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Model Time Series untuk Meramalkan Tingkat Kemiskinan di Aceh Safwandi; Zefri Maulana
Jurnal Investasi Islam Vol 9 No 1 (2024): Jurnal Investasi Islam
Publisher : FEBI IAIN Langsa

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.32505/jii.v9i1.8868

Abstract

Poverty tends to occur in developing countries, including Indonesia. Poverty is a complex problem and requires a comprehensive approach in efforts to eradicate it. Handling poverty must be carried out appropriately and cover various aspects of people's lives. The negative impacts of poverty not only affect people's welfare, but also hinder economic development in the long term. Poverty has a negative effect on the economy and social welfare. To determine the prediction of poverty levels, one approach that can be taken is a time series model (time series). In this research, method Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) is used for analysis and forecasting poverty levels. So that it can provide insight into poverty behavior and take appropriate steps both in controlling and alleviating poverty. ARIMA is a time series forecasting method that is suitable for forecasting various variables quickly, simply, cheaply and accurately. The research results show that the poverty rate for the next three years (2024-2026) is 14.17%, 13.93% and 13.72%, respectively. The ARIMA model is proven to be able to provide fairly accurate predictions and follow actual trends, making it useful for forecasting. The ARIMA(1,1,1) model can be used as a reference for future forecasting. The process of forecasting poverty levels does not only focus on predicting statistical figures, but also includes an in-depth analysis of the factors that cause poverty and the economic dynamics that influence it. This allows the government to develop policies that are more effective and responsive to social and economic changes occurring in society.
Empowering the UMKM Economy, BUMK and Halal Tourism to Improve the Economy in Pengidam Kurlillah, Anis; Rizki, Maulana; Lina, Siti Rosa; Muzakir; Nita; Safwandi
SEURAYA Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat Vol 1 No 1 (2023): SEURAYA Jurnal Pengabdian kepada Masyarakat
Publisher : Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis Islam IAIN Langsa

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Abstract

This community service activity aims to overcome the economic problems that occur in Pengidam Village so that the utilization of village funds or other sources can be more optimally focused on the village's economic potential. The problem that occurs in Pengidam Village is the lack of public awareness in improving the economy from supporting sectors including: BUMK (Village-Owned Enterprises), UMKM (Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises) and Tourism. This sector is a fulcrum in developing the village economy so that it is more advanced and becomes a pilot village in the region, especially in Aceh Tamiang District, Aceh Province. Increasing knowledge and digitalization is one of the indicators in economic development both in terms of legality, packaging and marketing of a product from the UMKM sector. Keywords: UMKM, BUMK, and Halal Tourism
Sosialisasi Peran Relawan Pajak Kota Langsa dalam Melakukan Pendampingan Wajib Pajak Safwandi
SEURAYA Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat Vol 1 No 1 (2023): SEURAYA Jurnal Pengabdian kepada Masyarakat
Publisher : Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis Islam IAIN Langsa

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Abstract

Tujuan dari sosialisasi ini adalah untuk memberikan pemahaman peran relawan pajak dalam mendampingi wajib pajak. Relawan Pajak merupakan mahasiswa di Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis Islam IAIN Langsa ikut berpartisipasi dalam mensosialisasi dan mengedukasi terkait perpajakan dalam memberikan pelayanan kepada wajib pajak. Pengabdian ini ditunjukkan melalui pelayanan, edukasi, dan sosialisasi pembayar pajak didukung oleh relawan pajak sehingga berdampak pada layanan maksimal dengan nilai-nilai dasar yang harus ditanam bagi relawan pajak. Relawan pajak dapat membantu wajib pajak melakukan pelaporan pajak tahunan SPT tahunan sehingga wajib pajak menjadi lebih mudah dan lebih cepat. Relawan pajak memandu wajib pajak untuk pembayar pajak didalam menyelesaikan SPTnya. Relawan pajak akan memberikan kemudahan dan membantu wajib pajak dalam proses kesulitan di dalam menyelesaikan SPT yang masyarakat miliki. Harapan dari pengabdian ini agar relawan pajak memahami sistem pembayaran wajib pajak, punya kepercayaan diri dalam melayani wajib pajak dan mampu melayani wajib pajak lebih efektif menyelesaikan SPT Tahunan.
Empowerment of Natural Resources and the Environment as a Livelihood for Rural Communities Muhammad, Alfian; Muhammad Amin; Safwan Kamal; Zubir; Safwandi; Zefri Maulana
SEURAYA Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat Vol 1 No 2 (2023): SEURAYA Jurnal Pengabdian kepada Masyarakat
Publisher : Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis Islam IAIN Langsa

