Articles
<![CDATA[El Nino And Determinants of The Output of Micro and Small Industry in Java ]]>
<![CDATA[Hermanto Siregar]]>;
<![CDATA[Fahmi Salam Ahmad]]>;
<![CDATA[Heni Hasanah]]>;
<![CDATA[Syamsul Hidayat Pasaribu]]>
<![CDATA[ Indonesian Journal of Business and Entrepreneurship (IJBE) Vol. 6 No. 1 (2020): IJBE, Vol. 6 No. 1, January 2020 ]]>
Publisher : <![CDATA[School of Business, IPB University (SB-IPB) ]]>
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DOI: 10.17358/ijbe.6.1.97
<![CDATA[Micro and small industry sector plays an important role in the economy of a country including Indonesia, due to its large contribution to gross domestic product and its large labor absorption. The output of the sector is influenced by economic variables and non-economic factors such as the El Nino climate phenomenon. The purpose of this study is to analyze the impact of these economic factors and the climate phenomenon on the output of micro and small industries in Java by using panel data, which are combination of cross section and time series, i.e. 6 provinces of Java from 2011 to 2017. The results showed that these economic factors have positive effect on the output while El Nino has negative effect. In accordance with these results, the government needs to actively facilitate micro and small industries in the fulfillment of economic factors and assist the business actors in anticipating and mitigating the impact of El Nino. Keywords: Economic factors, El Nino, micro and small industry, panel data method]]>
<![CDATA[Financial Inclusion and Demand for Money: a Dynamic Panel Data Approach ]]>
<![CDATA[Zelin Nurfadia Sidik]]>;
<![CDATA[Noer Azam Achsani]]>;
<![CDATA[Syamsul Hidayat Pasaribu]]>
<![CDATA[ Signifikan: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi Vol 7, No 2 (2018) ]]>
Publisher : <![CDATA[Faculty of Economic and Business Syarif Hidayatullah State Islamic University of Jakarta ]]>
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DOI: 10.15408/sjie.v7i2.6838
<![CDATA[Financial inclusion is designed to increase the opportunities and society participation in the formal financial institution, especially for unbanked people. Moreover, financial inclusion is one of strategy inclusive economic growth. However, financial inclusion may lead an ineffectiveness of monetary policy. It is because financial inclusion can affect the sensitivity of interest rate, and it could cause instability demand for money. Therefore, the research aims to analyze the impact of financial inclusion on demand for money, reserve money (M0), in 36 countries for the period 2004 to 2014. The method that used is Dynamic Panel Approach. The result shows that financial inclusion stimulates the increase of demand for reserve money (M0) in developed countries. In the other hand, the increasing of financial inclusion could decrease the demand for reserve money (M0) in developing countries.DOI: 10.15408/sjie.v7i2.6838]]>
<![CDATA[The Impact of El Nino on Inflation in Regional Indonesia: Spatial Panel Approach ]]>
<![CDATA[Fahmi Salam Ahmad]]>;
<![CDATA[Hermanto Siregar]]>;
<![CDATA[Syamsul Hidayat Pasaribu]]>
<![CDATA[ Signifikan: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi Vol 8, No 1 (2019) ]]>
Publisher : <![CDATA[Faculty of Economic and Business Syarif Hidayatullah State Islamic University of Jakarta ]]>
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DOI: 10.15408/sjie.v8i1.7130
<![CDATA[The study about the relationship between climate and economy is essential because it’s understanding is the key to formulate the effective economic policy. El Nino is one of the climate phenomena's that directly impact Indonesia, so it is necessary to analyze its effect on the macroeconomic condition such as inflation. This study aims to analyze the impact of El Nino as an external factor and the impact of another relevant economic factor on the macroeconomic condition such as inflation at the regional level (province) in Indonesia. The method used is a spatial panel method to capture the effect of inter-regional spatial interactions. The results show that El Nino has a positive effect on inflation in the southern Indonesian provinces that are affected by El Nino, but no effect in northern Indonesia. The other significant determinants of regional inflation are minimum wage, local revenue, local government spending, and infrastructure. There is significant spatial dependence on regional inflation in Indonesia, indicating that the inflations of its neighboring provinces influence the inflation of a province.]]>
