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All Journal Jurnal Media Infotama Proceeding SENDI_U Jurnal RESTI (Rekayasa Sistem dan Teknologi Informasi) Jurnal Teknologi Komputer dan Sistem Informasi Journal of Innovation and Future Technology (IFTECH) Journal of Applied Engineering and Technological Science (JAETS) JURNAL PENELITIAN PERAWAT PROFESIONAL Indonesian Journal of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science Abdimasku : Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat Jurnal PkM: Pemberdayaan Masyarakat International Journal of Computer and Information System (IJCIS) Jurnal Pengabdian kepada Masyarakat JAST Jurnal Sains Teknologi dan Sistem Informasi Jurnal Dinamika Informatika (JDI) Jurnal Ilmu Komputer dan Teknologi (IKOMTI) Empowerment Journal Indonesian Journal of Information Technology and Computing (IMAGING) Inovasi Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat (IJPM) Jurnal Riset Sistem dan Teknologi Informasi PEDAMAS (Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat) Jurnal TAM (Technology Acceptance Model) JTKSI (Jurnal Teknologi Komputer dan Sistem Informasi) Jurnal Penelitian Perawat Profesional
Ismail Setiawan
Universitas 'Aisyiyah Surakarta
Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Humanities Automotive Engineering Civil Engineering, Building, Construction & Architecture Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Electrical & Electronics Engineering Energy Engineering Environmental Science Health Professions Industrial & Manufacturing Engineering Languange, Linguistic, Communication & Media Law, Crime, Criminology & Criminal Justice Library & Information Science Mechanical Engineering Medicine & Pharmacology Nursing Public Health Social Sciences Veterinary Other

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Explainable AI for Student Dropout Prediction: A Hierarchical LightGBM Approach Ismail Setiawan; Rahmat Gernowo; Budi Warsito
Jurnal RESTI (Rekayasa Sistem dan Teknologi Informasi) Vol 10 No 5 (2026): October 2026
Publisher : Ikatan Ahli Informatika Indonesia (IAII)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29207/resti.v10i5.7793

Abstract

The high dropout rate in health science programs not only affects the efficiency of educational management but also threatens the stability of the professional medical workforce. This research proposes a Hierarchical Early Warning System (HEWS) framework using the Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM) algorithm to predict student dropout risks at an early stage, utilizing a primary dataset of academic and demographic records from an Indonesian health sciences faculty. While previous studies predominantly utilized full-trajectory academic records, this study compares the model's performance across two temporal scenarios: early detection using historical data up to the second semester and full-trajectory evaluation. The Synthetic Minority Over-sampling Technique (SMOTE) is applied to address the extreme class imbalance inherent in educational datasets. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model achieves an F1-Score of 0.95 for the minority class in both internal scenarios and maintains a robust F1-Score of 0.91 when validated against an international dataset. Furthermore, SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) is integrated to dissect the algorithm's black-box nature. The SHAP analysis reveals a critical shift in risk drivers: high school education quality and first-semester grades dominate the early detection phase, whereas fourth-semester grades and sick leave frequencies become primary predictors in the full-trajectory phase. These findings provide actionable insights for university management to design targeted academic and psychological interventions, thereby supporting the achievement of Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) 3 and 4.
Co-Authors Achmad Noerkhaerin Putra Aisyah Mutia Dawis Ana Dwi Irianti Apolinario dos Santos Ardhani, Rahmad Ari Pantjarani Badriyah Rifani Budi Warsito Dedi Gunawan Dewanta, Wika Eko Purbiyanto Elfrida Ratnawati Erna Kumalasari Nurnawati Erna Kumalasari Nurnawati Exda Hanung Lidiana Fatah Yasin, Ilham Fuad Dwi Artha Hanif Mustikasari Hanung Adi Nugroho Heru Supriyono Irfan Sadida Ita Permatahati Kresno Ario Tri Wibowo Lidiana, Exda Hanung Mieska Despitasari Muhammad Fadhil, Taqy Nafisah Miftahul Jannah, Ilma Nurhayati Nurhayati Rahmat Gernowo Renata Fina Antika Cahyani Rifa'i Wahid Ahmad Iktisom Sigit Setiyanto Supriono, Heru Surya Kusuma, Ridho Tri Desianti, Yuninda Ulun, Nutfah Ailul Wika Dewanta Yulia Dewi Wijayanti Yuniarti, Arinia Hasna