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Analisis Peranan Ekonomi Digital dalam Meningkatkan Pendapatan Pelaku Usaha Mikro Kecil Menengah (UMKM) di Indonesia Yolanda Widya Anggreni Situmorang; Bakhtiar Efendi; Lia Nazliana Nasution
Jurnal Ekonomi, Manajemen Pariwisata dan Perhotelan Vol. 4 No. 2 (2025): Jurnal Ekonomi, Manajemen Pariwisata Dan Perhotelan
Publisher : Lembaga Pengembangan Kinerja Dosen

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.55606/jempper.v4i2.4786

Abstract

This study aims to evaluate the extent to which the digital economy plays a role in increasing the income of Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) in Indonesia. This research methodology is quantitative with the Two-Stage Least Squares (TSLS) approach. The variables analyzed include capital, interest rates, inflation, the use of electronic money (e-money), and Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The results reveal that e-money utilization and GDP growth have a significant positive influence on increasing MSME income. In contrast, inflation has a negative impact. The model that includes e-money and inflation variables has the highest R-squared value, indicating a strong explanatory ability of the income variable. These findings reinforce the importance of digital literacy and economic stability as key supporting factors in optimizing the potential of the digital economy for MSME players.
Employment Development Strategies to Support Economic Growth in North Sumatra Syukur Laoli; Annisa Ilmi Faried; Suhendi Suhendi; Lia Nazliana Nasution
International Journal of Economics and Management Sciences Vol. 2 No. 3 (2025): Agustus : International Journal of Economics and Management Sciences
Publisher : Asosiasi Riset Ekonomi dan Akuntansi Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.61132/ijems.v2i3.889

Abstract

This study explores employment development strategies aimed at bolstering economic growth in North Sumatra Province using the Vector Autoregression (VAR) model and an eighteen-year time series dataset. The variables analyzed include the Human Development Index (HDI), total population, Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP), Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR), and Open Unemployment Rate (OUR). The estimation results reveal dynamic interrelationships among these variables over short, medium, and long-term periods. The VAR analysis with a lag of 2 illustrates how each variable contributes to both itself and the other variables. It also shows that past variables (t-1) significantly impact current variables. Furthermore, the response function analysis identifies how a change in one variable is responded to by others across different time horizons. Stability analysis confirms that all variables maintain medium-to-long-term stability over a five-year period. The Forecast Error Variance Decomposition (FEVD) highlights HDI, population, and GRDP as the most influential variables in shaping the employment system and economic development overall. The VAR model used meets the stability test criteria, making the findings a reliable basis for policy research.
Dynamic Analysis of Non-Performing Loans in Indonesian Banking Sinar Andi Putra Munthe; Sanusi Ghazali Pane; Rusiadi Rusiadi; Lia Nazliana Nasution
International Journal of Economics and Management Sciences Vol. 2 No. 4 (2025): November : International Journal of Economics and Management Sciences
Publisher : Asosiasi Riset Ekonomi dan Akuntansi Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.61132/ijems.v2i4.976

Abstract

This study analyzes the dynamics of Non-Performing Loans (NPLs) in the Indonesian banking sector by examining both internal and external factors affecting financial stability. The variables included in the research are NPL, Loan to Deposit Ratio (LDR), lending interest rate, inflation, Household Debt to Income (HDTI), fintech lending, and Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR). Using annual secondary data from 2005 to 2024, sourced from the World Bank and Statistics Indonesia (BPS), the study employs a Vector Autoregression (VAR) method. This method includes stationarity tests, optimal lag selection, cointegration tests, Impulse Response Function (IRF), and Forecast Error Variance Decomposition (FEVD). The results show that most variables demonstrate a dominant contribution from their own shocks, although interactions between variables remain significant. The IRF analysis reveals that CAR and HDTI are relatively stable and quickly return to equilibrium, while fintech lending, inflation, and NPLs show more volatile responses, making them more susceptible to external shocks. LDR and lending interest rates are sensitive in the short term but tend to stabilize over the long run. FEVD further indicates that inflation plays a significant role in driving NPL variations, while fintech lending is closely associated with CAR in the long term. The study concludes that the stability of Indonesia’s banking sector is influenced by both internal factors like CAR and LDR, as well as external factors such as inflation, fintech lending, and household debt. Thus, a coordinated approach involving monetary policy, macroprudential measures, and financial supervision is crucial to enhance the resilience of the banking sector against global and domestic economic shifts.
Adaptive Expectation Stability Model in Controlling Inflation and Unemployment in Heaven Earth Countries Fredi Alwi; Wahyu Indah Sari; Lia Nazliana Nasution
International Conference On Digital Advanced Tourism Management And Technology Vol. 1 No. 2 (2023): International Conference on Digital Advanced Tourism, Management, and Technolog
Publisher : Sekolah Tinggi Ilmu Ekonomi Pariwisata Indonesia Semarang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.56910/ictmt.v1i2.174

