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Dian Septiana
Statistika, Universitas Negeri Medan
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Journal : Hanif Journal of Information Systems

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Forecasting Rice Prices with Holt-Winter Exponential Smoothing Model Septiana, Dian
Hanif Journal of Information Systems Vol. 1 No. 2 (2024): February Edition
Publisher : Ilmu Bersama Center

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.56211/hanif.v1i2.17

Abstract

Rice, as a staple food, plays a crucial role in global food security. Accurate forecasting of rice prices is essential for policymakers, farmers, and consumers alike. This article explores the application of the Holt-Winter exponential smoothing model to predict rice prices. Holt-Winter method is chosen for its ability to capture both trend and seasonality in time series data, which are prominent features in agricultural commodity prices such as rice. The study analyzes historical price data, identifies trends, seasonality, and incorporates smoothing parameters in additive and multiplicative methods. Results indicate that additive method of Holt-Winter exponential smoothing provides a better performance. This research contributes valuable insights to the field of agricultural economics and informs strategies for managing food supply chains and market stability.
Co-Authors Adidtya Perdana, Adidtya Amalia, Sisti Nadia Andy Satria Arnita Arnita Diah Retno Wahyuningrum Eri Widyastuti Fadilah, Putri Maulidina Fanny Ramadhani Fanny Ramadhani Ibnu Rusydi Ichwanul Muslim Karo Karo Maulida Surbakti, Nurul Maulidina Fadila, Putri Melly Br Bangun Nasution, Nadrah Afiati Nurul Ain Farhana Nurul Maulida Surbakti Pahlawan, Riza Panggabean, Suvriadi Prihatin Ningsih Sagala Ramadhani, Fanny Said . Iskandar Sisti Nadia Amalia Sri Dewi