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Anggraini, Yuyun
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Beyond Commodity Prices: Industrial Metals and Long-Run Economic Growth in Indonesia Hariono, Hariono; Sapriyadi, Sapriyadi; Anggraini, Yuyun
Jurnal Riset Ilmu Ekonomi Vol. 5 No. 3 (2025): Jurnal Riset Ilmu Ekonomi (JRIE) Edisi Desember 2025
Publisher : Universitas Pasundan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.23969/jrie.v5i3.399

Abstract

This study investigates the long-run and nonlinear relationship between industrial metal prices and economic growth in Indonesia by interpreting aluminum and copper prices as structural proxies for global industrial metabolism. Moving beyond conventional commodity-price analysis, the study employs a time-series econometric framework integrating unit root tests, ARDL bounds cointegration, error correction modeling, and threshold analysis. Using long-horizon annual data, the findings reveal a stable long-run equilibrium relationship between Indonesia’s real GDP and industrial metal proxies, indicating that national economic growth is structurally embedded in material-intensive global production dynamics. The long-run estimates show that aluminum prices exert a positive effect on economic growth, reflecting their role in supporting broad-based industrial throughput and manufacturing expansion. In contrast, copper prices display a negative long-run effect, suggesting that rising material complexity and infrastructural intensity may constrain growth. The nonlinear results further identify a critical copper-price threshold beyond which its impact on growth becomes strongly negative, signaling a transition from productive expansion to systemic industrial stress. These findings underscore the importance of accounting for structural and nonlinear dynamics when assessing growth trajectories in resource-rich developing economies.
Co-Authors Ahyar, Haeril Ardiansyah, Awi Ardiansyah, Muh. Basrawi Basrawi Dhona Andhini Dwi Astuti Faisal Herisetiawan Jafar Fathur Rahman Rustan Hariono Hariono Irsan Rahman, Irsan Jusafri Mardiana Mardiana Mayasari, Riezka Eka Muhammad Syaiful Mutmainna, Mutmainna Nadra Mutiara Sari Nekstriani, Nekstriani Nur Hidayani Alimuddin Nurfadillah Nurhalizah, Nurhalizah Oktaviani oktaviani Pradiptya, Adhi Puspaningtyas, Retno Putri Widita Muharyani Sakti, La Ode Awal Sapriyadi Saputra, Fahmi sari, Patma Subairi, Moh. Suci Rahmawati Prima, Suci Rahmawati Sundoro, Fredericho Mego Syahrir, Sasmita Nabila Syamsul Rijal Triani, Neks Wonua, Almansyah Rundu Yudistira, Ira Zizih, Andi Rezah Tenri