<![CDATA[ANALISIS KESENJANGAN TABUNGAN-INVESTASI BERDASARKAN RESIDUAL MODEL: STUDI KASUS ASEAN-4 ]]>
<![CDATA[Syamsul Hidayat Pasaribu]]>
<![CDATA[ Journal of Indonesian Economy and Business (JIEB) Vol 18, No 1 (2003): January ]]>
Publisher : <![CDATA[Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Gadjah Mada ]]>
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DOI: 10.22146/jieb.6610
<![CDATA[This paper attempts to explain and estimate the two-gap analysis in terms of capitalmobility by residual of econometric models. The research presents the cases of ASEAN-4(Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines and Thailand). The two-gap analysis is an identity and itcannot be estimated by the econometric method. For the purposes of this research, first the identity is modified in econometric models. Second, then the modified models could beestimated.Estimating identity with econometric model has at least two advantages. (1) Theresidual of econometric model could be interpreted as the variables that are not allowed inthe model. (2) The residual of econometric model is minimized, so the residual model interm of this research could be interpreted as minimum value of the government or privatesaving-investment gap.The results show the models that have been modified in econometric models can capturethe identity of two-gap analysis. The better estimated models to explain the capital mobility of those countries are the private saving-investment gap models, except for Indonesian case. Moreover, the residuals of the private saving-investment gap models can capture the estimated values of the government saving-investment gaps, especially in the cases of Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand.Keywords: two-gap analysis; saving-investment gap; ordinary least squares; errorcorrection model.]]>
<![CDATA[PENDEKATAN KOREKSI KESALAHAN DALAM PERSAMAAN SIMULTAN STUDI KASUS: PENDAPATAN DAN PENAWARAN UANG DI INDONESIA ]]>
<![CDATA[Syamsul Hidayat Pasaribu]]>;
<![CDATA[Samsubar Saleh]]>
<![CDATA[ Journal of Indonesian Economy and Business (JIEB) Vol 16, No 1 (2001): January ]]>
Publisher : <![CDATA[Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Gadjah Mada ]]>
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DOI: 10.22146/jieb.6799
<![CDATA[This paper attempts to introduce and apply the error correction method to estimate the simultanous-equation models and compares its results with the similar method in the case of single equation model.The empirical results show that the estimations in the case of simultanous-equation models have the similar conclusions with the case of single equation models since the fitted values of dependent variables in the reduced-form estimations are relatively close to its actual values. On the other hand, they will be quite diffrence if the fitted values of dependent variables in the reduced-form estimations quite differ from its actual values.The results show that short-run changes in money supply (M) and investment (I) have significant and positive effects on income (Y) while government expenditure (G) is insignificant and that about 0,9151% of the discrepancy between the actual and the long-run, or equilibrium, value of Y is corrected each year by the single equation assumption and 0,8706% by the simultanous-equation assumption.The results also show that short-run changes in income (Y) have significant and positive effects while interest rate (R) is insignificant on money supply (M) and that about 0,2327% of the discrepancy between the actual and the long-run, or equilibrium, value of M is corrected each year by the single equation assumption and 0,2346% by the simultanous-equation assumption.Keywords: ordinary least square, two stages least square, error correction method.]]>
