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Journal : Journal of Mathematics, Computation and Statistics (JMATHCOS)

Evaluation of Spatial Approaches of Poverty in East Java Agusta, Madania Tetiani; Sartono, Bagus; Djuraidah, Anik
Journal of Mathematics, Computations and Statistics Vol. 8 No. 1 (2025): Volume 08 Nomor 01 (April 2025)
Publisher : Jurusan Matematika FMIPA UNM

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35580/jmathcos.v8i1.7663

Abstract

Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) is the most frequently used for spatial modeling. GWR produces local model parameter estimates for each observed point. Unfortunately, GWR is known to be numerically unstable and can produce extreme coefficient estimates. Spatially Clustered Regression (SCR) and Spatially Constrained Clusterwise Regression (SCCR) are new approaches that combine cluster identification and regression estimation in one stage. This research evaluates these approaches to develop poverty alleviation in East Java with the largest number of poor people in rural areas as per March 2023 according to BPS. The response variable used is the percentage of poor families. While the explanatory variables used are the percentage of female heads of households, the percentage of non-electricity families, the average years of schooling, the percentage of home ownership, and the percentage of agricultural laborers. The results of GWR and K-Means produced three clusters in East Java, SCR produced four clusters in East Java, and SCCR produced three clusters in East Java. Based on the AIC value, the best approach is SCR with a value of 1,614. Based on its grouping, SCR is better in forming cluster with adjacent locations rather than GWR + K-Means and SCCR. The variables that significant to the percentage of poor families are the percentage of agricultural laborers, the percentage of home ownership, and the percentage of female heads of households.
ENSEMBLE METHODS IN STATISTICAL DOWNSCALING WITH GAMMA-LASSO REGRESSION FOR RAINFALL PREDICTION IN WEST JAVA Sativa, Oryza; Djuraidah, Anik; Notodiputro, Khairil Anwar
Journal of Mathematics, Computations and Statistics Vol. 8 No. 1 (2025): Volume 08 Nomor 01 (April 2025)
Publisher : Jurusan Matematika FMIPA UNM

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35580/jmathcos.v8i1.7748

Abstract

Rainfall is a crucial factor in weather and climate studies, particularly in disaster mitigation efforts such as flood and landslide prevention. West Java, with its mountainous topography and high rainfall, requires accurate rainfall predictions as a basis for decision-making. One effective approach is the ensemble method, which provides valuable insights into prediction outcomes and captures uncertainty. This study analyzes rainfall data from six stations in West Java (Cibukamanah, Krangkeng, Kawali, Katulampa, Cibeureum, and Gunung Mas) over the period 1991–2020. The results indicate that applying the ensemble method in Statistical Downscaling modeling using Gamma-Lasso Regression improves rainfall prediction accuracy compared to single models.
Co-Authors . . Aunuddin Aam Alamudi Abqorunnisa, Farah Agus M. Soleh Agus Mohamad Soleh Agusta, Madania Tetiani Aji H Wigena Aji Hamim Wigena Aji Hamin Wigena Alfa Nugraha Pradana Alfa Nugraha Pradana Alfan, Tony Alwi Aliu, Muftih Anang Kurnia Anisa, Rahma Ardiansyah, Muhlis Aris Yaman Asep Andri Fauzi ASEP SAEFUDDIN Aunuddin Aunuddin Ayu Sofia Azizah Desiwari Bagus Sartono Banan Nabila Bimandra Djaafara Cici Suhaeni Cici Suheni Dani Al Mahkya Dewi Retno Sari Saputro, Dewi Retno Erfiani Erfiani Fauziah, Ghina Fitrianto, Anwar Hanifa Izzati Hardinsyah Haryanto, Sugi Herlina Hanum Herlina Hanum, Herlina I Made Sumertajaya I Wayan Mangku Ida Mariati Hutabarat Indahwati Intan Lukiswati Ira Yulita Ismah . Ismah, Ismah Itasia Dina Sulvianti Lismayani Usman Lusi Eka Afri Mely Amelia Miranti, Ita Miranti, Ita Mohamad Arif Pramarta Muhammad Nur Aidi Novi Hidayat Pusponegoro Oryza Sativa Pigitha, Nindi Pika Silvianti Pitri, Rizka Pranata, Ismail Putri Astrini, Yufan Putri Astrini Rahardiantoro, Septian Rahma Anisa Resti Cahyati Resty Fanny Retna Nurwulan Retno Ariyanti Pratiwi Retsi Firda Maulina Ristiyanti Tarida, Arna Rita Rahmawati Rizki, Akbar Sarah Fadhlia Sari, Mutia Dwi Permata Sarimah Sarimah Septemberini, Cintia Setiawan Setiawan Sinaga, Enny Keristiana Siregar, Indra Rivaldi Siti Hasanah Siti Nur Laila Sony Sunaryo Sugi Haryanto Syam, Ummul Auliyah Tarida, Arna Ristiyanti Tasya Meilania, Gusti Titin Agustin Utami Dyah Syafitri Winda Chairani Mastuti Yoga Primanda Zulkarnain, Rizky Zul’aina, Restu Apriani _ Aunuddin