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All Journal Media Statistika JURNAL MATEMATIKA STATISTIKA DAN KOMPUTASI CAUCHY: Jurnal Matematika Murni dan Aplikasi Jurnal Ilmiah Pangabdhi Jurnal Sains Matematika dan Statistika Syntax Literate: Jurnal Ilmiah Indonesia MUST: Journal of Mathematics Education, Science and Technology BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan JTAM (Jurnal Teori dan Aplikasi Matematika) J Statistika: Jurnal Ilmiah Teori dan Aplikasi Statistika Fair Value: Jurnal Ilmiah Akuntansi dan Keuangan Jurnal Sosial Humaniora Mathvision : Jurnal Matematika Variance : Journal of Statistics and Its Applications G-Tech : Jurnal Teknologi Terapan Inferensi JAMBURA JOURNAL OF PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS Journal of Mathematics Education and Science Berkala Penelitian Hayati Indonesian Community Journal Jurnal Statistika dan Komputasi (STATKOM) Economic Development Analysis Journal Limits: Journal of Mathematics and Its Applications
Sediono, Sediono
Department Of Mathematics, Faculty Of Science And Technology, Universitas Airlangga, Jl. Dr. Ir. H. Soekarno, Mulyorejo, Kec. Mulyorejo, Kota Surabaya, Jawa Timur 60115
Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Humanities Biochemistry, Genetics & Molecular Biology Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Energy Engineering Environmental Science Immunology & microbiology Industrial & Manufacturing Engineering Law, Crime, Criminology & Criminal Justice Materials Science & Nanotechnology Mathematics Mechanical Engineering Medicine & Pharmacology Physics Public Health Social Sciences Transportation Other

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GROUPING PROVINCES IN INDONESIA BASED ON THE NUMBER OF VILLAGES AFFECTED BY ENVIROMENTAL POLLUTION WITH K-MEDOIDS, FUZZY C-MEANS, AND DBSCAN Syahzaqi, Idrus; Effendi, Magdalena; Rahmawati, Hasri; Kuswanto, Heri; Sediono, Sediono
BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Vol 18 No 2 (2024): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Application
Publisher : PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/barekengvol18iss2pp0923-0936

Abstract

Pollution can cause the environment to not function properly and ultimately harm humans and other living things. Environmental pollution is a problem that needs to be resolved because it involves the safety, health, and survival of living things. Air pollution in Pekanbaru due to a long dry season has resulted in forest fires. Then, 70% of drinking water is contaminated by fecal waste. In addition, the contamination of the land by the Chevron company resulted in residents suing the company. Until now, there has been no research that has carried out a comparison between methods for grouping villages affected by environmental pollution at the provincial level in Indonesia, so it is important to select the best method for carrying out the grouping. The limitations of this research are the use of three methods for clustering: K-Medoids, Fuzzy C-Means, and DBSCAN. The results showed that Fuzzy C-Means with five clusters have an optimal value compared to DBSCAN with an ICD rate value of 0,351. This method can be used by the government to improve the quality of villages that are clean from pollution in Indonesia, monitoring and evaluation based on the clusters formed.
PREDICTION OF NATURAL GAS PRICES ON THE NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE BASED ON A PULSE FUNCTION INTERVENTION ANALYSIS APPROACH Sediono, Sediono; Saifudin, Toha; Dewanti, Maria Setya; Azis, Aurelia Islami
BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Vol 19 No 4 (2025): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Application
Publisher : PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/barekengvol19iss4pp2647-2660

