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Journal : Nusantara Science and Technology Proceedings

Forecasting The Number of Traffic Accidents in Purbalingga Regency on 2023 Using Time Series Model Trimono; Muhaimin, Amri; Selayanti, Nabilah
Nusantara Science and Technology Proceedings 8th International Seminar of Research Month 2023
Publisher : Future Science

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.11594/nstp.2024.4168

Abstract

Accident data from Satlantas Purbalingga Regency shows that in 2022 there is an increase in the number of traffic accidents in the Purbalingga Regency. In the future, the impact of accidents is predicted to be bigger so it is necessary to forecasting. Forecasting is one of the most important elements in decision making, because effective or not a decision generally depends on several factors that can not be seen at the time the decision was taken. In this time study the possible time series model is ARMA (2,2), ARMA (2,1), ARMA (1,2), ARMA (1,1), AR (2), AR (1), MA (2), MA (1). However, after testing, the model used is ARMA (1,1). This model is used because it meets all the assumption requirements that are parameter significant, residual independent test, residual normality test, and the smallest Mean Square Error value. According to data forecasting results the highest number of crashes existed in January of 97 accidents and the lowest in December amounted to 93 accidents, So the necessary action from the relevant agencies to cope with the increasing number of traffic accidents in the Purbalingga Regency.
Co-Authors Abda Abda Afidria, Zulfa Febi Ajeng Puspa Wardani Aji Riyantoko, Prismahardi Alzam , Muhammad Arsyad Amri Muhaimin Ananta, Aditya Putra Anggie, Erna Novita Anugrah, Muhammad Cahya Raka Ardiani, Ardia Eva Ardra Jamie Hibatullah Ardra Jamie Hibatullah, Genesis Arfiansyah, Muhammad Nabil Putra Arifta, Septia Dini Aryaputra Jagaddatri Auralia, Karina Aviolla Terza Damaliana Baktiar Putri, Milla Akbarany Bhalqis, Anissa Andiar Cokro, Risbuwono Heru Damaliana, Aviolla Terza Dewi, Ni Luh Ayu Nariswari Diana Novitasari, Diana Diyasa, I Gede Susrama Mas Dwi Arman Prasetya Elmaliyasari, Shifa Farhan Syah Putra Wiyono Fatmala, Friza Nur fernando, Mochamad Firman Fiqih Pavita Andharluana Gestyaki, Jacinda Ardina Hadin, Tiara Audrey Anugerah Hayu, Nahda Hibatulah, Ardra Hidayah, Amellia Harmaimun Hindrayani, Kartika Maulida I Maruddani , Di Asih idhom, Mohammad Iffadah, Adhisa Shilfadianis Irawan, Tanaya Anindita Isyanto, Aisyah Kirana Putri Junior, Nouval Arya Kaffi, Laisal Kamila, Rosyidatul Karnaen, Amelia Zafira Khairunisa, Adenda Krisnawan Kristanaya, Mirechelin Kusharyadi, M. Nurhadyatullah Kusharyadi, Muhammad Nurhadyatullah Laksana Aryananda, Rangga Maulana, Mohammad Hikmal Maulidya Prastita Syah Melinda Putri Azzahra Mohammad Idhom Muhaimin, Amri Muhammad Nasrudin Najma P., Safira Namira, Alivia Salma Nurdiana, Pinka Ozzari, Nikita Aprilia Pakpahan, Vera Febrianti Pasha, Naufal Ricko Maulana Puti Cresti Ekacitta Putri, Safira Rahmalia rachmanto, Nugroho Fajar Ramadani, Nurmalita Ramadhanti, Amirah Rizky Rhomaningtias, Lina Rizkiyah, Selly Rizqin, Indira Zein Sakhi, Difta Alzena Selayanti, Nabilah Sinulingga, Kevin Brema Saputra Susrama Masdiyasa, I Gede Syaifullah J, Wahyu Syamsiar, Syamsiar Wan Awang, Wan Suryani Westerdam Sean Jatindra, Reagen Witanto, Steffany Marcellia Zufar Abdullah Rabbani