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All Journal Jurnal Sosial Ekonomi Pertanian Agrivet AGRISAINTIFIKA Jurnal Ilmu-ilmu Pertanian Jurnal Agribisnis Terpadu JURNAL AGRICA Advances in Food Science, Sustainable Agriculture and Agroindustrial Engineering (AFSSAAE) IJECS: Indonesian Journal of Empowerment and Community Services Indonesian Journal of Economics and Management Buletin Penelitian Sosial Ekonomi Pertanian Fakultas Pertanian Universitas Haluoleo Agrifo: Jurnal Agribisnis Universitas Malikussaleh
Dhika Cahyasita
Universitas Pembangunan Nasional Veteran Yogyakarta
Religion Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Humanities Biochemistry, Genetics & Molecular Biology Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Engineering Environmental Science Health Professions Immunology & microbiology Industrial & Manufacturing Engineering Materials Science & Nanotechnology Mechanical Engineering Public Health Social Sciences

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TRANSFORMATION OF INDONESIAN RICE PRODUCTION: ANALYSIS OF GROWTH TRENDS AND MAIN DETERMINANT FACTORS FOR THE PERIOD 2003–2023 Herdiana Anggrasari; Dhika Cahyasita
Agrisaintifika: Jurnal Ilmu-Ilmu Pertanian Vol. 10 No. 2 (2026): Agrisaintifika
Publisher : Universitas Veteran Bangun Nusantara

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.32585/ags.v10i2.8053

Abstract

This study analyzes the transformation and determinants of rice production in Indonesia for the period 2003–2023 using time series data and the Error Correction Model (ECM) method. Rice commodities face a dualism between government self-sufficiency efforts and structural defense, particularly land conversion that significantly reduces the national rice field area. The analysis results show that the rice production growth rate (CAGR) is very low. The positive growth that occurs is dominated by productivity increases, while the area of rice fields experiences contraction. Partially, the variable Harvested Paddy Area is proven to have the most significant and elastic influence on rice production, both in the long and short term, indicating that Harvested Area is the main determinant. The Labor variable shows a significant positive effect only in the long-term equilibrium, while UREA Fertilizer, Agricultural Credit, and Population are found to be statistically insignificant in affecting production individually. This sector also shows a rapid adjustment mechanism (negative and significant ECT) in responding to shocks. These findings confirm the crucial role of Harvested Area in production volume and provide empirical justification for land extensification policies. However, the desire for production demands an integrated strategy of extensification and intensification, supported by strict land protection regulations and improving the quality of the workforce, as a prerequisite for achieving sustainable growth. Keywords: Agricultural Development, Harvest Area, Regional Economy, Rice Production.
Co-Authors Ajri, Miftahul Anggrasari, Herdiana Ayu Kumala Sari Dinda Dewi Aisyah Hanikaf, Uliyatul Muhmiroh Kuncoro, Seto Agung Muhamad Ridwan NOVA WAHYU PRATIWI, NOVA WAHYU Perdana, Putri Trisna Wahyu Swasdiningrum Putri Ulilalbab, Azizah Ridha