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All Journal JURNAL MATEMATIKA STATISTIKA DAN KOMPUTASI Jurnal Statistika Universitas Muhammadiyah Semarang BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan JTAM (Jurnal Teori dan Aplikasi Matematika) Zeta - Math Journal J Statistika: Jurnal Ilmiah Teori dan Aplikasi Statistika Jambura Journal of Mathematics M A T H L I N E : Jurnal Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika Jurnal Varian Mandalika Mathematics and Educations Journal Inferensi JAMBURA JOURNAL OF PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS Euler : Jurnal Ilmiah Matematika, Sains dan Teknologi Jurnal Litbang Edusaintech ARRUS Journal of Mathematics and Applied Science Mathematics and Applications (MAp) Journal Jurnal Siger Matematika Journal of Research Applications in Community Services Eksponensial Asian Journal of Science, Technology, Engineering, and Art Mikailalsys Journal of Mathematics and Statistics
Dani, Andrea Tri Rian
Universitas Mulawarman
Religion Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Arts Humanities Biochemistry, Genetics & Molecular Biology Chemical Engineering, Chemistry & Bioengineering Chemistry Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Energy Engineering Environmental Science Industrial & Manufacturing Engineering Languange, Linguistic, Communication & Media Mathematics Mechanical Engineering Medicine & Pharmacology Physics Public Health Social Sciences Transportation Other

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Journal : Jurnal Varian

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Mengeksplorasi Masalah Kejahatan dari POV Statistik dengan Regresi Binomial Negatif Dani, Andrea Tri Rian; Fathurahman, M.; Ni'matuzzahroh, Ludia; Putri Permata, Regita; Putra, Fachrian Bimantoro
Jurnal Varian Vol. 8 No. 2 (2025)
Publisher : Universitas Bumigora

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30812/varian.v8i2.4445

Abstract

Criminality is a complex issue in Indonesia that is very important to the government, law enforcement agencies, and society. The underlying causes of Indonesia's crime problem are complex and impacted by various circumstances. The aim of this research is to model the crime problem in Indonesia and determine the influencing factors.  The method used in this research is Negative Binomial Regression. The results of the study show that the negative binomial regression model can be used to model criminal problems because the variance value is more significant than the average. Based on the parameter significance test results, both simultaneously and partially, the open unemployment rate, Gini ratio, average years of schooling, and prevalence of inadequate food consumption significantly affect the crime rate, with an Akaike’s Information Criterion Corrected (AICc) value of 698,098. These findings suggest that addressing economic inequality, unemployment, education, and food security could help reduce crime in Indonesia. Policies aimed at improving job opportunities, reducing income disparity, and enhancing education and food security are crucial in mitigating crime. This study provides valuable insights for policymakers and law enforcement agencies, offering a foundation for more targeted and effective crime prevention strategies. Future research could employ the robust Poisson Inverse Gaussian Regression method to avoid the overdispersion problem. 
Daily Rainfall Forecasting with ARIMA Exogenous Variables and Support Vector Regression Permata, Regita Putri; Ni'mah, Rifdatun; Dani, Andrea Tri Rian
Jurnal Varian Vol. 7 No. 2 (2024)
Publisher : Universitas Bumigora

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30812/varian.v7i2.3202

Abstract

There is a seasonal element every year, with the dry season often lasting from May to October and the rainy season lasting from November to April. However, climate change causes the changing of the rainy and dry seasons to be erratic, so it is necessary to anticipate weather conditions. Prediction of rainfall is used to see natural conditions in the future with time series modeling. The rainfall modeling method at the six Surabaya observation posts used is the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with exogenous variables (ARIMAX) and Support Vector Regression. The exogenous variable used is the captured seasonal pattern of rainfall. The SVR model uses input lags from the ARIMAX model and parameter tuning uses the Kernel Radial Based Function. Selection of the best model uses the minimum RMSE value. The results showed that the average occurrence of rain at the six rainfall observation posts occurred in January, February, March, April, November and December. The ARIMAX method in this study is well used to predict rainfall in Gubeng and rainfall in Wonorejo. The SVR input lag ARIMAX method is good for predicting rainfall for Keputih, Kedung Cowek, Wonokromo and Gunung Sari. Nonparametric methods are better used to forecast rainfall data because they are able to capture data patterns with greater volatility than parametric methods, one of which is the SVR method.
Co-Authors A'yun, Qonita Qurrota Adhitya Ronnie Effendie, Adhitya Ronnie AINURROCHMAH, ALIFTA Alifta Ainurrochmah Alifta Ainurrochmah Anisar, Anggi Putri AVIANTHOLIB, IGAR CALVERIA Avrilia, Khairunnisa Budi Cahyono Budi, Ennesya Estya Candra, Yossy Chandra, Yossy Dandito Laa Ull Darnah Darnah, Darnah Dimas Nugroho Dwi Seputro Fachrian Bimantoro Putra Fadlirhohim, Rizki Dwi Fauziyah, Meirinda Fidia Deny Tisna Amijaya Goenjatoro, Rito Hardina Sandariria Hinadang, Elen A. I Gusti Bagus Ngurah Diksa I Nyoman Budiantara I Nyoman Budiantara Ibaad, Muhammad Irsadul indarsih, Indarsih Koirudin, Hadi Kosasih, Raditya Arya Krisna Rendi Awalludin Ludia Ni'matuzzahroh Ludia Ni’matuzzahroh M. Fathurahman M. Yogi Riyantama Isjoni Mahmuda, Siti Mar’ah, Zakiyah Meirinda Fauziyah Melisa Arumsari Memi Nor Hayati Mislan Muawanah, Chusnul Muhammad Aldani Zen Mulyadi, Taqriri Kamal Nanda Arista Rizki NARITA YURI ADRIANINGSIH Ni'matuzzahroh, Ludia Nilam Novita Sari Novidianto, Raditya Nurul Istiqomah Oroh, Chiko Zet Puspitasari, Melda Putra, Fachrian Bimantoro Qonita Qurrota A'yun Raditya Arya Kosasih Raditya Novidianto Rahayu, Joana K. Rahmah, Syifa M. Rahmah, Syifa Mutia Rahmania Rahmania Ramadhani, Bagus D. Regita Putri Permata Rifdatun Ni’mah Riry Sriningsih Rito Goejantoro, Rito Sifriyani, Sifriyani Siringoringo, Meiliyani Sitinjak, Jesselin Paskalis Solikhah, Arifatus Solikhatun, Solikhatun Sri Wahyuni Sri Wahyuningsih Sri Wigantono Sukamto, Ika Sumiyarsi Surya Prangga Suyitno Suyitno Syaripuddin Syaripuddin Tanur, Erwin Tutik Handayani, Tutik Uha Isnaini Vita Ratnasari Wahyujati, Mohamad Fahruli Watika, Noor Hikmah Zen, Muhammad Aldani