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INDONESIA
Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan
Published by Kementerian Perdagangan
ISSN : 19799187     EISSN : 25282751     DOI : -
Core Subject : Economy,
Economics, Econometrics & Finance
First published in 2007, Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan (BILP) is a scientific journal published by the Trade Analysis dan Development Agency (Badan Pengkajian dan Pengembangan Perdagangan - BPPP), Ministry of Trade, Republic of Indonesia. This bulletin is expected to be a media of dissemination and analysis of research results to be used as references for academics, practitioners, policy-makers, and the general public. In collaboration with professional associations, The Indonesian Society of Agricultural Economics (Perhimpunan Ekonomi Pertanian Indonesia - PERHEPI), BILP publishes research reports and analysis of trade sector and/or sector-related trade which have not been published in any other journals/scholarly publications, either in Bahasa Indonesia or English. Publishing twice a year in July and December, this Bulletin is directly disseminated to stakeholders both in print and online.
Arjuna Subject : -
Articles 209 Documents
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TRADE CREATION DAN TRADE DIVERSION ATAS PEMBERLAKUAN ACFTA TERHADAP PERDAGANGAN HORTIKULTURA INDONESIA Naufal Nur Mahdi; Suharno; Rita Nurmalina
Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol 15 No 1 (2021):
Publisher : Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30908/bilp.v15i1.489

Abstract

Abstrak Dampak positif seharusnya diperoleh subsektor hortikultura Indonesia atas implementasi ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement (ACFTA). Namun demikian, subsektor hortikultura Indonesia belum memberikan kinerja yang berarti ketika impor produk hortikultura meningkat melalui tahapan penurunan tarif ACFTA dalam program The Early Harvest Program (EHP). Studi ini meneliti keragaan impor hortikultura Indonesia dengan menggunakan deskriptif analisis. Studi ini juga menganalisis daya saing produk hortikultura negara ASEAN-5 dengan China serta dampak kreasi perdagangan dan diversi perdagangan atas pemberlakuan ACFTA terhadap impor produk hortikultura Indonesia. Penelitian ini menggunakan metode RSCA (Revealed Symetric Comparative Advantage) dan metode ekonometrik melalui pendekatan model gravitasi dengan data panel dari tahun 2001-2018. Hasil studi menunjukkan bahwa berdasarkan nilai RSCA, Indonesia tidak berdaya saing pada kedua jenis produk hortikultura tersebut. Model gravitasi juga menunjukkan bahwa negara anggota ACFTA mampu memanfaatkan perjanjian regional ini dengan ditandai tingginya nilai impor hortikultura Indonesia terutama dari China. Ini menandakan bahwa pelaksanaan ACFTA telah menciptakan efek penciptaan perdagangan dengan meningkatkan perdagangan intra-regional antara negara anggota ACFTA, namun tidak menyebabkan pengalihan perdagangan dengan negara non-anggota (perdagangan dengan negara non anggota tidak mengalami penurunan). Oleh karena itu, diperlukan langkah kebijakan peningkatan daya saing melalui perbaikan komponen manajerial dan teknologi seiring terbukanya pasar di kawasan ini bagi UMKM Indonesia. Kata Kunci: Data Panel, Daya Saing, Integrasi Ekonomi, Model Gravitasi, RSCA Abstract The positive impact of the implementation of the ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement (ACFTA) on the indonesia’s horticulture sub-sector should be obtained. However, the Indonesian horticulture sub-sector has not shown significant performance when import of horticultural products has increased through the ACFTA tariff reduction stages in The Early Harvest Programm (EHP). This study examines the performance of Indonesian horticultural imports using descriptive analysis. It also analyzes the competitiveness of horticultural products of ASEAN-5 countries with China as well as the impact of trade creation and trade diversion of the implementation of ACFTA on imports of Indonesian horticultural products. It uses the RSCA (Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage) index and the gravity model using panel data from 2001-2018. It shows that Indonesia is not competitive in both types of horticultural products (RSCA <0). The gravity model also indicates that ACFTA member countries have taken advantage of this regional agreement, marked by the high value of Indonesian horticultural imports, especially from China. This shows that the implementation of the ACFTA has created a trade creation effect by increasing intra-regional trade between ACFTA member countries, but has not led to a diversion of trade with non-member countries (trade with non-member countries has not decreased). Therefore, it is necessary to make policy strategies to increase competitiveness through improvements in managerial and technological components in line with the opening of the market in this region to Indonesian MSMEs. Keywords: Competitiveness, Economic Integration, Gravity Model, Panel Data, RSCA JEL Classification: F15, F17, Q17
VOLATILITAS DAN TRANSMISI HARGA DAGING SAPI DI INDONESIA: STUDI KASUS DI JAKARTA, BANDUNG, SEMARANG DAN SURABAYA Komalawati; Ratna Winandi Asmarantaka; Rita Nurmalina; dedi budiman hakim
Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol 15 No 1 (2021):
Publisher : Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30908/bilp.v15i1.491

