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Rarasati, Ayomi Dita
Civil Engineering Department, Faculty Of Engineering, Universitas Indonesia
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Journal : journal of project management research

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Integrating Solar Photovoltaic Energy Degradation and Financial Performance for Debt Service Capacity Assessment: A Life-Cycle Response Surface Approach Rarasati, Ayomi Dita; Firdaus, Reza Novianda; Ifrad, Andi Muhammad
Journal of Project Management Research Vol. 2 No. 1 (2026): Journal of Project Management Research
Publisher : Avenew Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.65303/journalpmresearch.v2i1.98

Abstract

The development of utility-scale solar photovoltaic projects is subject to energy performance degradation risks that may affect project revenues and the ability to meet financing obligations. Therefore, project evaluation should consider the interrelationship between technical and financial performance throughout the project lifetime. This study aims to analyze the relationship between energy production degradation, revenue, Cash Flow Available for Debt Service , and debt service capacity over a 25-year operational period of a utility-scale solar PV project. The study employs quantitative financial modeling based on an assumed annual module degradation rate of 0.5%. The relationships among the key parameters are analyzed using a Rational 2D Response Surface model and analysis of variance. The results show that energy production decreases by 11.3% over the 25-year operational period, while revenue declines by 11.4%, operating expenditure increases by 103.5%, and Cash Flow Available for Debt Service decreases by 36.7%. The Rational 2D Response Surface model indicates strong relationships among energy production, revenue, Cash Flow Available for Debt Service, and debt service capacity, with R² values exceeding 0.99. These findings demonstrate that reductions in energy production and revenue are accompanied by declines in Cash Flow Available for Debt Service and debt service capacity throughout the operational lifetime of the project. Maintaining the technical performance of solar photovoltaic projects throughout their operational lifetime is essential, as energy production degradation directly affects revenue, Cash Flow Available for Debt Service, and debt service capacity. Quality control from the planning stage through construction is therefore an important component of maintaining the project's financial viability and bankability
Co-Authors Abdur Rohim Boy Berawi Achmad Firdaus Achmad Jaka Santos Adiwijaya Achmad Jaka Santos Adiwijaya Agung Barokah Waseso Ama Muttahizi Ahadan Auhan Anang Wirdianto Anastasia Chandra Lalita Meliala Andhika Karim, Dr. Rully Anggraeni, Devy Antony Sihombing Arshad, Tuba Arumsari, Putri Asri Puspita Sari Sidabutar Atri Ranindita Bambang Trigunarsyah, Bambang Bani Adlan Tedja Benedictus Wishnu Wintang Kencana Bich, Bich Hanes Boris Sembiring Kembaren Boris Budy Purnomo Wasisso Evita, Meilia Firdaus, Reza Novianda Fitri Hidayati Hendrik Sulistio Henki W Ashadi Herawati Zetha Rahman Ifrad, Andi Muhammad Ilma, Rahma Nur Ilvan Prasetia Nugraha Ineswari Syifa Hayuningtiyas, Ineswari Syifa Irwan Yunianto Isti Surjandari Jade Sjafrecia Petrociany Kambuaya, Flora Tresia Wehelmina Khrisna Yudi Laksono, Naufal Budi Lamari, Fiona Leni Sagita Supriadi, Leni M. Fajar Prasetyo Mohammed Ali Berawi Muhammad Alkausar Muhammad Iqbal Rahmatullah Muhammad Multazam Muhammad Yusuf Nandaka Ekacarana Napitupulu, Reynaldo Vernandes Matheus Neysa Dianesdhika Jasrul Nur Bella Octoria Nurfauziah, Aulia Afifah Ulfah Pandora, Olivia Perdana Miraj Prof. Ir. Sofia W. Alisjahbana, M.Sc., Ph.D., Prof. Ir. Sofia W. Putri Arumsari Rachmawati, Titi Sari Nurul Raden Jachrizal Sumabrata Rafsanjani, Hud Rahman, Wahyu Putra Rahmanea, Awlya Raihan Alisha Nabila Rayhan Mustofa Kartiyasa Riki Handri Muchlis Sakuntara Sjah, Jessica Sultan Rianto Suryana, Yudha Trimuliadi Suyono Dikun Taufiq Dwi Tamtomo Tohho, Given Vian Marantha Haryanto Wahyu Putra Rahman Wisnu Isvara Wuri Anny Yumantini Yudhi Nopryan Dinata Yunianto, Irwan Yusuf Latief