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Can bitcoin serve as a reliable safe haven? Amid uncertainty and volatility Nugraha, Pazri; Saptutyningsih, Endah; Nguyen, Tran Thai Ha; Darsono, Susilo Nur AJi Cokro
Journal of Accounting and Investment Vol. 27 No. 1: January 2026
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Yogyakarta, Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.18196/jai.v27i1.28742

Abstract

Research aims: This study examines whether Bitcoin can serve as a safe-haven asset amid global market uncertainty during the 2022–2025 period, characterized by geopolitical tensions, post-pandemic inflation, and heightened financial volatility.Design/Methodology/Approach: The study employs a quantitative approach using daily data on Bitcoin, gold, oil, the S&P 500 index, and the Volatility Index (VIX) from January 2022 to June 2025. All variables are transformed into logarithmic returns and analyzed using an ARCH model to capture time-varying volatility and assess the influence of global market factors on Bitcoin returns..Research findings: The empirical results indicate that the VIX has a statistically significant negative effect on Bitcoin returns, implying that rising global uncertainty weakens rather than strengthens Bitcoin’s value. The S&P 500 exerts a significant positive influence, showing that Bitcoin moves pro-cyclically with equity markets and behaves like a risky asset. Oil prices have no significant impact, while gold returns exhibit a significant but unstable co-movement, lacking consistent value preservation. Overall, these findings reject Bitcoin’s safe-haven role and characterize it as a speculative digital asset with high sensitivity to stock market dynamics.Theoretical contribution/Originality: This study contributes to the safe-haven and digital finance literature by providing recent empirical evidence that distinguishes Bitcoin from genuine safe-haven assets. Grounded in formal safe-haven theory and volatility dynamics, it challenges the “digital gold” narrative and clarifies the boundary between high-risk digital assets and traditional safe havens.Practitioner/Policy implication: For investors, the results of this study confirm the need for caution in treating Bitcoin as a portfolio diversification instrument, as its behavior is more like that of a risky asset than a hedge asset. For Policymakers and regulators, these results show the importance of public education regarding Bitcoin's volatility risks and its limitations as a safe haven.
Asymmetric and time-horizon effects of geopolitical risk, digital assets, economic policy uncertainty, and commodity prices on Brazil’s sustainability index Darsono, Susilo Nur Aji Cokro; Handayani, Sintia; Mutiara, Intan; Nguyen, Tran Thai Ha; Chong, Fennee; Johari, Sobar M.
Jurnal Ekonomi & Studi Pembangunan Vol. 27 No. 1: April 2026
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Yogyakarta

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.18196/jesp.v27i1.31388

Abstract

This study examines the short run and long run effects of geopolitical risk (GPR), Bitcoin (BTC) prices, economic policy uncertainty (EPU), world oil prices, world gold prices, and the Dow Jones Sustainability Index (DJSI) on Brazil’s Corporate Sustainability Index (ISE B3). Using monthly data from January 2019 to December 2024 and applying the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing framework, the analysis identifies asymmetric and time horizon dependent relationships. In the short run, gold prices exert a statistically significant negative effect on the ISE B3, consistent with asset substitution behaviour during periods of heightened uncertainty. By contrast, the DJSI displays a positive and significant influence, reflecting the transmission of global sustainability sentiment. In the long run, economic policy uncertainty and oil prices exert significant negative effects on the index, while geopolitical risk and Bitcoin prices have significant positive impacts. A robustness specification excluding the DJSI confirms the stability of the core results for EPU, oil prices, GPR, and Bitcoin. However, omitting the global sustainability benchmark modestly amplifies the estimated magnitudes of GPR and Bitcoin, indicating partial overlap in the channels through which global investor sentiment influences the ISE B3. These findings contribute to the emerging literature on the macro financial determinants of sustainability indices in emerging markets and provide actionable insights for portfolio managers, ESG oriented investors, and policymakers.
Fenomena Paylater di Kalangan Mahasiswa: Gaya Hidup, Sosial, dan Motivasi Hedonisme sebagai Pemicu Perilaku Konsumtif Darsono, Susilo Nur Aji Cokro; Rizarda, Muhammad; Johari, Sobar M
Reviu Akuntansi dan Bisnis Indonesia Vol. 9 No. 1 (2025): REVIU AKUNTANSI DAN BISNIS INDONESIA
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Yogyakarta

