Ahmad, Fahmi Salam
Departement Of Economics, Faculty Of Economics And Management, IPB University

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Journal : Jurnal Manajemen dan Agribisnis

Covid-19 Pandemic and Volatility of Sugar Price at Regional Level in Indonesia for The Period August 2018-August 2021 Meliany, Birka Septy; Sahara; Probokawuryan, Mutiara; Ahmad, Fahmi Salam
Jurnal Manajemen & Agribisnis Vol. 19 No. 2 (2022): JMA Vol. 19 No. 2, July 2022
Publisher : School of Business, Bogor Agricultural University (SB-IPB)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.17358/jma.19.2.229

Abstract

It is expected that the COVID-19 pandemic provides a significant impact on food price volatility in many products including sugar. The paper aims to analyze the price dynamic of sugar before covid (1st August – 2nd March 2020) and during the covid outbreak (3rd March – 31th August 2021) in all provinces in Indonesia by using the t-test and ARCH GARCH model. Based on Augmented Dickey-Fuller analysis before and during covid, the prices of sugar in Indonesia were stationary at the “first difference”. The results reveal that the prices of sugar in all provinces in Indonesia before covid was lower compared to during the COVID-19 pandemic. According to ARCH GARCH results, sugar prices were much more volatile in Riau, Jambi, West Java, East Nusa Tenggara, West Kalimantan, South Sulawesi, Central Sulawesi, and West Papua. As such, the government should focus to reduce the price volatility of sugar in these provinces. Keywords: ARCH GARCH, COVID-19, sugar prices, stationarity, volatility
Assessing The Impacts of Food and Mouth Disease Outbreak on The Indonesian Economy and Its Regional Growth Sahara, Sahara; Sugema, Iman; Amaliah, Syarifah; Probokawuryan, Mutiara; Ahmad, Fahmi Salam
Jurnal Manajemen & Agribisnis Vol. 20 No. 3 (2023): JMA Vol. 20 No. 3, November 2023
Publisher : School of Business, Bogor Agricultural University (SB-IPB)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.17358/jma.20.3.513

Abstract

Foot and mouth disease (FMD) is typically endemic and commonly found as a recurring issue in many developing countries, including Indonesia. In 2022, FMD has massively spread to 62 districts and cities so that it was declared an outbreak which caused significant economic losses. In this paper, we attempt to assess the impacts of FMD on the Indonesian economy by using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) approach. The results show that the FMD outbreak caused negative pressure on national economic growth, reducing the real wage and consumption, as well as exacerbating trade deficit. The outbreak also induced higher prices of beef and dairy sectors as well as their related sectors. Based on the regional perspective, the main production regions of beef and dairy are expected to suffer higher economic loss than that of other regions. Meanwhile, at the household level, the outbreak caused considerable effect in lowering income and consumption, particularly for rural farm households. Some necessary policies to overcome the outbreak, consisting of establishing a FMD handling post, promoting vaccination, extending financial supports, and maintaining communication and transparency with other countries regarding the outbreak status. Keywords: Computable General Equilibrium (CGE), Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD), livestock, macroeconomy, regional