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Prosiding Seminar Nasional Official Statistics
Published by Politeknik Statistika STIS
ISSN : 27721970     EISSN : 27721970     DOI : https://doi.org/10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2022i1
Core Subject : Economy, Humanities, Science, Social,
Humanities Computer Science & IT Economics, Econometrics & Finance Social Sciences
prosiding seminar ini bertujuan untuk menghasilkan berbagai pemikiran solutif, inovatif, dan adaptif terkait isu, strategi, dan metode yang memanfaatkan official statistics
Arjuna Subject : Matematika - Statistik dan Probabilitas
Articles 729 Documents
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Pengaruh Indikator Ekonomi Hijau terhadap Kualitas Hidup Manusia di Indonesia Tahun 2021 Septian, Dicky Aulia; Siburian, Lastri Ramadani; Hakim, Rafi Ariq; Kartiasih, Fitri
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2025 No 1 (2025): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2025
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2025i1.2460

Abstract

Economic development has serious implications for environmental sustainability, affecting the well-being of people in a country. This problem requires initiatives to implement green economy policies with the principle of involving economic development in line with the efficient use of natural resources so as to achieve a good quality of human life. This study aims to analyze the effect of green economy implementation on the quality of human life with descriptive and inferential analysis methods. This research uses multiple linear regression analysis and K-Means Clustering. With the K-Means Clustering method, three provincial clusters with the lowest to highest average Human Development Index (HDI) were obtained. The results showed that the area of forest land cover and poverty line significantly reduced HDI. However, Gross Regional Domestic Product per Capita at Current Prices significantly increases HDI. This study highlights the crucial role of green economy in shaping development pathways that are not only focused on economic growth, but also on maintaining ecological balance and improving human quality of life.
Analisis Spasial Tingkat Kriminalitas Kabupaten/Kota di Provinsi Sumatera Utara Tahun 2022 Sinaga, Vhania Mutiara; Pasaribu, Ernawati
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2025 No 1 (2025): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2025
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2025i1.2464

Abstract

Security from crime is a fundamental human right, highlighted in Goal 16 of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Indonesia continues to experience relatively low safety levels, with North Sumatera Province significantly contributing to the national crime rate. The high criminality in this region is influenced by social, economic, demographic, and political factors, and spatial effects, where crime rates in one area can impact neighboring regions. This study aims to analyze crime levels in North Sumatera while incorporating these spatial effects. Utilizing secondary data from Badan Pusat Statistik, the analysis employs the Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) method, which accounts for spatially varying relationships between variables using Fixed Gaussian weighting based on constant spatial distances. The findings reveal spatial heterogeneity, indicating differing relationships across regions. Five independent variables significantly affecting crime levels include average years of schooling, population density, per capita expenditure, number of police officers, and the Gini ratio.
Aplikasi Regresi Data Panel: Determinan Kualitas Lingkungan Hidup di Indonesia Tahun 2019-2023 Jonatan, Hotton; Salam, Rudi
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2025 No 1 (2025): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2025
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2025i1.2471

Abstract

The Environmental Quality Index (IKLH) is an indicator used to measure environmental development in Indonesia. Nationally, IKLH showed an increasing trend from 2019 to 2023. However, Indonesia's Environmental Performance Index (EPI) in 2024 was only 33.6, ranking 163rd out of 180 countries, reflecting poor environmental quality by global standards. This study analyzes the factors affecting IKLH using panel data regression from 2019 to 2023. The variables include population density, GRDP per capita, energy consumption, and the percentage of the poor population. The results indicate that population density, GRDP per capita, and energy consumption have a significant negative effect on IKLH, while the percentage of the poor has a positive but insignificant effect. These findings highlight that economic and demographic pressures are key contributors to declining environmental quality. Hence, sustainable control of economic activities and population growth, along with integrated environmental policy reforms, is essential.
Peramalan Jumlah Wisatawan Mancanegara yang Datang ke Bali Tahun 2025 Menggunakan SARIMAX dan Data Google Trends Ayuningrum, Adinda Safira Santoso; Sari, Nindy Candra Ayu Puspa; Ihsan, Nur Faqih; -, Nasrudin
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2025 No 1 (2025): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2025
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2025i1.2472