Abstract

Abstrak Daging sapi merupakan salah satu komoditas strategis dengan harga yang cukup berfluktuasi. Fluktuasi harga daging sapi dapat berpengaruh terhadap produsen, konsumen, dan industri pengolahan daging sapi skala kecil. Besarnya perubahan harga daging sapi yang terjadi di suatu pasar dapat memengaruhi pasar lainnya dan dapat digunakan untuk mengetahui kekuatan suatu pasar. Kajian ini bertujuan untuk mengkaji volatilitas dan transmisi harga daging sapi di sentra konsumen Jakarta dan sentra produsen Bandung, Semarang dan Surabaya. Data yang digunakan adalah data harian daging sapi. Volatilitas harga harian daging sapi dianalisis dengan menggunakan model GARCH dan transmisi harga dikaji dengan menggunakan model VAR/VECM. Hasil kajian menunjukkan bahwa hanya harga daging sapi Jakarta yang memiliki volatilitas rendah namun persisten dalam jangka panjang. Perubahan harga daging sapi ditransmisikan dua arah dari Jakarta ke Bandung dan Semarang, dan hanya searah dari Jakarta ke Surabaya. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa upaya stabilisasi harga daging sapi dapat dilakukan dengan menjaga ketersediaan daging sapi baik melalui impor (jangka pendek dan menengah) maupun upaya penyediaan bibit sapi dan sapi potong lokal dalam jangka panjang. Iklim usaha daging sapi yang kompetitif juga diperlukan agar ketidaksesuaian perubahan harga antar pasar dapat dikurangi. Kata Kunci: Daging Sapi, Volatilitas, GARCH, Vector Auto Regression, Stabilisasi Harga Abstract Beef is one of the strategic commodities with fairly fluctuating prices. Fluctuations in beef prices could affect producers, consumers, and small-scale beef processing industries. The magnitude of changes in beef prices that occur in a market could affect other markets and could be used to determine the strength of a market. The purpose of this paper is to examine the volatility and transmission of beef prices in the consumer centers of Jakarta and the production centers of Bandung, Semarang and Surabaya. The data used is the daily data of beef. Daily price volatility of beef was analyzed using the GARCH model and price transmission was assessed using the VAR/VECM model. The results of the study show that only Jakarta beef prices have low volatility but are persistent in the long term. Changes in beef prices are transmitted in two directions from Jakarta to Bandung and Semarang, and only in one direction from Jakarta to Surabaya. The results of the analysis show that efforts to stabilize beef prices could be carried out by maintaining the availability of beef either through import (short and medium term) or efforts to provide cattle seeds and local beef cattle in the long term. A competitive beef business climate is also needed so that discrepancies in price changes between markets could be reduced. Keywords: Beef, Volatility, GARCH, Vector Auto Regression, Price Stabilisation JEL Classification: F12, F13, F15
EXCHANGE RATES ELASTICITY OF EXPORTS IN ASEAN: THE ROLE OF GLOBAL VALUE CHAINS Defy Oktaviani; Nagendra Shrestha
Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol 15 No 1 (2021):
Publisher : Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30908/bilp.v15i1.538