<![CDATA[EMPIRICAL STUDY OF VOLATILITY PROCESS ON ERROR CORRECTION MODEL ESTIMATION ]]>
<![CDATA[Syamsul Hidayat Pasaribu]]>
<![CDATA[ Journal of Indonesian Economy and Business (JIEB) Vol 17, No 4 (2002): October ]]>
Publisher : <![CDATA[Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Gadjah Mada ]]>
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DOI: 10.22146/jieb.6812
<![CDATA[Ada dua tujuan yang ingin dicapai dalam penelitian ini. Pertama, adalah untuk menyelidiki apakah dalam estimasi model koreksi kesalahan atau error correction model (ECM) terdapat proses volatilitas. Jika ternyata ada, maka model estimasi koreksi kesalahan seharusnya diestimasi dengan menggunakan model volatilitas. Hasil empirik estimasi ECM ternyata mengindikasikan adanya proses volatilitas yang ditunjukkan oleh signifikannya pengujian Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH).Tujuan kedua adalah untuk menentukan model yang paling baik antara estimasi ECM dan estimasi ECM yang diikuti dengan proses volatilitas. Setelah dilakukan estimasi terhadap kedua model tersebut ternyata dapat disimpulkan bahwa estimasi model ECM dengan proses Generalized ARCH (EC-GARCH) lebih baik dibandingkan dengan estimasi model ECM. Sebagai contoh kasus digunkan model estimasi indeks harga saham gabungan di bursa efek Jakarta (BEJ).Keywords: error correction model, volatility process, GARCH, EC-GARCH.]]>
<![CDATA[Economic Complexity and Sustainable Growth in Developing Countries ]]>
<![CDATA[Lilis Hoeriyah]]>;
<![CDATA[Nunung Nuryartono]]>;
<![CDATA[Syamsul Hidayat Pasaribu]]>
<![CDATA[ Economics Development Analysis Journal Vol 11 No 1 (2022): Economics Development Analysis Journal ]]>
Publisher : <![CDATA[Economics Development Department, Universitas Negeri Semarang, Indonesia ]]>
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DOI: 10.15294/edaj.v11i1.47294
<![CDATA[Most developing countries in this study are middle to low-income countries that have a relatively low economic complexity. This study aims to analyze the effect of the economic complexity on economic growth in 86 developing countries in 2010-2019. The method used is the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) to capture dynamic panel analysis. The estimation results using the System GMM show that economic complexity has a positive effect on economic growth in developing countries. Increasing economic complexity encourages a structural transformation through high value-added economic sectors' creation to produce more complex products for earning a higher income. Human capital does not have a significant effect on economic growth because developing countries have relatively low-quality workers both in terms of education and health. The human capital development and government spending on the health sector are necessary to accelerate sustainable economic growth.]]>
<![CDATA[Dampak Teknologi Informasi Dan Komunikasi Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Kawasan Barat Dan Timur Indonesia : Badan Pusat Statistik, Institut Pertanian Bogor ]]>
<![CDATA[Bang]]>;
<![CDATA[Bangsawan]]>;
<![CDATA[Nuryartono, Nunung]]>;
<![CDATA[Pasaribu, Syamsul Hidayat]]>
<![CDATA[ Jurnal Ekonomi dan Kebijakan Pembangunan Vol. 12 No. 2 (2023): Jurnal Ekonomi dan Kebijakan Pembangunan ]]>
Publisher : <![CDATA[IPB University ]]>
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DOI: 10.29244/jekp.12.2.2023.146-158
<![CDATA[Tiga komponen utama dalam pertumbuhan ekonomi adalah akumulasi modal, pertumbuhan penduduk, dan kemajuan teknologi. Salah satu bentuk teknologi yang mengalami tingkat perkembangan pesat di tingkat global maupun nasional adalah teknologi informasi dan komunikasi (TIK). TIK berperan penting dalam menunjang kegiatan para pelaku dalam meningkatkan output berupa barang dan jasa. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis dampak TIK terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di kawasan barat Indonesia (KBI) dan kawasan timur Indonesia (KTI) dengan menggunakan analisis deskriptif dan model Generalized Method of Momment (GMM) selama periode 2016-2020. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa variabel TIK untuk telepon kabel, telepon seluler, dan belanja TIK pemerintah berpengaruh signifikan dalam mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi di kawasan timur, sedangkan untuk kawasan barat variabel TIK tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. Kawasan barat belum mampu memanfaatkan implementasi teknologi telepon seluler maupun belanja TIK secara maksimal dalam meningkatkan perekonomian. Untuk memperoleh manfaat TIK sebagai penggerak ekonomi di setiap daerah, diperlukan peran pengambil kebijakan dalam mendorong adopsi TIK di sektor produktif dan menyediakan akses serta infrastruktur teknologi yang dapat menjangkau seluruh wilayah dan seluruh lapisan masyarakat.]]>
<![CDATA[Analisis Respon Kredit Perbankan terhadap Kebijakan Quantitative Easing di Masa Pandemi Covid-19 di Indonesia: Institut Pertanian Bogor ]]>
<![CDATA[Fikri, Reza Jamilah]]>;
<![CDATA[Iman Sugema]]>;
<![CDATA[Syamsul Hidayat Pasaribu]]>
<![CDATA[ Jurnal Ekonomi dan Kebijakan Pembangunan Vol. 12 No. 2 (2023): Jurnal Ekonomi dan Kebijakan Pembangunan ]]>
Publisher : <![CDATA[IPB University ]]>
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DOI: 10.29244/jekp.12.2.2023.185-204
<![CDATA[Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk mengidentifikasi respon kredit/pembiayaan perbankan dan menganalisis variabel karakteristik bank apa saja yang menyebabkan dan berpotensi membedakan respon kredit/pembiayaan perbankan setelah penerapan kebijakan Quantitative Easing selama pandemi Covid-19 di Indonesia. Penelitian ini menggunakan Tipologi Klaassen, Analisis Diskriminan, dan metode Multinomial Logistic. Dengan data kuantitatif dari 30 bank yang masuk dalam buku 2 dan 3, diperoleh hasil bahwa Pada Quantitative Easing 1 masing-masing terdapat 15 bank yang memiliki pertumbuhan kredit/pembiayaan positif, sedangkan pada pelonggaran kuantitatif 2 terdapat 14 bank yang memiliki pertumbuhan kredit/pembiayaan positif dan 16 bank dengan pertumbuhan kredit/pembiayaan stagnan atau negatif dengan variabel yang dapat membedakan respon kredit bank adalah pertumbuhan deposit. Studi ini juga menyimpulkan bahwa dengan metode Multinomial Logistic menunjukkan bahwa variabel positif yang signifikan di semua kuadran adalah rasio aset sekuritas terhadap total aset]]>
<![CDATA[Impact of Climate Change on The Export of Palm Oil, Coffee Beans, and Cocoa Beans ]]>
<![CDATA[Purbantoro, Bhirawa Anoraga]]>;
<![CDATA[Anggraeni, Lukytawati]]>;
<![CDATA[Pasaribu, Syamsul Hidayat]]>
<![CDATA[ Jurnal Manajemen dan Agribisnis Vol. 21 No. 1 (2024): JMA Vol. 21 No. 1, March 2024 ]]>
Publisher : <![CDATA[School of Business, Bogor Agricultural University (SB-IPB) ]]>
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DOI: 10.17358/jma.21.1.25
<![CDATA[Climate change is believed to impact the economy of a country. The production of food crop commodities is one of the activities that is negatively impacted by the climate change and the volume of exports. Palm oil, coffee beans, and cocoa beans are the agricultural sector's leading commodities with high competitiveness in international markets and contribute significantly to exporting countries' economies. This research aims to determine the impact of climate change (changes in the annual average temperature and total annual precipitation) on the exports of the three commodities. This study uses secondary data from various sources. The data were analyzed using panel data regression analysis. The result shows that temperature and precipitation variables have different effects on the three commodities. Temperature and precipitation variables have a significant adverse impact on coffee bean exports. In contrast, temperature and precipitation variables positively affect palm oil exports. Meanwhile, for cocoa beans, only the precipitation variable positively affects export. Adaptation action by introducing climate varietas is important to maintain future exports of those commodities. Keywords: precipitation, panel data, leading commodities, climate change, agricultural sector's]]>