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.18196/rabin.v9i1.26015

Abstract

Latar Belakang: Perkembangan transaksi keuangan semakin meningkat pesat, yang mulanya transaksi dilakukan menggunakan uang tunai kini sudah mulai digantikan dengan metode pembayaran non fisik (non-tunai) meskipun masih dalam fase awal. Dengan adanya transisi ke ekonomi digital, kombinasi uang elektronik dan pembayaran kartu semakin meningkat. Teknologi telah berkembang dengan cepat dan mudah, memungkinkan e-commerce memanfaatkan peluang untuk memperluas basis pelanggan mereka. Paylater merupakan salah satu inovasi teknologi yang menyerupai kartu, akan tetapi dalam hal ini pembayaran yang dilakukan tidak membutuhkan kartu layaknya kartu kredit. Cicilan tanpa kartu saat ini sudah menjadi tren yang cukup menarik khususnya di kalangan milenial.Tujuan: Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis faktor-faktor apa saja yang mempengaruhi penggunaan Shopee Paylater terhadap perilaku konsumtif mahasiswa aktif Universitas Muhammadiyah Yogyakarta.Metode Penelitian: Penelitian ini menggunakan data primer dengan jumlah responden sebanyak 400 orang dan menggunakan teknik purposive sampling untuk pengumpulan sampel. Analisis data dilakukan dengan menggunakan analisis regresi berganda untuk mengetahui faktor yang mempengaruhi perilaku konsumtif mahasiswa.Hasil Penelitian: Temuan yang didapatkan dalam penelitian ini adalah variabel gaya hidup, pengaruh sosial, dan motivasi hedonisme memiliki pengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap perilaku konsumtif mahasiswa aktif Universitas Muhammadiyah Yogyakarta pengguna Shopee Paylater. Dalam penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa nilai koefisien determinasi sebesar 58,9% atau 0,589. Keaslian/Kebaruan Penelitian: Penelitian pertama di UMY ini mengkaji faktor yang memengaruhi perilaku konsumtif mahasiswa dalam menggunakan Shopee Paylater. Temuan ini dapat digunakan secara praktis oleh penyedia layanan keuangan digital untuk merancang kebijakan yang lebih tepat dan bertanggung jawab.
Dynamics effect of volatility index, interest rates, and commodity prices on Indonesian bond yields Darsono, Susilo Nur Aji Cokro; Firman, Afrizal; Nugraha, Pazri; Isnaini, Nurul
Jurnal Ekonomi & Studi Pembangunan Vol. 25 No. 1: April 2024
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Yogyakarta

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.18196/jesp.v25i1.22189

Abstract

Several factors influence the movements and dynamics of bond yields in financial markets. The determination of monetary policy, specifically the decisions regarding interest rates made by central banks, is a critical factor. Moreover, bond yields can be influenced by various factors such as geopolitical events, financial volatility, market sentiment, and investor risk appetite. These factors can impact the demand and supply dynamics in bond markets. This research aims to analyze the influence of Interest Rates, IDR to USD Exchange Rates, Volatility Index (VIX), Gold and Oil Prices on Bond Yields in Indonesia. The data used in this research is secondary data, which consists of time series data from 2019-2023. This research investigates the impact of financial and commodity prices on bond yields in Indonesia by using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model to examine both the long-run correlation and short-run effect. Empirical results found that Interest Rate, Volatility Index (VIX), and Oil Prices have a significant positive influence. Meanwhile, the Gold Price variable has a significant negative influence. This research has several crucial policy implications for investors concerning the national monetary policy, exchange rate fluctuation, and global volatility index to create profitable and sustainable portfolio strategies. Moreover, investment managers and investors should be concerned about the global commodities prices that will affect bond yield performances. This research contributes to the recent literature presenting causal relations of global volatility index (VIX) on Indonesian bond yield. 
Policy, Investment, and Organizational Readiness as Determinants of Electronic Medical Record Adoption in Primary Healthcare Clinics Darsono, Susilo Nur Aji Cokro; Zahra, Annisa Az; Rahman, Ferry Fadzlul; Syelvia, Delvi
Journal of Economics Research and Social Sciences Vol. 10 No. 1: February 2026
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Yogyakarta

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.18196/jerss.v10i1.30240

Abstract

Indonesia mandated the implementation of Electronic Medical Records (EMR) in all healthcare facilities through Minister of Health Regulation No. 24 of 2022, requiring full adoption by December 31, 2023. However, variations in implementation across primary healthcare facilities remain evident. This study aimed to analyze factors associated with the level of EMR adoption in clinics at level-1 healthcare facilities in Bantul Regency, Indonesia. A quantitative cross-sectional study was conducted using structured questionnaires distributed to clinic officials in primary healthcare clinics that had implemented EMR systems. Data were collected from 51 respondents representing 35 clinics between January and February 2024. The variables examined included top management beliefs, top management participation, public policy, investment, and organizational performance. A multiple linear regression analysis in SPSS version 22 was conducted to examine the relationships between these variables and the EMR adoption rate. The findings show that top management beliefs, public policy, investment, and organizational performance are significantly associated with the EMR adoption rate. In contrast, top management participation does not demonstrate a statistically significant relationship with adoption levels. Among the examined variables, investment and public policy show the strongest influence, highlighting the importance of financial readiness and supportive regulatory frameworks in facilitating EMR implementation. EMR adoption in primary healthcare clinics is largely driven by policy support, organizational capacity, and investment in health information technology. Strengthening regulatory implementation, providing clearer guidance, and ensuring sustainable funding are essential to accelerate digital health transformation. Future research should examine broader implementation outcomes such as usability, workflow integration, and healthcare service quality.