Abstract

Abstrak Perdebatan tentang pelemahan hubungan antara nilai tukar dan ekspor telah meningkat dalam beberapa tahun terakhir, dan meningkatnya tren perdagangan terkait rantai nilai global (Global Value Chain/GVC) diasumsikan menjadi sumber melemahnya hubungan di antara keduanya. Dengan menggunakan data spesifik industri manufaktur, studi ini bertujuan untuk menyelidiki dampak GVC pada hubungan Nilai Tukar Efektif Riil (Real Effective Exchange Rate/REER) dan ekspor di empat negara ASEAN. Estimasi dilakukan menggunakan regresi Least Square Dummy Variable (LSDV) untuk periode sampel dari tahun 2009 hingga 2015. Hasil penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa di Filipina, koefisien elastisitas nilai tukar ekspor dan partisipasi ke GVC tidak signifikan secara statistik. Sebaliknya di Indonesia dan Malaysia, secara rata-rata, integrasi ke GVC dengan berbagai pengukuran akan menurunkan elastisitas ekspor terhadap perubahan REER sekitar 70% sampai 89%. Lebih lanjut, estimasi terhadap data Thailand dan kelompok empat negara ASEAN menunjukkan bahwa partisipasi pada GVC mengubah nilai dan tanda elastisitas ekspor terhadap REER. Kata Kunci: Ekspor, Nilai Tukar, Rantai Nilai Global Abstract The debate on the issue of the disconnected relationship between exchange rates and exports has risen in recent years, with the growing trend of Global Value Chain (GVC)-related trade assumed to be the source of the weakening link between them. By employing manufacturing industry-specific data, this study aims to investigate the impact of GVC on the nexus of the Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) and exports in four ASEAN countries. The estimations are conducted using Least Square Dummy Variable (LSDV) regression for the sample period from 2009 to 2015. The findings of this study suggest that for the Philippines, the coefficients of exchange rate elasticity of export and participation to GVC are not statistically significant. Conversely, in the case of Indonesia and Malaysia, integration to GVC, with various measurements, will reduce the REER elasticity of exports by around 70% to 89% on average. Furthermore, the estimation data on Thailand and a group of four countries implies that the presence of GVC changes both the value and the sign of REER elasticity of exports. Keywords: Export, Exchange Rates, Global Value Chain JEL Classification: F14, F15, F31
ECO-LABELING AND INTERNATIONAL TRADE AGREEMENTS: THE CASE OF MARINE STEWARDSHIP COUNCIL CERTIFICATION FOR INDONESIA'S SHRIMP POTENTIAL MARKET Umi Karomah Yaumidin; Oman Zuas
Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol 15 No 2 (2021): .
Publisher : Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30908/bilp.v15i2.539

