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All Journal JURNAL MATEMATIKA STATISTIKA DAN KOMPUTASI Jurnal Statistika Universitas Muhammadiyah Semarang BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan JTAM (Jurnal Teori dan Aplikasi Matematika) SELAPARANG: Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat Berkemajuan Zeta - Math Journal J Statistika: Jurnal Ilmiah Teori dan Aplikasi Statistika Jambura Journal of Mathematics M A T H L I N E : Jurnal Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika Jurnal Varian Mandalika Mathematics and Educations Journal Inferensi JAMBURA JOURNAL OF PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS Euler : Jurnal Ilmiah Matematika, Sains dan Teknologi Jurnal Litbang Edusaintech ARRUS Journal of Mathematics and Applied Science Mathematics and Applications (MAp) Journal Jurnal Siger Matematika Journal of Research Applications in Community Services Eksponensial Asian Journal of Science, Technology, Engineering, and Art Mikailalsys Journal of Mathematics and Statistics
Dani, Andrea Tri Rian
Universitas Mulawarman
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The Modeling Maximum Water Level in Sangkuliman East Borneo using Singular Spectrum Analysis Dani, Andrea Tri Rian; Mislan, Mislan; Putra, Fachrian Bimantoro
ARRUS Journal of Mathematics and Applied Science Vol. 4 No. 2 (2024)
Publisher : PT ARRUS Intelektual Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35877/mathscience2945

Abstract

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk memodelkan rata-rata tinggi muka air maksimum di danau Sangkuliman dengan menggunakan data runtun waktu yang dikumpulkan sejak Januari 2015 – Desember 2022. Metode yang digunakan adalah Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA). SSA adalah salah satu metode analisis runtun waktu yang memiliki kelebihan, diantaranya fleksibilitas dalam mendeteksi pola khususnya pola musiman. Data dibagi menjadi data in-sample dan out-sample dengan proporsi 90:10. Ukuran akurasi yang digunakan adalah Symmetric Mean Absolute Percentage Error (SMAPE). Berdasarkan hasil analisis, diperoleh windown length optimal L = 12 dengan nilai SMAPE minimum. Hasil peramalan dari SSA berdasarkan koefisien Linear Recurrent Formula (LRF) menunjukkan pola data hasil prediksi cenderung mengikuti pola data aktual.
Application of Queue Theory in Cafe Services with Erlang Distribution Ramadhani, Bagus D.; Cahyono, Budi; Rahayu, Joana K.; Rahmah, Syifa M.; Dani, Andrea Tri Rian
Mikailalsys Journal of Mathematics and Statistics Vol 2 No 3 (2024): Mikailalsys Journal of Mathematics and Statistics
Publisher : Darul Yasin Al Sys

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.58578/mjms.v2i3.3403

Abstract

As urban lifestyles evolve, culinary businesses, particularly cafes, have experienced rapid growth. This surge in popularity has led to an increase in customers and, consequently, longer queues. These extended wait times can frustrate customers and pose challenges to cafe management. To address this issue, we conducted a comprehensive eval_uation and optimization of the service system at a Samarinda cafe using the Erlang distribution queuing system. Primary data was meticulously collected over six days, amounting to a total of 12 hours of observation. Kolmogorov-Smirnov distribution fitting tests were employed, revealing that customer service times adhered to an exponential distribution. The average customer arrival rate was determined to be 0.351 per minute, while the average service time was calculated at 5.546 minutes per customer. Our analysis confirmed that the system operates in a steady state with a utility value of 0.06, indicating sufficient service capacity to handle the current customer load. Therefore, the study concludes that the cafe's service system is currently optimal.
Comparison of Value at Risk (VaR) in Risk Analysis: Historical, Variance Covariance and Monte Carlo Methods Fauziyah, Meirinda; Dani, Andrea Tri Rian; Koirudin, Hadi; Budi, Ennesya Estya; Avrilia, Khairunnisa; Watika, Noor Hikmah
Mikailalsys Journal of Mathematics and Statistics Vol 2 No 3 (2024): Mikailalsys Journal of Mathematics and Statistics
Publisher : Darul Yasin Al Sys

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.58578/mjms.v2i3.3778

Abstract

Value at Risk (VaR) is a method used to measure financial risk in a company. VaR calculations are often used to calculate the level of loss from shares in a company, such as bank shares. The aim of this research is to determine the level of losses in Bank Central Asia shares using the historical method, the Variance-covariance method, and the Monte Carlo method. the results showed that with an initial investment of $50 and using the Historical method at a significant level of 95%, the VaR value was obtained at $16.42 or IDR. 267.301 and at the 90% significant level, the VaR value was obtained at $12.41 or IDR. 202.022. Based on the Variance-covariance method with an initial investment of 50$ at the 95% significant level, the VaR value is obtained at $16.42 or IDR. 267,301 and at the 90% significant level, the VaR value is obtained at $12.79 or IDR. 208.208. Meanwhile, based on the Monte Carlo method with an initial investment of $50, at a significant level of 95%, the VaR value is obtained at $16.46 or IDR. 267,952 and at the 90% significance level, the VaR value is obtained at $12.84 or IDR. 209.022. Based on the three methods used, it was concluded that the Monte Carlo method gave greater results compared to the other two methods.
Analysis the Effect of Inflation, Gold Prices in Dollars, Rupiah Exchange to Bank Indonesia Monthly Rates After the COVID 19 Seputro, Dimas Nugroho Dwi; Dani, Andrea Tri Rian; Fauziyah, Meirinda; Adrianingsih, Narita Yuri; Putra, Fachrian Bimantoro
Mikailalsys Journal of Mathematics and Statistics Vol 2 No 3 (2024): Mikailalsys Journal of Mathematics and Statistics
Publisher : Darul Yasin Al Sys

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.58578/mjms.v2i3.3767

Abstract

The Covid-19 pandemic has caused economic turmoil to become uncertain, affecting all aspects of Indonesian society's lives. This research aims to determine the relationship between the inflation rate, the transaction price of the last issuer of gold and the rupiah exchange rate that occurred in the period after the Covid-19 pandemic on the monthly interest rate of Bank Indonesia, both together and each variable on the monthly interest rate of Bank Indonesia. This research details the research steps starting from classical assumption test analysis, multiple linear regression, coefficient of determination to hypothesis testing. The research results show that from the inflation rate, the price of gold in dollars together has a significant influence on the dependent variable, namely the Bank Indonesia monthly interest rate. Inflation and gold prices in dollars partially have a significant influence on Bank Indonesia's monthly interest rate, while the rupiah exchange rate variable partially does not have a significant influence on Bank Indonesia's monthly interest rate. Inflation is the most dominant variable in Bank Indonesia's monthly interest rate after the Covid-19 pandemic.
Time Series Modeling with Intervention Analysis to Evaluate of COVID-19 Impact on the Stock Markets in Indonesia and Global Dani, Andrea Tri Rian; Putra, Fachrian Bimantoro
Euler : Jurnal Ilmiah Matematika, Sains dan Teknologi Volume 13 Issue 1 April 2025
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Gorontalo

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.37905/euler.v13i1.31081

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic began in December 2019 and led to significant disruptions in global financial markets. This study investigates the impact of the pandemic on stock indices in Indonesia (IHSG), the United States (DJI), and South Korea (KOSPI) using intervention analysis with a step function, which is designed to model permanent shifts in time series data following external shocks. Unlike traditional models such as ARIMA that assume data continuity, intervention models, particularly those using step functions, are highly suitable for assessing long-term economic disruptions and structural breaks caused by pandemics. This research uses daily stock price index data from January 10, 2019, to May 8, 2020, obtained from Yahoo Finance. The step function identifies the point of sustained change triggered by the initial COVID-19 outbreak and subsequent market reactions. The analysis shows that the pandemic caused significant and persistent declines across all observed indices. IHSG recorded its sharpest drop on March 26, 2020, while DJI and KOSPI experienced similar downward trends from March to April 2020. The forecasting performance of the intervention model was excellent, with Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) values of 0.72% for IHSG, 0.87% for DJI, and 0.82% for KOSPI, demonstrating high accuracy in modeling stock market behavior during crisis conditions.
PENGUJIAN HIPOTESIS SIMULTAN MODEL REGRESI NONPARAMETRIK SPLINE TRUNCATED DALAM PEMODELAN KASUS EKONOMI DANI, ANDREA TRI RIAN; ADRIANINGSIH, NARITA YURI; AINURROCHMAH, ALIFTA
Jambura Journal of Probability and Statistics Vol 1, No 2 (2020): Jambura Journal of Probability and Statictics
Publisher : Department of Mathematics, Universitas Negeri Gorontalo

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34312/jjps.v1i2.7755

Abstract

The pattern in a relationship between the response variable and the predictor variable can be known and some cannot be known. In determining the unknown pattern of relationships, nonparametric regression approaches can be used. The nonparametric regression approach is very flexible. One of the most frequently used nonparametric regression approaches is the truncated spline. Truncated splines are polynomial pieces that are segmented and continuous. The purpose of this study is to obtain the best estimator model in the Gini Ratio case against the variables suspected of influencing it, then perform simultaneous hypothesis testing on the nonparametric regression model. The criteria for the goodness of the model use the GCV and R2 values. In the case modeling of the District / City Gini Ratio in East Java Province using a nonparametric regression approach, it was found that the truncated spline estimator with 3 knots points gave quite good results. This is indicated by the coefficient of determination of the truncated spline estimator, which is 84.76%. Based on the results of simultaneous testing, it was found that the open unemployment rate, the percentage of poor people and the rate of economic growth simultaneously had an influence on the Gini Ratio.
Strategi jitu menjadikan sambal tiram Tabalar mendunia untuk meningkatkan kesejahteraan masyarakat Kusuma, Ratna; Samsurianto, Samsurianto; Dani, Andrea Tri Rian; Darnah, Darnah
SELAPARANG: Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat Berkemajuan Vol 9, No 3 (2025): May
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Mataram

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31764/jpmb.v9i3.30598

Abstract

Abstrak Tiram merupakan sumber daya hayati laut dengan potensi ekonomi tinggi yang dapat dikembangkan menjadi produk olahan seperti sambal tiram. Desa Tabalar Muara di Kalimantan Timur memiliki potensi besar untuk mengembangkan produk ini, namun terbentur oleh keterbatasan pemahaman tentang pemasaran digital, lemahnya branding, dan jangkauan pasar yang terbatas. Untuk mengatasi masalah tersebut, dilakukan program sosialisasi pemasaran digital dengan tujuan meningkatkan daya saing produk sambal tiram melalui pemanfaatan media sosial. Program ini dilaksanakan dalam tiga tahapan: persiapan, sosialisasi, dan pelaksanaan. Pada tahap persiapan, dilakukan survei untuk menggali kondisi usaha masyarakat. Sosialisasi memberikan pemahaman tentang pemasaran digital, branding, dan desain kemasan produk. Pelaksanaan melibatkan praktik langsung pembuatan konten promosi dan pengelolaan media sosial. Hasil kegiatan menunjukkan bahwa peserta, terutama anggota PKK, lebih memahami pentingnya pemasaran digital dan semakin percaya diri dalam memasarkan produk mereka. Program ini diharapkan dapat meningkatkan daya saing sambal tiram Tabalar Muara di pasar lokal dan nasional serta mendorong pengembangan usaha mikro berbasis sumber daya lokal untuk meningkatkan kesejahteraan masyarakat desa secara berkelanjutan. Kata kunci: tiram; Tabalar Muara; ekonomi desa; digitalisasi Abstract Oysters are marine resources with high economic value, and they can be developed into processed products like oyster sambal. Tabalar Muara Village in East Kalimantan has significant potential for developing this product but faces challenges in marketing, particularly in digital marketing and branding. This program aims to improve the competitiveness of oyster sambal through digital marketing, specifically via social media, to expand market reach. The program was carried out in three stages: preparation, socialization, and implementation. In the preparation stage, surveys were conducted to identify marketing barriers. The socialization stage focused on educating participants about digital marketing strategies, packaging design, and branding. In the implementation stage, participants were guided to create promotional content for social media. The results showed an increase in participants’ understanding, particularly among PKK members, of the importance of digital marketing. This program is expected to promote sustainable local product development and improve the welfare of the village community. Keywords: oysters; Tabalar Muara; village economy; digitalization
Peran edukasi dalam menjaga kebersihan dan kesehatan gigi anak di masyarakat Kusuma, Ratna; Samsurianto, Samsurianto; Darnah, Darnah; Dani, Andrea Tri Rian
SELAPARANG: Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat Berkemajuan Vol 9, No 3 (2025): May
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Mataram

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31764/jpmb.v9i3.30289

Abstract

AbstrakKesehatan gigi dan mulut merupakan aspek penting dalam mendukung kesejahteraan anak-anak serta mencegah penyakit gigi sejak dini. Namun, rendahnya kesadaran masyarakat terhadap kebersihan gigi menyebabkan tingginya prevalensi karies gigi pada anak-anak. Untuk mengatasi permasalahan ini, program sosialisasi dan edukasi kesehatan gigi dilaksanakan pada 26 Juli 2024 di SDN 001 Tabalar Muara sebagai bagian dari Kuliah Kerja Nyata (KKN) Universitas Mulawarman. Kegiatan ini bertujuan meningkatkan pemahaman siswa mengenai pentingnya menjaga kebersihan gigi serta mengajarkan teknik menyikat gigi yang benar melalui pendekatan interaktif, seperti pemaparan materi, praktik langsung, dan diskusi kelompok. Hasil kegiatan berdasarkan observasi menunjukkan peningkatan kesadaran siswa, meskipun masih ditemukan kebiasaan kurang baik, seperti konsumsi makanan manis berlebihan dan tidak menyikat gigi sebelum tidur. Sebagai tindak lanjut, poster edukatif disebarluaskan di lokasi strategis untuk memperkuat pesan yang disampaikan. Edukasi berkelanjutan serta dukungan dari berbagai pihak diharapkan dapat membentuk kebiasaan menjaga kesehatan gigi sejak dini dan menurunkan angka penyakit gigi pada anak-anak. Kata kunci: edukasi; gigi anak; kebersihan; kesehatan; sosialisasi AbstractOral health is an important aspect in supporting children's welfare and preventing dental disease from an early age. However, low public awareness of dental hygiene causes a high prevalence of tooth decay in children. To overcome this problem, a dental health socialization and education program was implemented on July 26, 2024 at SDN 001 Tabalar Muara as part of the Mulawarman University Community Service Program (KKN). This activity aims to increase students' understanding of the importance of maintaining dental hygiene and teach proper tooth brushing techniques through an interactive approach, such as material presentation, direct practice, and group discussions. The results of the activity based on observations showed an increase in student awareness, although there were still bad habits, such as excessive consumption of sweet foods and not brushing their teeth before going to bed. As a follow-up, educational posters were distributed in strategic locations to reinforce the message conveyed. Continuous education and support from various parties are expected to form the habit of maintaining dental health from an early age and reduce the number of dental diseases in children. Keywords: education; children's dental health; hygiene; health; socialization
Mengeksplorasi Masalah Kejahatan dari POV Statistik dengan Regresi Binomial Negatif Dani, Andrea Tri Rian; Fathurahman, M.; Ni'matuzzahroh, Ludia; Putri Permata, Regita; Putra, Fachrian Bimantoro
Jurnal Varian Vol. 8 No. 2 (2025)
Publisher : Universitas Bumigora

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30812/varian.v8i2.4445

Abstract

Criminality is a complex issue in Indonesia that is very important to the government, law enforcement agencies, and society. The underlying causes of Indonesia's crime problem are complex and impacted by various circumstances. The aim of this research is to model the crime problem in Indonesia and determine the influencing factors.  The method used in this research is Negative Binomial Regression. The results of the study show that the negative binomial regression model can be used to model criminal problems because the variance value is more significant than the average. Based on the parameter significance test results, both simultaneously and partially, the open unemployment rate, Gini ratio, average years of schooling, and prevalence of inadequate food consumption significantly affect the crime rate, with an Akaike’s Information Criterion Corrected (AICc) value of 698,098. These findings suggest that addressing economic inequality, unemployment, education, and food security could help reduce crime in Indonesia. Policies aimed at improving job opportunities, reducing income disparity, and enhancing education and food security are crucial in mitigating crime. This study provides valuable insights for policymakers and law enforcement agencies, offering a foundation for more targeted and effective crime prevention strategies. Future research could employ the robust Poisson Inverse Gaussian Regression method to avoid the overdispersion problem. 
ESTIMATION OF A BI-RESPONSE TRUNCATED SPLINE NONPARAMETRIC REGRESSION MODEL ON LIFE EXPECTANCY AND PREVALENCE OF UNDERWEIGHT CHILDREN IN INDONESIA Anisar, Anggi Putri; Sifriyani, Sifriyani; Dani, Andrea Tri Rian
BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Vol 17 No 4 (2023): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Applications
Publisher : PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/barekengvol17iss4pp2011-2022

Abstract

Researchers use the nonparametric regression method because it provides excellent flexibility in the modeling process. Nonparametric regression procedures can be used if the relationship pattern between the predictor and response variables is unknown. The truncated spline method is one of the most frequently used nonparametric regression methods. A truncated spline is a polynomial slice with continuous segmented properties, and the resulting curve is relatively smooth. The advantage of truncated splines is that they can be used on data that experience behavior changes at specific intervals. The nonparametric spline truncated bi-response regression approach is used when one or more predictor variables affect the two response variables with the assumption that there is a correlation between the response variables. This study aimed to obtain the best spline truncated bi-response nonparametric regression model on life expectancy data and the prevalence of underweight children in Indonesia in 2021. The data used comes from the Central Bureau of Statistics and the Indonesian Ministry of Health. The optimal knot point selection method uses the Generalized Cross Validation (GCV) method. The results showed that the best model formed was obtained using three-knot points based on a minimum GCV value of 22.77 and a coefficient of determination of 99.58%.
Co-Authors A'yun, Qonita Qurrota AINURROCHMAH, ALIFTA Alifta Ainurrochmah Alifta Ainurrochmah Anisar, Anggi Putri AVIANTHOLIB, IGAR CALVERIA Avrilia, Khairunnisa budi Cahyono Budi, Ennesya Estya Candra, Yossy Chandra, Yossy Dandito Laa Ull Darnah Darnah, Darnah Dimas Nugroho Dwi Seputro Fachrian Bimantoro Putra Fadlirhohim, Rizki Dwi Fauziyah, Meirinda Goenjatoro, Rito Hadi Koirudin Hardina Sandariria Hinadang, Elen A. I Gusti Bagus Ngurah Diksa I Nyoman Budiantara I Nyoman Budiantara Ibaad, Muhammad Irsadul Koirudin, Hadi Kosasih, Raditya Arya Krisna Rendi Awalludin Ludia Ni'matuzzahroh Ludia Ni’matuzzahroh M. Fathurahman Mar’ah, Zakiyah Meirinda Fauziyah Melisa Arumsari Memi Nor Hayati Mislan Muawanah, Chusnul Muhammad Aldani Zen Nanda Arista Rizki NARITA YURI ADRIANINGSIH Ni'matuzzahroh, Ludia Nilam Novita Sari Novidianto, Raditya Oroh, Chiko Zet Puspitasari, Melda Putra, Fachrian Bimantoro Qonita Qurrota A'yun Raditya Arya Kosasih Raditya Novidianto Rahayu, Joana K. Rahmah, Syifa M. Rahmah, Syifa Mutia Rahmania Rahmania Ramadhani, Bagus D. Ratna Kusuma, Ratna Regita Putri Permata Rifdatun Ni’mah Riry Sriningsih Rito Goejantoro, Rito Samsurianto Samsurianto Sifriyani, Sifriyani Siringoringo, Meiliyani Siti Mahmuda Sitinjak, Jesselin Paskalis Sri Wahyuningsih Sri Wahyuningsih Sri Wigantono Surya Prangga Suyitno Suyitno Tanur, Erwin Tutik Handayani, Tutik Vita Ratnasari Watika, Noor Hikmah Zen, Muhammad Aldani