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Abstract

The aim of this service is to examine community empowerment efforts in optimizing the potential of natural resources and the environment as a source of livelihood, as well as exploring the role of women in the production process and management of natural resources and the environment as a livelihood for rural communities. The location of this service is in Afdeling II Bukit Village, Birem Bayeun District, East Aceh Regency. The problems that occur in Afdeling II Bukit Village are the lack of community awareness of the importance of diversifying livelihoods to reduce dependence on a single sector, the lack of innovation in the production of local products that can provide added value and contribute to the competitiveness of the local economy, and then, the lack of concern for resource conservation. nature and the environment in achieving sustainable and inclusive development in Afdeling II Bukit Village. Support from the government and various parties is highly expected to continue to encourage and develop initiatives to achieve better progress for the community and environment of Afdeling II Bukit Village.
Implementation of Stunting Prevention Policies in Gampong Alue Pineung Timue: Synergy of Community Values and Public Policy agustinar, Agustinar; Nurjannah; Eliza, Zulfa; Safwandi; Asnita, Dessy; Zuliani, Rafiza; Sumarni, Mutia
SEURAYA Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat Vol 2 No 1 (2024): SEURAYA Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat
Publisher : Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis Islam IAIN Langsa

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Abstract

Abstract The issue of stunting among children in Gampong Alue Pineung Timue is caused by inadequate nutrition intake over a prolonged period. This problem is of serious concern due to its impact on children's growth and development. The aim of this paper is to implement a stunting prevention policy with a public value approach as its foundation. The methods include workshops and educational mentoring for the community, particularly for stunting cadres in Gampong Alue Pineung Timue. These activities aim to enhance community understanding of factors contributing to stunting, such as political economy, health, sanitation, and environment. The results of this policy implementation demonstrate strong commitment from the Government of Gampong Alue Pineung Timue through Presidential Regulation No. 72 of 2021, encompassing various nutrition and health interventions. In conclusion, addressing stunting requires collective commitment and sustainable policy implementation from multiple stakeholders. Thus, the community in Gampong Alue Pineung Timue is expected to experience improved welfare and optimal child development through integrated and sustainable stunting prevention efforts. The implications of this research underscore the need for synergy between government and community in tackling stunting. Through comprehensive approaches like nutritional education, access to clean water, and adequate sanitation, it is expected to significantly reduce stunting prevalence in Gampong Alue Pineung Timue. Globally, these efforts also contribute to achieving global nutrition targets aimed at reducing the number of stunted children. Keywords: Stunting Prevention; Government Policy, Nutritional Education, Community Synergy
Workshop Math Trails Project untuk Meningkatkan Ketrampilan Numerasi Guru Matematika MTsN se Aceh Timur Saiman; Zaki, Muhammad; Anwar; Pahlevi, Riza; Safwandi
SEURAYA Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat Vol 3 No 1 (2025): SEURAYA Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat
Publisher : Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis Islam IAIN Langsa

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.32505/jurnal seuraya.v3i1.12287

Abstract

Kegiatan Pengabdian kepada masyarakat ini bertujuan untuk membekali guru matematika MTs/ SMP yang ada di Aceh Timur terkait mendesain Math Trails Project untuk meningkatkan ketrampilan numerasi Guru Matematika. Penggunaan Math Trails Project dalam pembelajaran matematika memungkinkan peserta didik untuk mengeksplorasi sendiri konsep atau objek matematika. PKM ini telah dilaksanakan di salah satu sekolah Mitra MGMP Matematika Aceh Timur, yaitu MTsN 8 Aceh Timur dengan Sasarannya guru MGMP matematika Se Aceh Timur sebanyak 30 peserta. Adapun tahapan pelaksanaan PKM ini adalah tahap persiapan, tahap pelaksanaan, dan tahap evaluasi. Kegiatan workshop ini telah terlaksana dengan baik sesuai dengan rencana yang telah disepakati oleh tim PkM dan Mitra MGMP Matematika Se-MTsN Aceh Timur. PkM ini telah menghasilkan Out put, diantaranya peserta telah mendesain dan menghasilkan Math Trails Project karyanya sendiri. Rekomendasi kedepan kegiatan PkM ini adalah adanya tambahan waktu atau follow up untuk mendesain lembar kerja eksploratif pada materi lain.
Prediction of refugee arrivals abroad in indonesia using exponential smoothing model Safwandi; Afrizal Refo; Budi Irwansyah; Ine Zunianti
Desimal: Jurnal Matematika Vol. 8 No. 3 (2025): Desimal: Jurnal Matematika
Publisher : Universitas Islam Negeri Raden Intan Lampung