Abstract

Abstrak Artikel ini membahas analisis biaya dan manfaat dari Marine Stewardship Council (MSC) untuk ekspor udang putih (Litopenaeus vannamei) dan udang windu (Penaeus monodon) dari Indonesia. Penerapan MSC pada produk perikanan memang tidak wajib, tetapi dapat mempengaruhi kinerja eskpor Indonesia. Perhitungan analisa biaya dan manfaat untuk proyek MSC menggunakan beberapa pilihan yang dihitung ke dalam empat komponen analysis yang terpisah (Proyek, Privat, Efisiensi, dan kelompok penerima manfaat). Dengan menggunakan data tahun 2018 dan jangka waktu investasi selama 20 tahun, kajian ini membandingkan hasil investasi yang menerapkan standard MSC dengan hasil investasi yang tidak menerapkan standard MSC dengan mempertimbangkan hambatan dari biaya perdagangan internasional. Secara keselurahan, studi ini menunjukkan bahwa the Net Present Values (NPVs) and Internal Rate of Returns (IRRs) bersifat konsisten untuk semua pilihan analysis. Studi ini juga menyimpulkan bahwa berdasarkan hasil dari analisis pasar, Amerika Serikat adalah pasar yang menjanjikan bagi produk udang Indonesia yang berlabelkan MSC. Pemerintah Indonesia akan menikmati 13% kenaikan pendapatan dari pajak keuntungan bisnis tersebut, meskipun proyek ini tidak memberikan dampak perubahan kepada tenaga kerja tidak terampil. Oleh karena itu, studi ini merekomendasikan pemerintah Indonesia untuk mempromosikan program MSC untuk perikanan berkelanjutan, terutama bagi peningkatan kinerja eskpor udang Indonesia. Kata Kunci: Kebijakan Perdagangan, Perikanan Tangkap, Keberlanjutan, Cost-Benefit Analysis Abstract This paper discusses the cost and benefits analysis of the Marine Stewardship Council (MSC) for Indonesia's exports of white shrimp (Litopenaeus vannamei) and tiger prawns (Penaeus monodon). The MSC adoption is voluntary, but it is likely to affect the performance of Indonesia's exports. We use several options applied separately in four components analysis in performing the social cost and benefit analysis (Project, Private, Efficiency, and Referral Group). Using the 2018 data and a 20-year investment period, this study compares the investment results applying the MSC standard with the results without investing in the MSC procedures concerning the trade cost barriers. Overall, the results reveal that the Net Present Values (NPVs) and Internal Rate of Returns (IRRs) are consistent for all options in all feasibility component analyses. It concludes that based on market analysis, the US market is the promising market as a primary export destination for Indonesian shrimp products with MSC label. The government will benefit by 13% from profit taxes, while this project does not affect unskilled labor benefits. Therefore, it recommends that the Indonesian government take more action to promote the MSC program for sustainable fisheries and boost shrimp export performance. Keywords: Trade Policy, Capture Fisheries, Sustainability, Cost-Benefit Analysis JEL Classification: F13, Q22, Q56, H43
IDENTIFIKASI KENDALA PEMBIAYAAN KOMODITAS PERTANIAN SISTEM RESI GUDANG DI INDONESIA Karmex Siadari; M. Syamsul Maarif; Bustanul Arifin; Zulkifli Rangkuti Rangkuti
Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol 15 No 2 (2021): .
Publisher : Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30908/bilp.v15i2.555

Abstract

Abstrak Pembiayaan komoditas pertanian sistem resi gudang belum berlangsung sesuai harapan di Indonesia. Hal tersebut menurut beberapa studi karena masih banyak permasalahan penghambat. Studi ini mengidentifikasi kendala pembiayaan komoditas pertanian sistem resi gudang di Indonesia. Penelitian dilakukan melalui wawancara mendalam terhadap responden tertentu yang memiliki pengetahuan atau pengalaman pada pembiayaan komoditas pertanian berbasis sistem resi gudang yang diimplentasikan terhadap komoditas pertanian seperti kopi, lada, beras dan jagung. Data yang dikumpulkan diidentifikasi, dikelompokkan dan diklasifikasikan secara terstruktur di dalam pola berfikir strategis dan dianalisa secara analisa deskriptif. Penelitian ini berhasil menemukan faktor penghambat pembiayaan komoditas pertanian sistem resi gudang di Indonesia antara lain: ketidaksesuaian nilai manfaat yang dibangun dengan karakteristik petani di Indonesia khususnya petani kecil; keterbatasan sumber layanan, ketidakcocokan skema dan fitur pembiayaan, harga pembiayaan dan skala ekonomi petani, suplai informasi yang memengaruhi kesadaran pada pembiayaannya. Permasalahan tersebut harus dapat diminimalisasi sehingga meningkatkan aksesibilitas dan kelangsungan pembiayaan sistem SRG pada petani di Indonesia. Kata kunci: Pembiayaan Komoditas Pertanian, Kendala, Sistem Resi Gudang Abstract Agricultural commodity financing in the warehouse receipt system has not performed as expected in Indonesia. According to several studies, it is due to many obstacles hindering the system to grow. This study identifies the constraints on agricultural commodities financing on the warehouse receipt system. The research was conducted through in-depth interviews with certain respondents who have knowledge or experience in agricultural commodities financing based on a warehouse receipt system implemented on agricultural commodities such as coffee, pepper, rice, and maize. The collected data are identified, grouped, and classified in a structured manner in the pattern of strategic thinking and analyzed by descriptive analysis. The study succeeded to identify the barriers that hindering agricultural commodities financing in warehouse receipt system to grow in Indonesia: the incompatibility of the value built with the characteristics of agriculture business, especially for small farmers; limited financing sources, incompatibility of financing schemes and features, financing prices and farmer economies of scale and supply of information that affects awareness of financing. These problems must be minimized to encourage the accessibility and continuity of financing on WRS for farmers in Indonesia. Keywords: Agricultural Commodity Financing, Contraints, Warehouse Receipt System JEL Classification: D46, F6, F61, F65, Q14
ANALISIS PERDAGANGAN INTRA INDUSTRI REGIONAL COMPREHENSIVE ECONOMIC PARTNERSHIP (RCEP) PADA PRODUK PERTANIAN Rahma Meiliza Putri; Amzul Rifin; Erwidodo
Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol 15 No 2 (2021): .
Publisher : Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30908/bilp.v15i2.570

