic and professional roles. In conclusion, marriage in urban Indonesia is no longer just a social milestone but a calculated economic risk. Policy interventions should focus on housing stability and formalizing the informal labor market to support demographic sustainability.
Co-Authors Hanifah Yasin Harun Urrashid Henry Clifford Henry Peter Paul Nurwijayanti