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24042/djm.v8i3.202529168

Abstract

The trend of refugee arrivals in Indonesia has become a pressing issue due to global conflicts, wars, and human rights violations. Accurate forecasting of these arrivals is crucial for effective planning and resource allocation by governmental and humanitarian organizations. This study aims to forecast refugee arrivals in Indonesia using exponential smoothing models, providing reliable predictions to support evidence-based decision-making and strategic policy planning. The dataset used in this research was obtained from the official UNHCR Indonesia repository, covering the period from April 2020 to July 2023. An exponential smoothing framework was employed, incorporating both single-parameter and two-parameter (Holt’s) models. The smoothing constants were optimized at α = 1.00 and β = 0.1237509, representing the level (Ft) and trend (Lt) components, respectively. A quantitative evaluation using key error metrics showed that both single-parameter and two-parameter (Holt’s) models captured data patterns accurately. The two-parameter model outperformed the single-parameter model (MAPE = 0.66, MAE = 84.57, RMSE = 132.63) and projected arrivals of 12.005, 11.913, and 11.821 for the next three periods. These results indicate that Holt’s model effectively represents the temporal dynamics of refugee inflows and provides a data-driven framework to support evidence-based refugee management and strategic policy planning in Indonesia.
Application of Genetic Algorithm and Or-Tools for Cloud-Based Course Scheduling Optimization Jabbar, Salamul; Safwandi; Kurniawati; Eva Darnila; Fuadi, Wahyu
INOVTEK Polbeng - Seri Informatika Vol. 11 No. 1 (2026): February
Publisher : P3M Politeknik Negeri Bengkalis

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35314/qymmt569

Abstract

Course scheduling in higher education institutions is a complex combinatorial optimization problem involving numerous constraints such as lecturer availability, room capacity, time slots, and course distribution across semesters. Manual scheduling practices often result in conflicts, inefficient resource utilization, and prolonged preparation time. This study proposes a hybrid course scheduling system that integrates a genetic algorithm (GA) and constraint programming using the CP-SAT solver from OR-Tools. The GA is employed in the first phase to generate optimal course sections based on student enrollment, lecturer workload, and capacity constraints. The best solution produced by the GA is then refined using CP-SAT to generate a conflict-free timetable that satisfies all hard constraints, including lecturer, room, and time conflicts, while also optimizing selected soft constraints. The proposed system is implemented as a web-based application deployed on Microsoft Azure, enabling scalability and accessibility. Experimental results using real academic data demonstrate that the hybrid approach successfully produces feasible schedules with zero conflicts and significantly reduces scheduling time compared to manual methods. The results confirm that the integration of GA and CP-SAT provides an effective and flexible solution for university course scheduling problems.
Student Graduation Prediction System In the MBKM Program Using The Mamdani Fuzzy Method Muthiah Riani Harahap; Safwandi; Rini Meiyanti
Proceedings of International Conference on Multidisciplinary Engineering (ICOMDEN) Vol. 2 (2024): Proceedings of International Conference on Multidisciplinary Engineering (ICOMDEN)
Publisher : Faculty of Engineering, Malikussaleh University

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Abstract

This study aims to develop a graduation prediction system for the MBKM Program using the Fuzzy mamdani method. The system is designed to process various academic criteria such as GPA, internship experience, and other supporting documents to provide an accurate projection of graduation probability. The implementation was carried out using data from 61 students of the Informatics Engineering Department at Universitas Malikussaleh. The Fuzzy mamdani method was applied through stages of fuzzification, rule formation, fuzzy inference, and defuzzification to produce the final prediction. The test results show that this method is effective in handling uncertainty and provides a high prediction accuracy, where 67% of students were predicted to graduate, and 33% were not. This system can be used by academic staff to evaluate student performance and provide more precise guidance, as well as to help students plan their studies to achieve graduation in the MBKM Program.