Abstract

Abstrak Perdagangan intra-industri memainkan peranan penting dalam literatur ekonomi internasional saat ini. Pada tahun 2019, total ekspor Indonesia ke negara-negara anggota RCEP sebesar 61,65% dari total ekspor Indonesia, dan 44% dari total ekspor ke RCEP disumbang oleh sektor pertanian. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengkaji tingkat interdependensi Indonesia dengan 14 mitra dagangnya dalam RCEP. Data yang digunakan adalah data sekunder time series arus perdagangan komoditi pertanian Indonesia dengan negara-negara RCEP di tahun 2010-2019 yang diperoleh dari Trademap. Metode analisis data yang digunakan adalah intra-industry trade index. Hasil kajian pola perdagangan Indonesia dan RCEP yang diidentifikasi melalui keterkaitan perdagangan (IIT) menunjukkan komoditas yang memiliki nilai rata-rata IIT tertinggi adalah olahan tepung-tepungan (HS 19). Hal ini menunjukkan jika keterkaitan perdagangan Indonesia RCEP untuk produk tepung-tepungan (HS 19) bersifat dua arah (two-way trade). Sedangkan untuk negara, Malaysia adalah negara yang memiliki keterkaitan perdagangan terkuat dengan Indonesia. Nilai rata-rata IIT Indonesia-RCEP sebesar 19,74 menggambarkan keterkaitan banyak produk pertanian Indonesia dan RCEP yang masih rendah dan tergolong inter-industry trade. Rendahnya nilai IIT ini bisa saja disebabkan masih besarnya perdagangan satu arah di RCEP, dimana Indonesia masih dominan melakukan impor. Oleh karena itu, penting bagi pemerintah untuk lebih meningkatkan ekspor komoditas potensial dengan memberi insentif kepada industri pengolahan produk pertanian melalui keringanan pajak dalam jangka waktu tertentu. Kata kunci: Intra-industry Trade, RCEP, Sektor Pertanian Abstract Intra-industrial trade plays an important role in today's international economic literature. In 2019, Indonesia's total exports to RCEP member countries amounted to 61.65% of Indonesia's total exports, and 44% of total exports to RCEP were contributed by the agricultural sector. This study aims to examine the level of interdependence between Indonesia and its 14 trading partners in RCEP. The data used is secondary data from the time series of trade flows of agricultural commodities between Indonesia and RCEP countries in 2010-2019 which were obtained from Trademap. The data analysis method used is the intra-industry trade index. The results of the study show, if there is a tendency to increase the IIT index of Indonesia with trading partners, it's just that when viewed from each RCEP member, the IIT value still tends to fluctuate. Malaysia is an RCEP member country with the highest IIT score in its agricultural sector, on the other hand, the agricultural sector in Cambodia has the lowest IIT score. Cereal and flour processed commodities (HS 19) were the commodities with the highest IIT, while meat and edible meat scraps (HS 02) were the commodities with the lowest value. Based on the results of the IIT value, it can be seen that many agricultural products are still classified as inter-industry trade. Therefore, it is important for the government to further increase potential commodity exports by providing incentives to processing agricultural industries through tax breaks for a certain period. Keywords: Intra-industry Trade, RCEP, Agricultural Sector JEL Classification: F10, F13, F1
PENGARUH KUOTA EKSPOR TERHADAP HARGA KARET DOMESTIK INDONESIA Alfi Nurdina; Harmini; Amzul Rifin
Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol 15 No 2 (2021): .
Publisher : Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30908/bilp.v15i2.609

