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Journal : civil engineering journal

Fuzzy Bayesian Belief Networks Method on Risk Assessment of EPC Pipeline Project Yusuf, Muhammad; Latief, Yusuf; Rarasati, Ayomi Dita; Trigunarsyah, Bambang; Laksono, Naufal Budi
Civil Engineering Journal Vol 11, No 3 (2025): March
Publisher : Salehan Institute of Higher Education

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.28991/CEJ-2025-011-03-013

Abstract

Subsea gas pipeline projects are experiencing significant technical and managerial challenges across Engineering, Procurement, and Construction (EPC) phases. To address the challenges, effective risk management in the early project phases is essential to mitigating cascading failures that cause significant schedule delay and cost overrun. Therefore, this study aimed to apply the Fuzzy Bayesian Belief Networks (FBBNs) method to model risk assessment during EPC phases. The findings showed that FBBNs made it possible for a new way to evaluate risks, find interdependencies, and guess what would happen next, which created a strong framework for reducing risk. Based on probabilistic analysis as supported by expert elicitation, risks from the early phase of engineering and procurement showed high probabilities of occurrence, including Incompetent Personnel, Project Mismanagement, Unsupportive Stakeholder, Corruption, and Design Inaccuracies. A significant impact was also observed on Construction Rework, Material Quantity Increase, Construction Delay, and Cost Overrun. The results showed the importance of addressing systemic issues early in the EPC project lifecycle, emphasizing personnel competency, design accuracy, strategic and project management planning, procurement management, stakeholder management, and constructability preparation to reduce vulnerabilities. This integrated method aimed to enhance accuracy predictions by determining causal risk probability relationships in high-risk offshore environments of EPC subsea gas pipeline projects. Doi: 10.28991/CEJ-2025-011-03-013 Full Text: PDF
Co-Authors Abdur Rohim Boy Berawi Achmad Firdaus Achmad Jaka Santos Adiwijaya Achmad Jaka Santos Adiwijaya Agung Barokah Waseso Ama Muttahizi Ahadan Auhan Anang Wirdianto Anastasia Chandra Lalita Meliala Andhika Karim, Dr. Rully Anggraeni, Devy Antony Sihombing Arshad, Tuba Arumsari, Putri Asri Puspita Sari Sidabutar Atri Ranindita Bambang Trigunarsyah, Bambang Bani Adlan Tedja Benedictus Wishnu Wintang Kencana Bich, Bich Hanes Boris Sembiring Kembaren Boris Budy Purnomo Wasisso Evita, Meilia Firdaus, Reza Novianda Fitri Hidayati Hendrik Sulistio Henki W Ashadi Herawati Zetha Rahman Ifrad, Andi Muhammad Ilma, Rahma Nur Ilvan Prasetia Nugraha Ineswari Syifa Hayuningtiyas, Ineswari Syifa Irwan Yunianto Isti Surjandari Jade Sjafrecia Petrociany Kambuaya, Flora Tresia Wehelmina Khrisna Yudi Laksono, Naufal Budi Lamari, Fiona Leni Sagita Supriadi, Leni M. Fajar Prasetyo Mohammed Ali Berawi Muhammad Alkausar Muhammad Iqbal Rahmatullah Muhammad Multazam Muhammad Yusuf Nandaka Ekacarana Napitupulu, Reynaldo Vernandes Matheus Neysa Dianesdhika Jasrul Nur Bella Octoria Nurfauziah, Aulia Afifah Ulfah Pandora, Olivia Perdana Miraj Prof. Ir. Sofia W. Alisjahbana, M.Sc., Ph.D., Prof. Ir. Sofia W. Putri Arumsari Rachmawati, Titi Sari Nurul Raden Jachrizal Sumabrata Rafsanjani, Hud Rahman, Wahyu Putra Rahmanea, Awlya Raihan Alisha Nabila Rayhan Mustofa Kartiyasa Riki Handri Muchlis Sakuntara Sjah, Jessica Sultan Rianto Suryana, Yudha Trimuliadi Suyono Dikun Taufiq Dwi Tamtomo Tohho, Given Vian Marantha Haryanto Wahyu Putra Rahman Wisnu Isvara Wuri Anny Yumantini Yudhi Nopryan Dinata Yunianto, Irwan Yusuf Latief