Abstract

Natural gas is a key energy commodity with significant global economic impact, and its pricing is influenced by factors like weather, energy policies, geopolitics, and supply-demand balance. The Russia-Ukraine conflict disrupted Russia’s gas exports, causing price volatility and affecting global markets, including Indonesia. This has heightened the need for accurate price prediction to support policy and investment decisions. Previous studies show ARIMA-GARCH models predict well but need pulse function intervention for sudden shocks. This study aims to apply pulse function intervention analysis, which captures the immediate effects of external events on time-series data, to improve the precision of natural gas price forecasts, aiding government and industry decision-makers. The optimal intervention model for predicting natural gas prices on the New York Mercantile Exchange is the Probabilistic ARIMA (0,2,1) with a pulse function intervention order of b=0, r=2, and s=0. Using this model with the pulse function intervention approach yields consistent fluctuation patterns over time and achieves a MAPE value of 12.2586%, indicating that the model provides good predictive accuracy.
FORECASTING THE CLOSING PRICE OF META STOCKS USING A PULSE FUNCTION INTERVENTION ANALYSIS APPROACH Mardianto, M. Fariz Fadillah; Faizun, Nurin; Nauvaldy, Muhammad; Sediono, Sediono
MEDIA STATISTIKA Vol 18, No 1 (2025): Media Statistika
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.14710/medstat.18.1.83-92

Abstract

Meta Platforms, Inc. (META), the holding company that owns Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp, plays a crucial role in advancing artificial intelligence (AI). In early 2024, CEO Mark Zuckerberg announced an ambitious initiative to develop Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), leading to a significant rise in Meta's stock during the first quarter. Consequently, an analysis using the pulse function intervention method was conducted to model and forecast future data. The study utilized weekly data consisting of 124 training and 7 testing observations, spanning from March 13, 2022, to September 15, 2024. The optimal intervention model determined is ARIMA (0,2,1), with parameters (0,0,1) and an intervention point at t = 99. Predictions for a further 8 periods resulted a MAPE of 9.682003% and an MSE of 2411.771. These findings suggest that investors should consider the influence of Zuckerberg's AGI strategy announcement on stock performance. The post-announcement surge indicates a favorable market reaction, and investors should closely follow the AGI project's development to assess META's long-term potential in the technology sector.
MODELING OF WORLD CRUDE OIL PRICE BASED ON PULSE FUNCTION INTERVENTION ANALYSIS APPROACH Aliffia, Netha; Sediono, Sediono; Suliyanto, Suliyanto; Mardianto, M. Fariz Fadillah; Amelia, Dita
MEDIA STATISTIKA Vol 16, No 2 (2023): Media Statistika
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.14710/medstat.16.2.136-147

Abstract

Crude oil has important role in global economy, including Indonesia with considerable dependence on crude oil energy consumption. The increase in crude oil prices can be triggered by several factors, one of which is geopolitical conflict that occurred due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022. As the result, world crude oil prices rose above US$100 per barrel for the first time since 2014. Therefore, this study uses pulse function intervention analysis approach to evaluate the impact of certain events in predicting data over the next few periods. The pulse function is used because the intervention occurs at the moment t only. The data used starts from June 8, 2020 to September 19, 2022 on weekly basis with the proportion of training and testing data is 90:10. The best intervention model obtained is ARIMA (3,2,0) with b=0, s=1, r=2, and intervention point at T=91. The prediction results for the next 12 periods obtained MAPE value of 2.8982% and MSE of 10.2687. This study is expected to help reduce risks due to uncertainty in world crude oil prices and in line with the goals of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) to ensure access to reliable, sustainable, and affordable energy.
Bayes Estimator of Exponential Distribution Parameters of Type II Censored Data with Linear Exponential Loss Function Method Based on Jeffrey Priors Previan, Anggara Teguh; Kurniawan, Ardi; Mardianto, M. Fariz Fadillah; Sediono, Sediono
Jambura Journal of Probability and Statistics Vol 4, No 2 (2023): Jambura Journal Of Probability and Statistics
Publisher : Department of Mathematics, Universitas Negeri Gorontalo