Abstract

Abstrak Agreed Export Tonnage Scheme merupakan kebijakan pembatasan kuota ekspor karet alam oleh Indonesia, Malaysia dan Thailand. Kebijakan ini diduga memengaruhi harga karet alam di tingkat petani. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pengaruh kebijakan kuota ekspor terhadap harga karet alam domestik Indonesia di tingkat petani. Penelitian menggunakan data time series bulanan dari Januari 2013 sampai Desember 2019 menggunakan Error Correction Model. Dalam jangka panjang, harga karet alam pada periode sebelumnya, nilai tukar, konsumsi, produksi dan harga karet alam dunia signifikan. Sementara itu, dalam jangka pendek, harga karet alam pada periode sebelumnya, nilai tukar, dan harga karet alam dunia juga signifikan. Variabel total ekspor dan dummy kebijakan tidak signifikan baik dalam jangka panjang maupun jangka pendek. Hal ini diduga karena harga karet alam tidak lagi bergantung pada faktor fundamental tetapi disebabkan oleh faktor eksternal lainnya. Perbaikan diperlukan, termasuk desain kebijakan yang komprehensif, implementasi dan evaluasi teknis yang jelas, serta kolaborasi tambahan dengan produsen karet alam lainnya. Selain itu, sejalan dengan kebijakan pembatasan ekspor, Indonesia perlu mendorong pertumbuhan industri pengolahan karet alam menjadi produk hilir. Kata Kunci: ECM, Karet Alam, Harga Domestik, AETS Abstract Agreed Export Tonnage Scheme is a policy of limiting natural rubber export quotas by Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand. This policy is suspected to affect the price of natural rubber at the farm level. This study aims to analyze the effect of the export quota policy on Indonesia's domestic natural rubber prices at the farm level. The study uses monthly time series data from January 2013 to December 2019 used Error Correction Model. In the long term, natural rubber prices in the previous period, exchange rate, consumption, production, and world natural rubber prices are significant. Meanwhile, in the short term, natural rubber prices in the previous period, exchange rates, and world price natural rubber were significant. The variable total exports and the policy dummy are not significant both in the long and short term. This is presumably because natural rubber prices no longer depend on fundamental factors but are caused by other external factors. Improvements are needed, including comprehensive policy design, clear technical implementation, and evaluation, as well as additional collaboration with other natural rubber producers. In addition, in line with the export restriction policy, Indonesia needs to encourage the growth of the natural rubber processing industry into downstream products Keywords: ECM, Natural Rubber, Domestic Price, AETS JEL Classification: Q17, Q18, Q21
STRUKTUR PASAR DAN DAYA SAING KARET ALAM INDONESIA DI AMERIKA SERIKAT Birka Septy Sembiring; Yusman Syaukat; Hastuti
Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol 15 No 2 (2021): .
Publisher : Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30908/bilp.v15i2.623

