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All Journal PIKSEL : Penelitian Ilmu Komputer Sistem Embedded and Logic Bianglala Informatika : Jurnal Komputer dan Informatika Akademi Bina Sarana Informatika Yogyakarta Jurnal Teknik Komputer AMIK BSI Cakrawala : Jurnal Humaniora Bina Sarana Informatika Paradigma Information System for Educators and Professionals : Journal of Information System Information Management For Educators And Professionals (IMBI) JITK (Jurnal Ilmu Pengetahuan dan Komputer) Informatik : Jurnal Ilmu Komputer JISICOM (Journal of Information System, Infomatics and Computing) Jurnal Online Insan Akuntan Jurnal SITECH : Sistem Informasi dan Teknologi MEDIA MANAJEMEN JASA Computer Science (CO-SCIENCE) Conten : Computer and Network Technology Indonesian Journal of Networking and Security - IJNS SPEED - Sentra Penelitian Engineering dan Edukasi Informatics and Computer Engineering Journal ASWAJA: Jurnal Pendidikan dan Keislaman Jurnal Insan INFORMATION SYSTEM FOR EDUCATORS AND PROFESSIONALS : Journal of Information System Jurnal Manajemen Pendidikan Islam Journal of Informatics and Information Security JMAEKA: Jurnal Manajemen Ekonomi Akuntansi
Heri Kuswara
Universitas Bina Sarana Informatika
Religion Arts Humanities Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Electrical & Electronics Engineering Engineering Library & Information Science Social Sciences Other

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Journal : Jurnal Teknik Komputer AMIK BSI

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Application of Prediction Models Based on Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing and Trend Analysis on Indonesian Palm Oil Exports Baidawi, Taufik; Effendi, Muhammad Ridwan; Kuswara, Heri; Wardah, Siti; Falgenti, Kursehi
JURNAL TEKNIK KOMPUTER AMIK BSI Vol 11, No 1 (2025): Periode Januari 2025
Publisher : Universitas Bina Sarana Informatika

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31294/jtk.v11i1.25194

Abstract

Palm oil is a strategic commodity for Indonesia, significantly contributing to state revenue and foreign exchange. In 2022, its export value reached USD 33.7 billion. Accurate forecasting of palm oil exports is crucial due to fluctuating market conditions influenced by global demand, prices, and government policies. However, existing studies on forecasting Indonesian palm oil exports are limited, with most research focusing on other agricultural commodities. This study applies Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing, and Trend Analysis methods to forecast palm oil exports and determine the most accurate method. The results show that the Trend Analysis method yields the lowest Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD = 18505.67) and Mean Squared Error (MSE = 436747200), indicating superior accuracy compared to the other methods. The findings suggest that Trend Analysis can provide stakeholders government, companies, and farmers with valuable insights for strategic decision-making. This research contributes to the development of more precise forecasting models, supporting Indonesia's palm oil industry in maintaining its global competitiveness.
Co-Authors - STMIK Nusa Mandiri, Amin Drajat - STMIK Nusa Mandiri, Deni Kusmana - STMIK Nusa Mandiri, Henry Leonardy Sutrisna - UBSI, Ihsan Mustofa ., Ikromulloh Ahmad Mudrikah Alvin Hidayat Anastasiaa Siwi Fatma Utami Anna Mukhayaroh - Universitas Nusa Mandiri Anna Mukhayaroh, Anna Aryanto - STMIK Nusa Mandiri Aswar Hanif Cholis Ayetulloh Effendi, Muhammad Ridwan Engkus Kuswarno Enita Rosmika Frans Eduard Schaduw Frans Eduard Schaduw - universitas BSI Frans Edward Schaduw Hais Suryana Hana Yustiana Harna Adianto Haryanto Haryanto Henry Leonardy Sutrisna - STMIK Nusa Mandiri Ihsan Mustofa Ihsan Mustofa Juhana, Fahrani Kursehi Falgenti Markus, Lilik Michael Fernando Mikhael Ferdika Mochamad Chandra Andriansyah - STMIK Nusa Mandiri Muhammad Idrus Muhammad Ridwan Effendi Muhammad Rizkiandana - STMIK Nusa Mandiri Nabilah, Jihan Nicodias Palasara Nurvi Oktiani Obeth Andre Wacanno Rasyid, Irnawati Resti Resti Rosmawati Rosmawati Siraji, Mohamad Siti Wardah, Siti Solikhun Solikhun Sopiyan Dalis Sri Ayu Wulandari Suhardoyo Syamsul Bahri T P Dinar - STMIK Nusa Mandiri Taufik Baidawi, Taufik Taufik Frissetyo Usep Kosasih Wahyudi, Endang Wahyudin Wahyudin Wahyudin Wahyudin Yuska Desmahary Zainal Rais Karim