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.37905/jjps.v4i2.22549

Abstract

Survival analysis is often used in the application of analyzing the survival of an object such as living things or objects. This analysis is identical to data censoring which is divided into three, namely: type I, II, and III censored data. Type II censored data is data censoring done by determining the number of objects to be analyzed  from the total number of observation objects . Type II censored data is used when the analysis is intended to maximize the results of the analysis. Bayesian Linear Exponential (LINEX) loss function is one method that can be used to estimate parameters in survival analysis by minimizing the expected value of LINEX. The purpose of this study is to determine the Bayesian LINEX loss function parameter estimation on type II censored data using exponential distribution. This method uses the concept of posterior distribution and prior distribution. The prior distribution used is the Jeffrey prior distribution which has objective properties and is based on Fisher information theory The application of the parameter estimation results is carried out on the survival data of lung cancer patients obtained from the North Central Cancer Treatment Group. Based on the results of parameter estimation, it is concluded that the greater the value of the controller  (a) can produce a smaller value of parameter estimation results (θ^) . The results of this study can be used as a reference in conducting survival tests using type II censored exponential distribution data using the LINEX loss function method based on Jeffrey priors.
BAYESIAN ESTIMATION OF THE SCALE PARAMETER OF THE WEIBULL DISTRIBUTION USING THE LINEX AND ITS APPLICATION TO STROKE PATIENT DATA Rahmanita, Tentri Ryan; Kurniawan, Ardi; Ana, Elly; Sediono, Sediono; Amelia, Dita
BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Vol 20 No 1 (2026): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Application
Publisher : PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/barekengvol20iss1pp0413-0426

Abstract

Survival analysis is used to study the timing of an event, such as recovery or death, in the context of medical data. One of the diseases that many people suffer from is stroke. Based on the survey results, the number of stroke sufferers in Indonesia reached 8.3% of 1000 people in Indonesia continues to increase every year, especially among the elderly. The research conducted aims to model the estimation of the type III censored Weibull distribution parameters with the Bayesian Linear Exponential Loss Function (LINEX) method. This study uses secondary data on stroke patients in the period January-November 2024 with a sample of 62 patients at the Haji Surabaya Regional General Hospital. Weibull distribution model with Bayesian approach using Linear Exponential Loss Function (LINEX) was applied to estimate the distribution parameters and survival function. The estimation results show that the parameter α is 6.32342 with an average hospitalization time of 5.9151646 days. MSE value is 0.000270555, which indicates that the estimation model is more accurate in predicting data for the length of hospitalization for stroke patients at the Haji Surabaya Regional General Hospital. The probability value of the survival function of stroke patients who have been hospitalized on the 5th day shows a probability of 82.4% so that no further hospitalization is needed, which indicates that the patient's health condition is improving. In addition, the hazard function analysis shows that the longer a patient is hospitalized, the greater the risk of the patient not recovering.
Peningkatan Kompetensi AKM Numerasi Guru SMAN 6 Surabaya Melalui Pembelajaran Interaktif sebagai Upaya Mendukung Kualitas Pembelajaran di Kelas Elly Pusporani; Idrus Syahzaqi; Sediono Sediono; Elly Ana; Adinda Tries Melati; Ailsa Shafa Salsabila; Aufa Muhammad Yogi Riyanto; Azizah Dewi Ariyani; Bagas Maulana; Deby Victoria; Ferissa Maulida Ismi; Nurul Fajriah Deswani Sangadji; Rahmat Agung Ibrahim; Sasy Okti Karima
I-Com: Indonesian Community Journal Vol 5 No 3 (2025): I-Com: Indonesian Community Journal (September 2025)
Publisher : Fakultas Sains Dan Teknologi, Universitas Raden Rahmat Malang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.70609/i-com.v5i3.8022