Abstract

Abstrak Karet alam Indonesia berperan penting dalam meningkatkan perekonomian nasional melalui ekspor karet alam ke berbagai negara, termasuk ke Amerika Serikat. Dalam upaya mengembangkan ekspor karet alamnya, Indonesia perlu melakukan kalkulasi posisi dan daya saing karet alam di antara negara-negara pesaing serta peluang pasarnya ke Amerika Serikat yang memiliki permintaan impor relatif tinggi. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah menganalisis struktur pasar, serta keunggulan komparatif dan kompetitif karet alam Indonesia di pasar Amerika Serikat. Analisis dilakukan selama periode tahun 2008-2019 menggunakan metode Herfindahl Index (HI), Concentration Ratio (CR4), Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA), Export Product Dynamic (EPD), dan Diamond’s Porter. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa struktur pasar karet alam Indonesia cenderung oligopoli. Dibandingkan dengan negara-negara eksportir lainnya, karet alam Indonesia memiliki keunggulan komparatif di pasar Amerika Serikat. Keunggulan kompetitif karet alam Indonesia di Amerika Serikat mengalami penurunan dari posisi lost opportunity pada periode pertama (2008-2011) menjadi retreat pada periode ketiga (2016-2019). Hasil dari Diamond’s Porter menunjukkan bahwa terdapat tujuh faktor keunggulan kompetitif dan tiga faktor kelemahan dalam industri karet alam di Indonesia. Kata Kunci: Concentration Ratio, Diamond’s Porter, EPD, Herfindahl Index, RCA Abstract Indonesian natural rubber plays a significant role in improving the national economy through exports of natural rubber to various countries, including the United States. In an effort to develop its natural rubber exports, Indonesia needs to calculate the position and competitiveness of natural rubber among competing countries and its market opportunities to the United States, which has a relatively high import demand. The purpose of this study is to analyze the market structure, as well as the comparative and competitive advantages of Indonesian natural rubber in the United States market. The analysis was carried out during the period 2008-2019 using the methods Herfindahl Index (HI), Concentration Ratio (CR4), Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA), Export Product Dynamic (EPD), and Diamond's Porter. The results of the analysis show that the structure of the Indonesian natural rubber market tends to be an oligopoly. Compared to other exporting countries, Indonesian natural rubber has a comparative advantage in the United States market. The competitiveness of Indonesian natural rubber in the US decline over time from the lost opportunity position in the first period (2008-2011) to retreat in the third period (2016-2019). The Diamond's Porter results show that there are seven competitive advantage factors and three weakness factors in Indonesia's natural rubber industry. Keywords: Concentration Ratio, Diamond’s Porter, EPD, Herfindahl Index, RCA JEL Classification: F13, F15, F18
SIMULASI KEBIJAKAN PADA IMPLEMENTASI PERJANJIAN KOMPREHENSIF INDONESIA-AUSTRALIA (IA-CEPA) TERHADAP PASAR DAGING SAPI DOMESTIK Najia Helmiah; Nasrudin
Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol 15 No 2 (2021): .
Publisher : Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30908/bilp.v15i2.633

