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All Journal IAES International Journal of Artificial Intelligence (IJ-AI) Transmisi: Jurnal Ilmiah Teknik Elektro Bulletin of Electrical Engineering and Informatics Bulletin of Electrical Engineering and Informatics Jurnal Mahasiswa TEUB Jurnal EECCIS Bulletin of Electrical Engineering and Informatics Network Engineering Research Operation [NERO] Indonesian Journal of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science Jurnal INFOTEL
Mudjirahardjo, Panca
Jurusan Teknik Elektro Fakultas Teknik Universitas Brawijaya
Computer Science & IT Education Electrical & Electronics Engineering Engineering

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Journal : Bulletin of Electrical Engineering and Informatics

 1 
Comparison of Solar Radiation Intensity Forecasting Using ANFIS and Multiple Linear Regression Methods Hadi Suyono; Rini Nur Hasanah; R. A. Setyawan; Panca Mudjirahardjo; Anthony Wijoyo; Ismail Musirin
Bulletin of Electrical Engineering and Informatics Vol 7, No 2: June 2018
Publisher : Institute of Advanced Engineering and Science

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (659.58 KB) | DOI: 10.11591/eei.v7i2.1178

Abstract

Solar radiation forecasting is important in solar energy power plants (SEPPs) development. The electrical energy generated from the sunlight depends on the weather and climate conditions in the area where the SEPPs are installed. The condition of solar irradiation will indirectly affect the electrical grid system into which the SEPPs are injected, i.e. the amount and direction of the power flow, voltage, frequency, and also the dynamic state of the system. Therefore, the prediction of solar radiation condition is very crucial to identify its impact into the system. There are many methods in determining the prediction of solar radiation, either by mathematical approach or by heuristic approach such as artificial intelligent method. This paper analyzes the comparison of two methods, Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference (ANFIS) method, which belongs into the heuristic methods, and Multiple Linear Regression (MLP) method, which uses a mathematical approach. The performance of both methods is measured using the root mean square error (RMSE) and the mean absolute error (MAE) values. The data of the Swiss Basel city from Meteoblue are used to test the performance of the two methods being compared. The data are divided into four cases, being classified as the training data and the data used as predictions. The solar radiation prediction using the ANFIS method indicates the results which are closer to the real measurement results, being compared to the the use MLP method. The average values of RMSE and MAE achieved are 123.27 W/m2 and 90.91 W/m2 using the ANFIS method, being compared to 138.70 W/m2 and 101.56 W/m2 respectively using the MLP method. The ANFIS method gives better prediction performance of 12.51% for RMSE and 11.71% for MAE with respect to the use of the MLP method.
Co-Authors Abdul Goffar Ricky Mahendra Achmad Basuki Adharul Muttaqin Ahmad Syafiq Kanzul Fikri Aiman Muhamad Basymeleh Airlangga, Daniar Putri Alkafi Dimitri Sukmana Andy Kurnia Santoso Angger Abdul Razak Anthony Wijoyo Arafah, Ghifari Raihan Bagus Esa Pramudya Bidin Yuniar Hamzah Bima Feridhan Nugraha Bimasena, Muhammad Farrel Brahmana, Nigel Shidqy Razendriya Chandra Halim Harahap Dachlan, Hary Soekotjo Danny Kurnianto Doni Juli Wiranata Eka Maulana Erni Yudaningtyas Esa Ilham Akbar Faradisa , Annisa' Illah Farihah Hedar Fatchur Rozi Al Fitrah Fauzi, Maher Feishal Reza Firmansyah, Vicky Gilang Luih Pinandita Haidar Taqy Hartono, Rafendra Ariwardana Hary Soekotjo Dachlan Hasdi Sasandi Ismail Musirin Ismail Musirin Ita Dwi Purnamasari Izanati, Nazuha Juan Mora Michael Marbun Juli Arianes Leonard Dimas Prakoso Lilik J. Awalin Lukman Gumelar M Fauzan Edy Purnomo M. Hanif Azhary M. Julius St Julius St M. Julius St Julius St, M. Julius St Machfud Firmansyah Manerep Luis Fernando Purba Marco Gunawan Maulana, Eka Miladina Rizka Aziza Mohammad Alif Robby Gani Mohammad Ilhammudin Toiyib Monifa Arini Muhammad Akbar Muhammad Aziz Muslim Muhammad Ikhsan Muhammad Ivan Fadillah Muhammad Rafi’ Zaidan Maajid n/a Soeprapto Nanang Sulistiyanto Nathanael, Indra Notario Pramudita Nugraha, Dimas Aji Nurus Sa'adah Octarudin Mahendra Oky Risky Dwi Santoso Pangemanan, Christofel Panjaitan, Gian Amadea Pebrianto, Wahyu Permatasari, Alissa Dyah Ayu Ponco Siwindarto Pratolo Rahardjo R. A. Setyawan Rachmawati, Luthfiyah Raden Arief Setyawan Rahmadwati Rahmadwati Rahmadwati, n/a Rahmadwati, n/a Rahmadwati, Rahmadwati Rauf, Daru Adiyatma Reinato Teguh Santoso Reza, Feishal Ricky Insyani Santosa P. P. Ridho Herasmara Rif'an, Mochammad Rifqa Asruroh Efnif Rini Nur Hasanah Riza Hasbi Ash Shiddieqy Rizky Aiman Haniffalah Harijanto Robbith Qosath Al Auhi Rohman, Muhammad Ariefur Samuel Aji Sena Sena, Samuel Aji Septi Uliyani Sholeh Hadi Pramono Sirojul Hadi Sofyan Andika Yusuf Sultoni Sultoni Sultoni, Sultoni Surya Agung Kurnia Suyono, Hadi Syarifah, Naily Tri Nurwati Vira Zafarin Waru Djuriatno Waru Djuriatno Wuri Roro Indraswari yuliana diah pristanti Zainuri, Akhmad