Abstract

Perubahan kurikulum di Indonesia belum memberikan dampak signifikan terhadap peningkatan kompetensi siswa, sehingga pemerintah meluncurkan Asesmen Kompetensi Minimum (AKM) dengan fokus literasi dan numerasi. Di SMAN 6 Surabaya, siswa mengalami kejenuhan dalam pembelajaran numerik sehingga diperlukan upaya pendukung melalui program pengabdian masyarakat. Kegiatan ini bertujuan meningkatkan kompetensi guru dalam merancang pembelajaran numerasi kontekstual berbasis AKM. Metode pelaksanaan meliputi sosialisasi, pelatihan, pendampingan, serta publikasi dan keberlanjutan program selama satu bulan dengan peserta 40 guru. Hasil evaluasi menunjukkan peningkatan skor rata-rata dari 45 (pre-test) menjadi 64 (post-test), serta tersusunnya modul pembelajaran interaktif dan soal AKM Numerasi. Kegiatan ini terbukti mampu meningkatkan kapasitas guru dalam mengimplementasikan strategi pembelajaran numerasi. Ke depannya, guru diharapkan terus mengembangkan kreativitas penyusunan soal, sekolah membentuk community of practice sebagai wadah berkelanjutan, serta dukungan pemerintah diperlukan melalui fasilitas dan kebijakan strategis.
Nasdaq Inc. Stock Price (NDAQ) Prediction Due to Trump’s Tariff Policy Using Pulse Function Intervention Analysis Sediono, Sediono; Siagian, Kimberly Maserati; Aditya, Josephin Viona
CAUCHY: Jurnal Matematika Murni dan Aplikasi Vol 11, No 1 (2026): CAUCHY: JURNAL MATEMATIKA MURNI DAN APLIKASI
Publisher : Mathematics Department, Universitas Islam Negeri Maulana Malik Ibrahim Malang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.18860/cauchy.v11i1.37168

Abstract

Nasdaq Inc. (NDAQ) is one of the leading stock exchanges in the United States, ranking second globally after the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) based on market capitalization. As a highly dynamic and information-sensitive market, Nasdaq Inc. stock prices respond quickly to internal corporate conditions and external macroeconomic or policy changes. One notable event affecting market stability was President Donald Trump’s import tariff policy, aimed at protecting U.S. industries from foreign competition, particularly Chinese imports. The implementation of this policy triggered significant volatility, including a sharp decline in Nasdaq Inc. stock prices on March 2, 2025. This study examines the impact of this policy on Nasdaq Inc. stock movements using the ARIMA(0,2,1) model with an intervention of order b = 0, r = 1, and s = 0. The results show that all model parameters are statistically significant and produce accurate forecasts, with a MAPE of 2.19%, an RMSE of 5.98766, and an MAE of 2.05232. These findings indicate that intervention analysis effectively captures the impact of import tariff policies on stock market dynamics and provides valuable insights for investors and policymakers in anticipating market fluctuations driven by global economic policy changes.
Optimalisasi Pemasaran Digital dan Penguatan Legalitas Usaha bagi UMKM Desa Tambaksawah: Implementasi Pelatihan dan Pendampingan Berbasis Media Sosial Sediono, Sediono; Pusporani, Elly; Jannah, Sa’idah Zahrotul; Mardianto, M. Fariz Fadillah; Yoani, Alfredi; Pramesti, Helfira Lady Ari; Nabila, Ainaya Zakiyah; Karima, Sasy Okti
I-Com: Indonesian Community Journal Vol 5 No 4 (2025): I-Com: Indonesian Community Journal (Desember 2025)
Publisher : Fakultas Sains Dan Teknologi, Universitas Raden Rahmat Malang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.70609/i-com.v5i4.8282

