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Prosiding Seminar Nasional Official Statistics
Published by Politeknik Statistika STIS
ISSN : 27721970     EISSN : 27721970     DOI : https://doi.org/10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2022i1
Core Subject : Economy, Humanities, Science, Social,
Humanities Computer Science & IT Economics, Econometrics & Finance Social Sciences
prosiding seminar ini bertujuan untuk menghasilkan berbagai pemikiran solutif, inovatif, dan adaptif terkait isu, strategi, dan metode yang memanfaatkan official statistics
Arjuna Subject : Matematika - Statistik dan Probabilitas
Articles 729 Documents
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Digital Access and Women's Labor Transition in Indonesia: Structural Challenges in Achieving Sustainable Development Anggara, Rizki Tri; Alfahma, Elsya Gumayanti
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2025 No 1 (2025): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2025
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2025i1.2425

Abstract

Pandemi COVID-19 mempercepat perubahan dalam struktur ketenagakerjaan Indonesia dan meningkatkan kerentanan perempuan terhadap kehilangan pekerjaan layak. Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis faktor-faktor yang memengaruhi transisi kerja perempuan selama periode 2020–2022. Data SAKERNAS digunakan dalam analisis regresi logistik terhadap tiga jenis transisi, yaitu pekerjaan formal ke informal, formal ke pengangguran, dan informal ke pengangguran. Hasil menunjukkan bahwa usia, wilayah tempat tinggal, status pernikahan, pendidikan, pelatihan vokasional, dan sektor kerja secara signifikan memengaruhi arah transisi. Akses digital meningkatkan peluang kerja informal tetapi juga memperbesar risiko pengangguran tanpa dukungan keterampilan dan perlindungan sosial. Temuan ini menegaskan pentingnya kebijakan ketenagakerjaan yang adaptif, responsif gender, dan mendukung inklusi digital untuk memastikan transisi kerja perempuan yang lebih aman dan berkelanjutan.
Indeks Ekonomi Digital (IED): Pembentukan, Analisis, dan Implikasinya bagi Kebijakan Ekonomi Digital Level Provinsi Feriyanto, Muhamad; Lesmana, Muhammad Erza
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2025 No 1 (2025): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2025
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2025i1.2429

Abstract

The rapidly growing global digital economy offers significant transformative potential for Indonesia. However, regional digital divides and the lack of comprehensive measurement tools are crucial issues that hinder the optimization of potential and the formulation of data-driven policies. This study aims to develop a Provincial Digital Economy Index (DEI) to measure the development of the digital economy in Indonesia. Three methods were used in the formation of the DEI: weighted average with PCA and entropy weights, and geometric mean. The results show that the PCA-weighted I is relatively more robust against extreme values. The PCA-weighted DEI has a strong positive correlation (
Analisis Putus Sekolah Penduduk Usia 16-18 Tahun pada Jenjang Pendidikan Menengah di Provinsi Kalimantan Barat Tahun 2024 dengan Discrete-Time Shared Frailty Survival Model Raiqhan, Kenny Marsell Venezia; Sitorus, Jeffry Raja Hamonangan
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2025 No 1 (2025): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2025
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2025i1.2437

Abstract

Indonesia has committed to increasing secondary education participation through the Wajib Belajar Dua Belas Tahun program. However, many people still do not complete this level, especially in West Kalimantan Province, which recorded the lowest ALS in the Western Region of Indonesia. A significant decline in the high school NPR compared to the previous level also indicates a high dropout rate. This study aims to provide an overview, test variable significance, and analyze dropout risk among people aged 16–18 years at the secondary education level in West Kalimantan Province in 2024. The method used is survival analysis with the discrete-time shared frailty survival model, based on March 2024 Susenas data. Results show that employment status, online learning status, PIP acquisition status, relationship status with head of household, and head of household education level affect school dropout. People who do not receive PIP have the highest dropout risk.
Perbandingan Performa Metode Klasifikasi Regresi Logistik, Classification Tree, dan Random Forest (Studi kasus: Perkawinan Anak pada Perempuan Usia Muda di Nusa Tenggara Barat Tahun 2022) Pangestika, Dhita Elsha; Mustika, Diva Arum; Rahman, Ayub Abdul
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2025 No 1 (2025): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2025
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2025i1.2440