Abstract

Bali is a tourist destination that is in demand by foreign tourists, which continues to increase every year, so the government and local communities need strategies or policies that can be taken so that this becomes an advantage. There is a gap in the data available by the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) as the data provider, so Google Trends is used to fill the gap. Tourist projections rely heavily on historical data sourced from conventional statistical reports, which, although they have a high level of accuracy, are often accompanied by significant time lags and are less responsive to dynamic changes in tourist behavior. This research aims to provide more accurate and responsive predictions by considering exogenous variables in the form of GTI with the keywords "Bali", "Bali Hotel", "Bali `Flight", and "Bali Destination". The best model selected was SARIMAX(2,0,0)(2,1,0)12, with RMSE and sMAPE of 5.994 and 0.845. The number of foreign tourists coming to Bali is estimated to reach its peak in August 2025 at 641,553 people.
Analisis Pengaruh Variabel Individual dan Kontekstual terhadap Status Pengangguran pada Angkatan Kerja Usia Muda Lulusan SMK di Provinsi Jawa Tengah Tahun 2023 Amelia, Izumi Citra; Muchlisoh, Siti
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2025 No 1 (2025): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2025
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2025i1.2481

Abstract

Efforts to increase employment opportunities can be done through vocational education, namely SMK. Central Java is a province that has adequate carrying capacity to organize vocational education. However, in reality, the TPT of SMK graduates in Central Java is still high and has increased. The TPT is dominated by the labor force aged 15-24 years. This can lead to socioeconomic problems. Therefore, this study was conducted to determine the variables that affect the unemployment status of young vocational graduates in Central Java Province in 2023. This study uses Sakernas raw data for August 2023, BPS publications. This research was analyzed descriptively and inferentially using multilevel binary logistic regression. Based on the research results, the variables that have a significant effect on unemployment status at the individual level are gender, marital status, field of expertise, and year of graduation. Then at the district/city level, the variables include HDI and GRDP. Meanwhile, the pre-employment program participation variable has no significant effect on unemployment status.
Analisis Sentimen Berbasis Aspek Pada Ulasan Google Maps Pulungan, Ridson Al Farizal; Nugroho, Wisnu Adi Agung
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2025 No 1 (2025): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2025
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2025i1.2483

Abstract

West Papua is home to several internationally renowned tourist destinations, such as Raja Ampat and Cenderawasih Bay, making the tourism sector one of the key drivers of regional economic growth. However, restrictions on mobility and social interaction during the Covid-19 pandemic led to a significant decline in tourist arrivals in the province. Post-pandemic recovery strategies thus require timely and location-specific data. Google Maps Reviews represent a form of big data that is both up to date and geographically precise, making it useful for assessing and improving the quality of tourism services. This study employs the IndoBERT model for sentiment classification (None, Neutral, Positive, and Negative) across four aspects of tourism: attraction, facilities, accessibility, and price, as reflected in Google Maps reviews. The selected model demonstrates high performance, achieving an F1-score of 71.30% and an accuracy of 93.25%. Findings reveal that the pandemic significantly influenced visitor sentiment, evidenced by a rise in negative reviews during and after the pandemic. This suggests that existing recovery strategies have not been fully effective. Word cloud and thematic map analyses further indicate that the absence or inadequacy of basic facilities and poor accessibility are the primary complaints among tourists. Conversely, the price aspect remained relatively stable, with no substantial increase in negative sentiment, indicating that tourists are more sensitive to service quality than cost. These findings underscore the urgent need for comprehensive improvements in infrastructure and accessibility to support the post-pandemic recovery of tourism in West Papua.
Deteksi Pola Kecelakaan Lalu Lintas dengan Ensemble Learning Berdasarkan Ekstraksi Informasi Berita Online Junianto, Raihan Rahmanda; Yuniarto, Budi
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2025 No 1 (2025): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2025
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2025i1.2484