Abstract

Kabupaten Sidoarjo merupakan kawasan industri dengan potensi besar pada sektor UMKM, termasuk Desa Tambaksawah yang telah mengembangkan berbagai produk makanan dan kerajinan tangan. Namun, pelaku UMKM masih menghadapi kendala dalam perizinan usaha, pemasaran terbatas, serta kurangnya pemahaman mengenai legalitas usaha. Kegiatan Pengabdian Masyarakat yang dilaksanakan pada Maret – September 2023 bertujuan memperluas jangkauan pemasaran melalui digital marketing dan meningkatkan pemahaman terkait legalitas usaha. Kegiatan meliputi tahap persiapan, pelatihan, pendampingan, monitoring, dan evaluasi. Sebanyak 9 UMKM berhasil membuat akun TikTok dan 30 video promosi diproduksi sebagai strategi branding digital. Selain itu, UMKM mulai beralih dari pemasaran berbasis WhatsApp menuju penggunaan media sosial yang lebih luas, sehingga meningkatkan visibilitas produk dan peluang perluasan pasar. Secara umum, kegiatan berjalan baik, ditunjukkan oleh hasil kuesioner yang mayoritas menyatakan pelaksanaan sangat baik. Meski demikian, penerapan informasi perizinan masih perlu ditingkatkan, karena baru sekitar 50% pelaku UMKM yang telah mendaftarkan usahanya.
Prediksi Harga Saham Big Four Banks di Indonesia Menggunakan Deret Fourier Multirespon Mochamad Rasyid; Sediono Sediono; M. Fariz Fadillah Mardianto; Elly Pusporani
Limits: Journal of Mathematics and Its Applications Vol. 22 No. 1 (2025): Limits: Journal of Mathematics and Its Applications Volume 22 Nomor 1 Edisi Ma
Publisher : Pusat Publikasi Ilmiah LPPM Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.12962/limits.v22i1.3379

Abstract

Co-Authors Adinda Tries Melati Aditya, Josephin Viona Ailsa Shafa Salsabila Ainaya Zakiyah Alfredi Yoani Aliffia, Netha Ameliatul 'Iffah Ana, Elly Andriani, Putu Eka Anggakusuma, Aurellia Calista Antonio Nikolas Manuel Bonar Simamora Ardi Kurniawan Ardi Kurniawan Arum Eka Ismiranda Putri Aufa Muhammad Yogi Riyanto Ayuning Dwis Cahyasari Ayuning Dwis Cahyasari Azis, Aurelia Islami Azizah Dewi Ariyani Bagas Maulana Chaerobby Fakhri Fauzaan Purwoko Christopher Andreas Citra Imama Deby Victoria Dewanti, Maria Setya Dhyana Venosia Dhyana Venosia Dita Amelia Dita Amelia Dita Amelia, Dita Dyaksa, Mega Kurnia Effendi, Magdalena Elly Ana Elly Ana Elly Pusporani Eris Tri Kurniawati Faizun, Nurin Ferissa Maulida Ismi Ghasani, Anisah Nabilah Handoko Darmokoesoemo Hani Sudarmanto Hariawan Widi Nugroho Helda Urbhani Rosa Heri Kuswanto Hermawan, Mohamad David I Kadek Pasek Kusuma Adi Putra Idrus Syahzaqi Idrus Syahzaqi Ilma Amira Rahmayanti Jannah, Sa’idah Zahrotul Karima, Sasy Okti Khoirun Niswatin Koesnadi, Grace Lucyana Kresna Oktafianto M. Fariz Fadillah Mardianto Marcel Laverda Subiyanto Marcel Laverda Subiyanto Marcelena Vicky Galena Mardianto, M. Fariz Fadillah Mas Loegito Miranda, Ariadna Sopia Mochamad Rasyid Nabila, Ainaya Zakiyah Naufal Ramadhan Al Akhwal Siregar Nauvaldy, Muhammad Netha Aliffia Noviatus Sholihah Nugroho, Hariawan Widi Nur Chamidah Nurul Fajriah Deswani Sangadji Oktavia, Sabrina Salsa Pramesti, Helfira Lady Ari Pratama, Bagas Shata Previan, Anggara Teguh Putri Fardha Asa Oktavia Hans Putri Nur Farida Rahmanita, Tentri Ryan Rahmat Agung Ibrahim Rahmawati, Hasri Renianti, Fayza Shafira Salsabylla Nada Apsariny Sasy Okti Karima Sa’idah Zahrotul Jannah Siagian, Kimberly Maserati Siti Maghfirotul Ulyah Siti Maghfrotul Ulyah Steven Soewignjo Suliyanto Suliyanto Suliyanto Suliyanto, Suliyanto Toha Saifudin Toha Saifudin Trisnadi Widyaleksono Catur Putranto Vionita, Anggi Triya Widyangga, Pressylia Aluisina Putri Wieldyanisa, Ezha Easyfa Yoani, Alfredi