Abstract

Child marriage remains a persistent issue in Indonesia, particularly in West Nusa Tenggara Province. This study compares the performance of three classification methods—logistic regression, classification tree, and random forest—in predicting child marriage among young women. The analysis uses 2022 National Socio-Economic Survey (Susenas) data, which comprises 69 women aged 20–24 who had married and were still living with their parents. Model performance was evaluated using the Area Under the Curve (AUC) metric with 50 validation repetitions. Logistic regression yielded the highest AUC (77.86%), followed by random forest (76.07%) and classification tree (75.49%). These results indicate that logistic regression is more stable and suitable for linear, low-dimensional, and limited observational data. Additionally, education level and the household head’s type of employment were identified as key predictors of child marriage.
Pengaruh Perlindungan Sosial Terhadap Kesejahteraan Masyarakat Jawa Timur Menggunakan PLS-SEM Putri, Fitriani Aditya; Nursiyono, Joko Ade
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2025 No 1 (2025): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2025
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2025i1.2441

Abstract

Various social protection programs have been launched by both the East Java Provincial Government and the Central Government. However, social protection programs have not been optimal in reducing poverty rates and improving people's welfare in East Java. Based on the measurement of the Social Protection Index (IPS) of districts and cities from the dimensions of depth, coverage, and impact, the results show that the quality of the Social Protection Index (IPS) in East Java in 2022 is quite good. The highest IPS figures in 2022 were achieved by Pamekasan Regency, Probolinggo Regency, and Ponorogo Regency. These three regions have the highest IPS in 2022 because each region has a dominant dimension value. In addition, based on the results of the Partial Least Square Structural Equation Model (PLS-SEM) analysis, it was found that social protection has a significant effect on economic aspects, health aspects, and safety aspects. In order to improve the welfare of the people of East Java, the central government and regional governments are expected to optimize government spending on the Kartu Indonesia Sehat and beneficiary families (economic aspect), allocate a budget in the health sector for the prevention of Dengue Fever and Malaria (health aspect), and provide work accident insurance for all workers (safety aspect).
Analisis Spasial Faktor Sosial Ekonomi terhadap Angka Kematian Bayi di Pulau Papua Fitrial, Nadhifan Humam; Sari, Rahma Mutiara
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2025 No 1 (2025): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2025
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2025i1.2443

Abstract

Papua Island has the highest Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) in Indonesia, with significant disparities compared to other regions. This study analyzes the influence of socioeconomic factors on IMR in 2020, using data from the 2020 Long Form Population Census with 42 districts/cities as the unit of analysis. The variables examined include women’s average years of schooling, number of health facilities, access to safe drinking water, and the open unemployment rate. The analysis revealed significant spatial autocorrelation, leading to the use of the Spatial Error Model to capture geographical interdependence affecting IMR distribution. Results show that women’s average years of schooling and access to safe drinking water have a negative effect on IMR, while the number of health facilities has a positive effect. These findings highlight the importance of incorporating spatial aspects into health policies, focusing on improving women’s education, ensuring equitable health services, and expanding access to clean water.
Analisis Pengaruh Faktor Ekonomi terhadap Utang Luar Negeri di Tujuh Negara ASEAN Tahun 1999-2023 Barsua, Ni Putu Esti Utami; Ramadhani, Anindita Ayu; Ashari, Bagas; Iqbal, Naufal Muhammad; Yuliana, Rita
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2025 No 1 (2025): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2025
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2025i1.2448

