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All Journal BIMASTER CAUCHY: Jurnal Matematika Murni dan Aplikasi ComTech: Computer, Mathematics and Engineering Applications GERVASI: Jurnal Pengabdian kepada Masyarakat JUDIKA (JURNAL PENDIDIKAN UNSIKA) Jurnal Matematika UNAND Jurnal Pengabdian kepada Masyarakat Nusantara Tensor: Pure and Applied Mathematics Journal Jurnal Abdimas Bina Bangsa Jurnal Eurekamatika
NUR’AINUL MIFTAHUL HUDA
Universitas Tanjungpura
Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Engineering Industrial & Manufacturing Engineering Languange, Linguistic, Communication & Media Mathematics Social Sciences Other

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Spatio-Temporal Forecasting and Continuous Spatial Reconstruction of Fire Radiative Power Using Sequential GSTARX-IDW and Ordinary Kriging Nurfitri Imro'ah; Nur'ainul Miftahul Huda; Yundari Yundari; Gita Fitriyana
CAUCHY: Jurnal Matematika Murni dan Aplikasi Vol 11, No 2 (2026): CAUCHY: JURNAL MATEMATIKA MURNI DAN APLIKASI
Publisher : Mathematics Department, Maulana Malik Ibrahim State Islamic University of Malang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.18860/cauchy.v11i2.44480

Abstract

This study presents a sequential hybrid spatio-temporal forecasting framework combining the Generalized Space-Time Autoregressive with Exogenous Variables (GSTARX-IDW) model and Ordinary Kriging (OK) to model and map weekly Fire Radiative Power (FRP) dynamics in West Kalimantan from January 2021 to October 2025. A strong dominance of spatial contagion was observed, with the spatial autoregressive parameter (p1) being statistically significant across 95.56% of operational grid centroids, providing empirical validation of Tobler's First Law of Geography. Locally, Land Surface Temperature (LST) serves as a key exogenous forcing variable, exhibiting geographical dichotomies driven by localized microclimatic conditions and peatland hydrology. To overcome the limitation of discrete point forecasts at grid centroids, Ordinary Kriging was applied directly to the k-step ahead GSTARX-IDW point forecasts, successfully reconstructing continuous spatial risk surfaces for October 2025. Evaluated through robust out-of-sample metrics, the framework achieved a Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) of 1.1380, a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 0.8736, and a Mean Absolute Scaled Error (MASE) of 1.0008, demonstrating competitive temporal point forecasting on par with baseline dynamics while offering superior spatial continuous risk mapping. This sequential framework provides a mathematically grounded baseline for short-term spatio-temporal risk assessment in highly fragmented tropical landscapes.
Inovasi Media Pembelajaran Realistik Interaktif bagi Siswa Sekolah Dasar di Pulau Lemukutan Nur'ainul Miftahul Huda; Evi Noviani; Bayu Prihandono; Nilamsari Kusumastuti; Yundari Yundari; Helmi Helmi; Yudhi Yudhi; Fransiskus Fran; Meliana Pasaribu; Onelia Rochmah; Asri Rahmawati
Jurnal Pengabdian kepada Masyarakat Nusantara Vol. 7 No. 2 (2026): Edisi Mei - Agustus
Publisher : Lembaga Dongan Dosen

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.55338/jpkmn.v7i2.8731

Abstract

Kesenjangan mutu pendidikan di wilayah kepulauan, seperti di Pulau Lemukutan, diperparah oleh keterbatasan sarana pembelajaran matematika yang kontekstual. Pengabdian ini bertujuan mengatasi rendahnya pemahaman konsep matematika melalui implementasi pendekatan Realistic Mathematics Education (RME) berbasis media interaktif. Metode pelaksanaan meliputi sosialisasi, pendampingan belajar bagi siswa kelas IV-VI di SDN 06 Pulau Lemukutan, serta evaluasi hasil belajar. Hasil kegiatan menunjukkan dampak positif yang konkret bagi mitra. Pada kelas V dan VI, terjadi peningkatan skor rata-rata yang signifikan sebesar 12,31 poin, di mana mayoritas siswa berhasil mencapai kategori nilai tinggi (≥80) dengan sebaran kemampuan yang lebih merata. Meskipun peningkatan di kelas IV cenderung kecil (2,86 poin) karena adanya disparitas kemampuan awal, penggunaan media realistik terbukti meningkatkan motivasi dan keterlibatan aktif siswa dalam memecahkan masalah sehari-hari. Simpulan dari pengabdian ini adalah media realistik interaktif efektif menjadi solusi pembelajaran di wilayah pesisir, namun memerlukan strategi pendampingan diferensiasi tambahan untuk jenjang kelas yang lebih rendah guna memastikan pemerataan capaian belajar.
Co-Authors Abang Yogi Pratama Ahmad Fernanda Arini, Nani Fitria Asri Rahmawati Bayu Prihandono Dadan Kusnandar Daniel Happy Putra Dea Rizki Darmawanti Eligia Helvianti Tri Lina P ERNA YULIANTI Evi Novian Evi Noviani Fahiza Syanaya Fansiskus Fran Fransiskus Fran Fransiskus Fran Gita Fitriyana Helmi Helmi Helmi Hesty Pratiwi Hesty Pratiwi Imro'ah, Nurfitri Kartika Sari Kartika Sari Laurens Paskhia Dirda Rusanditia Mariatul Kiftiah Meliana Pasaribu Mudinillah, Adam Muhammad Septian Muhammad Yahya Ayyash Muhammad Yahya Ayyash Nani Fitria Arini Naomi Nessyana Debataraja Nilamsari Kusumastuti Nurfitri Imro'ah Nurfitri Imro'ah Nurfitri Imro'ah Nurfitri Imroah NURFITRI IMRO’AH Nurfitri Imro’ah Onelia Rochmah Rahmi Hidayati Rika Mailanda Sari Devi Asri Shantika Martha Theresia Resi Trydini Umairah, Tarisa Utami, Dewi Setyo Wirda Andani Yudhi Yundari, Yundari Yundari, Yundari Yusi Sania