Abstract

Abstrak Beberapa tahun terakhir, pemenuhan permintaan daging sapi di Indonesia masih bergantung pada impor khususnya dari Australia. Impor daging sapi dapat menstabilkan harga daging sapi domestik, tetapi di lain sisi dapat menekan pendapatan peternak lokal. Implementasi dari IA-CEPA adalah penghapusan tarif impor dan TRQ (Tariff Rate Quota) untuk komoditas sapi hidup. Penghapusan tarif menyebabkan harga sapi yang masuk ke Indonesia menjadi lebih murah dan memperbesar peluang peningkatan volume impor sapi hidup. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis skenario terbaik untuk meningkatkan kesejahteraan pelaku ekonomi dengan menggunakan model persamaan simultan 2SLS (two stage least square). Simulasi dilakukan untuk tiga skenario yaitu skenario penghapusan tarif, penetapan kuota, dan TRQ. Hasilnya menunjukkan bahwa skenario penghapusan tarif memberikan total peningkatan kesejahteraan pelaku ekonomi terbesar yaitu 115 miliar dengan rincian defisit 736 miliar bagi produsen, surplus 936 miliar bagi konsumen, dan defisit 85 miliar untuk penerimaan pemerintah. Oleh karena itu, skenario yang direkomendasikan adalah skenario penghapusan tarif pada impor sapi dari Australia. Kata Kunci: 2SLS, IA-CEPA, Pasar Daging Sapi Abstract Recently, demand fulfillment of beef in Indonesia depended on imports, especially from Australia. import can stabilize the domestic price of beef, but the other hand can suppress the income of local farmers. Implementation of IA-CEPA policies is the elimination of import tariff and TRQ (tariff rate quota) for live cattle commodities. Elimination of import tariff causes the price of cattle to enter Indonesia to be cheaper and increases the opportunity to increase the import volume of live cattle. The study aims to investigate the best scenario that can improve the welfare of economic actors using simultaneous equation model 2SLS (two-stage least squares). Three scenarios that simulated are eliminating tariff, setting quota, and TRQ. The result shows that eliminating tariffs gives the largest total welfare increase of economic actors that is 115 billion, with a 736 billion deficit for producers, 936 billion surplus for consumers, and 85 billion deficit for government revenue. Therefore, the policy recommendation is the scenario of eliminating tariffs on cattle imports from Australia. Keywords: 2SLS, IA-CEPA, Beef Market JEL Classification: C53, F12, F13
ANALISIS DAYA SAING SERTA FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMENGARUHI PANGSA PASAR NEGARA EKSPORTIR UTAMA KOPI DI NEGARA IMPORTIR UTAMA KOPI Manalu, Doni Sahat Tua; Harianto; Suharno; Hartoyo, Sri
Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol 16 No 1 (2022): BILP
Publisher : Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30908/bilp.v16i1.445

Abstract

Abstrak Negara eksportir utama kopi dunia dalam kurun waktu 1995-2017 adalah Brazil, Vietnam, Kolombia dan Indonesia. Sementara importir utama dunia adalah Amerika Serikat, Jepang, dan Jerman. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah untuk menganalisis daya saing komparatif negara eksportir utama kopi dunia dan menganalisis faktor-faktor yang memengaruhi pangsa pasar negara eksportir utama kopi di negara importir utama kopi. Data yang digunakan merupakan data sekunder menggunakan jenis data time series periode 1995-2017 dengan kode HS 090111. Metode analisis data yang digunakan adalah metode Revealed Comparative Advantage, Dynamic Revealed Comparative Advantage, dan metode Linear Approximate Almost Ideal Demand System. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa keempat negara eksportir utama kopi dunia memiliki daya saing yang bervariasi. Faktor-faktor yang memengaruhi pangsa pasar negara eksportir utama kopi di negara importir utama kopi adalah harga dan non harga. Rekomendasi yang diberikan memerlukan keterlibatan dari berbagai pihak (petani, pengusaha, dan pemerintah) mulai dari cara budidaya, pemeliharaan, panen, dan pasca panen yang benar dilakukan dengan memberikan penyuluhan melalui program pemerintah, penerapan sertifikasi mutu kopi serta kebijakan perdagangan dalam bentuk kerja sama bilateral. Kata Kunci: Kopi, Ekspor, Persaingan, Pasar Global Abstract The main exporting countries of world coffee in the period 1995-2017 were Brazil, Vietnam, Colombia, and Indonesia. The world's main importers are the United States, Japan, and Germany. The purpose of this study is to analyze the comparative competitiveness of the world's main coffee exporters and to analyze the factors that influence the market share of the major coffee exporting countries in the major coffee importing countries. The data used in this study is secondary data obtained from various sources using time series data for the period 1995 to 2017 with the HS code 090111. The data analysis method used is the Revealed Comparative Advantage, Dynamic Revealed Comparative Advantage, and Linear Approximate Almost Ideal Demand System. The results showed that the four major coffee exporters in the world had competitiveness. The factors that affect the market share of the main coffee exporting countries in the main coffee importing countries are price and non-price. The recommendations given require the involvement of various parties (farmers, entrepreneurs, and the governments) starting from the correct way of cultivation, harvesting, and post-harvest carried out by providing counseling through government programs, implementing coffee quality certification, and trade policies in the form of bilateral cooperation. Keywords: Coffee, Export, Competition, Global Market JEL Classification: C22, F13, O24, Q17

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