Abstract

The debt-to-GDP ratio in seven ASEAN countries indicates moderate to high levels, accompanied by fiscal pressures due to exchange rate fluctuations and dependence on external financing. This condition reflects serious challenges in managing external debt that may affect regional economic stability. This study analyzes the influence of macroeconomic factors on external debt in seven ASEAN countries (Indonesia, Thailand, Philippines, Myanmar, Cambodia, Laos, and Vietnam) over the period 1999–2023. Using panel data regression with the Fixed Effects Model (FEM) and Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) estimation, the results show that GDP per capita and foreign direct investment (FDI) have significant negative effects, while the labor force participation rate (LFPR) and inflation have positive effects. Higher economic welfare and FDI flows reduce debt dependency, while high inflation and labor market imbalance encourage external borrowing. The findings underscore the urgency of prudent macroeconomic policy and sustainable fiscal strategies to ensure long-term regional stability.
Faktor-Faktor yang Memengaruhi Penanaman Modal Dalam Negeri di Indonesia Menurut Provinsi Tahun 2014-2023 Hermawan, Kadek Dody Kusuma
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2025 No 1 (2025): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2025
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2025i1.2453

Abstract

Domestic Investment (DI) is one type of investment that comes from local investors. This study aims to determine the factors that influence DI in Indonesia by province 2014-2023. This study uses panel data obtained from Statistics Indonesia and Ministry of Manpower. The data consists of variables of DI realization, Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP), Provincial Minimum Wage (PMW), inflation, and Incremental Capital Output Rasio (ICOR). These variables were modeled with panel data regression. The model selection results show that Fixed Effect Model (FEM) is the most suitable model to explain the influence of independent variables on DI realization. The estimation results show that variables of GRDP and PMW each have a positive and significant effect on DI realization, while variables of inflation and ICOR have no effect. These findings can provide insights for the government in formulating policies to create more equitable DI realization
Analisis Pengaruh Pendidikan, Upah Pekerja dan Akses Sanitasi Layak Terhadap Pendapatan Per Kapita di Indonesia Tahun 2023 Rifdianti, Shinta; Irianto, Hikmal Mardian; Hariaddin, Muhammad; Kartiasih, Fitri
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2025 No 1 (2025): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2025
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2025i1.2455

Abstract

Economic welfare disparity across regions in Indonesia remains a challenge in achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly Goal 8: decent work and economic growth. One of the key indicators reflecting economic well-being is per capita income. This study aims to analyze the influence of socio-economic variables namely the percentage of high school graduates, average worker wages, and access to proper sanitation on per capita income across 34 Indonesian provinces in 2023. Data were obtained from official publications of Statistics Indonesia (BPS) and analyzed using multiple linear regression to examine the significance of the relationships between variables. The results indicate that all three independent variables have a positive and significant effect on per capita income. These findings highlight the importance of improving secondary education quality, wage protection, and equitable access to sanitation services in promoting inclusive and welfare-based economic growth.
Analisis Spasial Determinan Kasus Demam Berdarah Dengue (DBD) di Kota Bandung: Studi Komparatif Model SAR, SEM, dan SARMA Kamal, Shafnanda Aulia; Nurkarim, Wahidya
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2025 No 1 (2025): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2025
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2025i1.2456

Abstract

Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever (DHF) is the third leading cause of death from infectious diseases in Indonesia. West Java Province, as the second most populous province in the country, and Bandung City, the most densely populated city in the province, have recorded the highest number of DHF cases from 2021 to 2024. This study aims to analyze the determinants of DHF and compare the performance of three spatial models—SAR, SEM, and SARMA—in explaining the distribution of DHF cases at the sub-district level in Bandung City. The data used include the number of DHF cases and socio-demographic variables such as the number of households in slum settlements, total population, and population density, analyzed spatially. The results show that the SEM model is the most optimal, with the lowest AIC value (320.881) and statistically significant spatial dependence in the residuals (p-value = 0.00352). Significant variables in the model include the number of households in slum areas, total population (log-transformed), and population density. These findings highlight the importance of spatial approaches in addressing DHF and support area-based health policies through coordinated cross-sub-district interventions.

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