Abstract

The alleviation of traffic accidents is part of Goal 3 of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). However, the lack of access to information on traffic accidents in areas with high traffic accident rates, such as Central Java, makes controlling these cases ineffective. To date, no publication has provided an overview of traffic accident patterns in Central Java. Therefore, this study aims to utilize ensemble learning in traffic accident pattern detection based on online news information extraction. Online news is chosen as an alternative data source because it is fast, open, and informative. The model developed in this research is Indonesian Bidirectional Encoder Representative from Trasnformer (IndoBERT) for Named Entity Recognition (NER) in extracting online news information, which produces an accuracy of 0.9601. Then, the information extraction results will be used to understand traffic accident patterns using Random Forest with an f1-score of 0.7474. This research also proposes a Decision Tree-based surrogate model to improve the interpretability of the Random Forest model with an average accuracy of 0.8995.
Penerapan Stochastic Frontier Analysis untuk Estimasi Efisiensi Industri Manufaktur di Indonesia Tahun 2022 Parulian, Firman Emmanuel Declarantius; Harum, Nisrina Sekar; Aditya, Randy Daffa; Yuliana, Rita
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2025 No 1 (2025): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2025
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2025i1.2492

Abstract

The manufacturing industry plays a crucial role in Indonesia’s economic system due to its significant contribution to GDP. However, the sector’s share of GDP has been declining over the years. Therefore, efficiency and productivity levels remain key challenges that must be addressed. This study aims to estimate the technical efficiency of the manufacturing industry and analyze the factors affecting its inefficiency across 34 provinces in Indonesia using Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA) in 2022. Unlike previous studies that focus on inter-industry or industrial classification analysis, this research adopts a regional perspective. The results indicate that capital and labor have a positive and significant effect. Furthermore, average years of schooling and fuel consumption in the manufacturing industry significantly affect technical inefficiency. Province with the highest technical efficiency is West Java, while the lowest is in East Nusa Tenggara.
Penerapan Error Correction Model dalam Analisis Determinan Ekspor Teh di Indonesia Tahun 1980 – 2023 Ningrum, Icha Wahyu Kusuma; Agustini, Peni
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2025 No 1 (2025): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2025
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2025i1.2499

Abstract

Tea is a crucial commodity in the plantation subsector, strategically contributing to the national economy, both as a source of state revenue through exports and as a provider of employment. However, Indonesia's tea export volume has been unstable and has tended to decline since 2008. If this trend continues, there are concerns that Indonesia will lose its capacity to export tea sustainably in the long term. Therefore, a comprehensive analysis of the factors influencing tea export volume, both in the short and long term, is needed to support the formulation of targeted policies. This study uses an Error Correction Model (ECM) approach with data covering 1980 to 2023. The estimation results indicate that in the long term, tea production, exchange rates, and world coffee prices significantly influence tea export volume. Meanwhile, in the short term, only tea production and world coffee prices significantly influence Indonesian tea exports. Therefore, the recommendation is for stakeholders to use total tea production, the movement of the rupiah exchange rate against the US dollar, and the price dynamics of substitute commodities such as coffee as the main indicators in formulating export strategies. This strategy is expected to encourage a sustainable increase in the volume of Indonesian tea exports in the global market.
Dampak Guncangan Indikator Sosial-Ekonomi terhadap Migrasi Neto di Indonesia Tahun 1991-2023: Pendekatan Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) Sarwosih, Arifa Tri; Pratama, Muhammad Zacky Arie; Nabilah, Yasmin Nur Alya; Kartiasih, Fitri
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2025 No 1 (2025): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2025
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2025i1.2501

Abstract

Migration plays an important role in shaping socio-economic dynamics across provinces in Indonesia. This study aims to analyze the impact of shocks in socio-economic indicators—namely the Open Unemployment Rate (OUR) and inflation—on net migration during the period 1990–2022. Annual data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS) is analyzed using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) approach. The results show that net migration responds dynamically to socio-economic shocks, with system stability reached around the 30th year. Shocks to the unemployment rate have a more dominant long-term impact compared to inflation. The Variance Decomposition Analysis (VDA) confirms the relatively greater contribution of OUR to the variability of net migration. These findings support the push-pull theory of migration and fill a gap in national-level empirical studies. Policymakers need to design adaptive responses to shocks in unemployment and inflation to reduce migration pressures and promote balanced regional development.

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