Claim Missing Document
Check
Articles

Found 2 Documents
Search
Journal : EIGEN MATHEMATICS JOURNAL

Implementation of Fuzzy Logic Using The Tsukamoto Method to Forecast Gold Price in Indonesia Alviari, Irfaliani; Monika, Ines; Sarina, Sarina; Saputra, Lianda; Prayanti, Baiq Desy Aniska
Eigen Mathematics Journal Vol 8 No 1 (2025): June
Publisher : University of Mataram

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29303/emj.v8i1.251

Abstract

In the economy, gold is a commodity that has an important role. This indicates that gold is often used as an investment for investors and people involved in the business world. This research aims to determine how accurate gold price forecasting is using the Tsukamoto fuzzy method in Indonesia. Gold prices are influenced by several factors. These factors include exchange rates, interest rates, inflation, etc. Based on research results, fuzzy Tsukamoto determined the price of gold with a forecasting truth value of 99.91611654% and a MAPE value of 0.083883458%. The conclusion of this research is forecasting gold prices using the Tsukamoto fuzzy method is considered very good.
Modeling of the Spread of Malaria in the Bangka Belitung Islands Province Using the SEIR Method Halim, Nikken; Putri, Marwah Hotimah Nada; Alviari, Irfaliani; Luthfiyah, Fadillah; Septiani, Hera; Prayanti, