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Journal : Building of Informatics, Technology and Science

Implementation of Trend Moment Method in Forecasting Regional Income Sutrisman Sutrisman; Havid Syafwan; Rohminatin Rohminatin
Building of Informatics, Technology and Science (BITS) Vol 4 No 2 (2022): September 2022
Publisher : Forum Kerjasama Pendidikan Tinggi

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.47065/bits.v4i2.2090

Abstract

In order to carry out the functions and authorities of local governments in the form of implementing fiscal authority, regions must be able to recognize potential and identify the resources they have. Forecasting is an art and science in predicting future events. The Regional Financial and Asset Management Agency (BPKAD) of Asahan Regency does not yet know the Regional Revenue in the upcoming period & is not yet available a system that can calculate Regional Revenue for the upcoming period. The main purpose of this research is to know the prediction of Regional Income in the following year. The system created helps in determining Regional Revenue in 2022, with data used from 2011 – 2021. The Trend Moment method is a method that uses certain statistical and mathematical calculation methods to find out the function of a straight line instead of a broken line formed by the company's historical data. In choosing the forecast method, accuracy is needed to minimize errors in forecasting (forecast error), the goal is that the forecast can approach reality. Based on the results of system testing, this Regional Revenue Forecasting predicts regional revenue in 2022, which is IDR 136,847,395,228.82 and the result of the percentage of errors (MAPE) Mean Absolute Percentage Error of 0.12%.
Penerapan Metode Single Exponential Smoothing (SES) dalam Peramalan Jumlah Ikan Nindi Lisnawati; Havid Syafwan; Nurkarim Nehe
Building of Informatics, Technology and Science (BITS) Vol 4 No 2 (2022): September 2022
Publisher : Forum Kerjasama Pendidikan Tinggi

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.47065/bits.v4i2.2132

Abstract

The fisheries sector is a sector that is one of the factors that can support activities and the Indonesian economy. Fishery resources, especially those in the sea, are natural resources that are freely used by anyone. In carrying out fishing business in Asahan Regency, there has been a cycle of ups and downs from the last ten years, so that the fish supply is not in accordance with its needs. Besides that, it takes a long time to find out the number of fish according to the origin of the catch if there is no technique used. Because this cycle occurs in fish production, it is not yet known how much fish production in the coming year will meet their needs, whether it will increase or decrease, the Government and fishermen in Asahan must be able to take policies to get solutions to these problems. So we need a method to predict the number of fish catches in order to know the predictive value in the next period by using calculations to find the error value for each value using the Single Exponetial Smoothing (SES) method. The results of the study obtained a prediction of the number of fish, namely in the July 2022 period 676836.19 (Kg) with a MAPE value of 3.38%, which value was greater in May 2022 and smaller than June 2022, the Asahan District Fisheries Service must meet the number of fish. in stock of their needs