Abstract

Adaptive Expectation Stability Model in controlling Inflation and Unemployment in Heaven Earth Country, which functions to see the picture of Inflation and Unemployment conditions in the following year. This study aims to Analyze Gross Domestic Product, Interest Rates and Money Supply affecting Inflation and Unemployment in the short, medium and long term and Analyze the differences in Inflation and Unemployment before and during the Covid 19 pandemic in Heaven Earth Country. This type of research is quantitative analysis using secondary data in time series from 2006 to 2021 (time series) and cross-sections obtained from the World Bank and BPS. The data analysis techniques used are the VAR method and Difference Test. Analysis Results The results of the VAR analysis show that past variables (t-1, t-2) have contributed to the current variables, both for the variables themselves or for other variables. In the medium and long term. and for the results of the Difference Test there is a significant difference during and before covid 19 by the country of Heaven Earth. Suggestions in this study, To stabilize the Inflation and Unemployment rates, government policies are needed to increase interest rates which have an impact on reducing the inflation rate from this decrease in the inflation rate also has an impact on unemployment where when inflation falls, many industrial sectors need more workers to get maximum production results which of course will reduce the Unemployment rate.
A Optimization of Sales Strategies and Inventory Forecasting for Processed Banana Products Utilizing the Conceptual Framework of Economic Efficiency and Accounting Precision Based on Simple Moving Average Zulham Sitorus; Lia Nazliana Nasution; Rahima Br Purba; Amnisuhaila Abarahan; Rowiyah Asengbaramae; Feby Wulandari Sembirinng; Mhd Ihsan Abidi
JURNAL RISET KOMPUTER (JURIKOM) Vol. 13 No. 1 (2026): Februari 2026
Publisher : Universitas Budi Darma

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30865/jurikom.v13i1.9505

Abstract

Fluctuations in demand for processed banana products often lead to inaccurate inventory planning at the MSME scale, resulting in decreased operational efficiency and potential accounting inaccuracies in inventory valuation and the calculation of Cost of Goods Sold (COGS). The calculation of raw material stock forecasting for 2024-2025 produces the following predicted values: 124 bunches of bananas, 80 pieces of chocolate, 81 kg of cooking oil, and 42 kg of granulated sugar. This simple, fast, and accurate forecasting process enables producers to more accurately predict product demand, ultimately reducing the risk of overstocking or shortages. This study aims to optimize sales strategies and inventory forecasting for processed banana products through a conceptual framework that integrates economic efficiency. The method used is the Simple Moving Average (SMA) to forecast inventory needs based on historical sales data at the BananaChips MSME, by testing several variations of the forecasting period to obtain the most stable and representative results. Overall, the recapitulation results show that the Cooking Oil raw material has the highest forecasting accuracy, with the lowest MAPE of 1.81% (MAD 1.50, MSE 5.20). Meanwhile, Granulated Sugar raw material recorded the highest MAPE value of 5.08% (MAD 2.25, MSE 9.73), followed by Chocolate (MAPE 2.43%) and Banana (MAPE 2.18%). The implementation results show an increase in stock management efficiency of up to 20% and a 15% decrease in excess raw materials. These findings indicate that integrating SMA forecasting with an economic efficiency framework and accounting accuracy can improve the quality of inventory and sales decision-making, thereby strengthening the profitability and sustainability of the banana-processed product business at the Bananachips MSME
Pengaruh Penggunaan Transaksi Digital di Berbagai E-commerce Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi di Indonesia Kholidah Lidya Lubis; Lia Nazliana Nasution; Wahyu Indah Sari
Jurnal Publikasi Ekonomi dan Akuntansi Vol. 5 No. 3 (2025): September : Jurnal Publikasi Ekonomi dan Akuntansi (JUPEA)
Publisher : Pusat Riset dan Inovasi Nasional

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.51903/jupea.v5i3.4329

Abstract

In Indonesia economic growth is measured by Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and influenced by advancements in technology, infrastructure and innovation in the digital economy. This study analyzes the impact of digital transactions through e-commerce on economic growth, using indicators such as e-money, inflation, internet users,money supply, e-commerce users and transaction volume.The quantitive method employs time series data from 2014-2024 from the world Bank, Central statistics agency and bank Indonesia. The Two Stage Least Square (TSLS).which shows that transaction volume has significant positive effect on e-money. while the number of internet users and the money suplly have a positive but insignificant effect.E-money has a significant positive effect on economic growh,while the number of e-commerce users has a significant negative effect and inflation has a positive significant effect on economic growth. Strategiesfor services innovation and infrastructure development are needed to support the digital economy.