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Analisis Risiko Perceraian berdasarkan Usia Suami di Kota Pekanbaru Marizal, Muhammad; Putri, Mutia Rahmatul; Putri, Satriani; Lestari, Tri Uci
Psikobuletin:Buletin Ilmiah Psikologi Vol 5, No 1 (2024): Psikobuletin: Buletin Ilmiah Psikologi
Publisher : Universitas Islam Negeri Sultan Syarif Kasim Riau

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24014/pib.v5i1.28553

Abstract

Pernikahan merupakan suatu ikatan yang sakral dalam hukum dan agama untuk mengikat sepasang suami dan istri dalam membina rumah tangga dengan dasar tujuan untuk membentuk keluarga yang harmonis. Usia pernikahan antara 0-5 tahun merupakan masa-masa rawan yang disebut sebagai era kritis. Pengalaman bersama yang dialami belum banyak sehingga memicu timbulnya risiko perceraian yang tinggi. Berdasarkan data dari Pengadilan Agama Kota Pekanbaru terdapat 127 pasangan yang bercerai pada tahun 2021. Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk mengetahui lama pernikahan berdasarkan faktor usia suami lebih muda dari istri dengan menggunakan metode Kaplan Meier dan Uji Log-Rank. Berdasarkan hasil analisis dari 127 sampel penelitian, terdapat sebanyak 45 pasangan dinyatakan bercerai pada usia pernikahan 0-5 tahun dan 82 pasangan bercerai pada usia pernikahan lebih dari 5 tahun dan dari hasil uji Log-Rank diperoleh bahwa terdapat perbedaan yang signifikan antara peluang usia suami di atas 38 tahun dan di bawah 38 tahun terhadap lama pernikahan. Usia suami di bawah 38 tahun lebih berpeluang besar menyebabkan perceraian dibandingkan usia suami di atas 38 tahun.
Modeling of Multiple Statistical Distributions for Extreme Rainfall Data Using Maximum Likelihood Estimation Methods and Bayesian Methods Marizal, Muhammad; Jannah, Zahratul
Vokasi Unesa Bulletin of Engineering, Technology and Applied Science Vol. 3 No. 1 (2026)
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Surabaya or The State University of Surabaya

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.26740/vubeta.v3i1.44270

Abstract

The city of Pekanbaru has rapidly developed into a metropolitan hub, facing challenges such as floods and haze caused by extreme rainfall events. This study proposes a novel combination of Generalized Extreme Value (GEV), Generalized Logistic (GLO), and Generalized Pareto (GP) distributions, utilizing Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) methods, to model annual extreme rainfall data for the period 2010–2024. Rainfall data were sourced from NASA/POWER. Model performance was evaluated using Relative Root Mean Square Error (RRMSE), Relative Absolute Square Error (RASE), and Probability Plot Correlation Coefficient (PPCC). The Bayesian method yielded superior performance with RRMSE = 0.3166, RASE = 0.2682, and PPCC = 0.00485 for the GEV distribution, outperforming MLE. The novelty lies in applying this methodological combination to Pekanbaru's rainfall dataset for the first time, providing valuable insights for flood mitigation, drainage planning, and urban water resource management.
Modeling the Risk of Divorce in the Age Range of Marriage 1 – 10 Years using Weibull and Exponential Distributions Desvina, Ari Pani; Marizal, Muhammad; Rahmi, Asra
Jurnal Sains Matematika dan Statistika Vol 12, No 1 (2026): JSMS Januari 2026
Publisher : Universitas Islam Negeri Sultan Syarif Kasim Riau

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24014/jsms.v12i1.38936

Abstract

Divorce is an act that is permitted in Islam but is hated by Allah. The rise in divorce over the last decade has become a serious concern for those involved in maintaining the resilience of household relationships. So, it is necessary to analyze at what age marriage becomes critical for maintaining it. This research uses divorce data from 2015 to 2020, with a variable measuring the maximum length of marriage at 10 years. The data used is secondary data obtained from the Pekanbaru Religious Court for 298 divorce cases. The analysis was carried out by determining the most appropriate distribution for modeling divorce data in Pekanbaru City: the Weibull or the Exponential distribution. This determination was carried out by a goodness-of-fit test using Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC). The results show that the Weibull distribution is the most appropriate for modeling divorce data in Pekanbaru, with the highest divorce risk at a marriage age of around 42 months (3.5 years), with a probability of divorce of 14%.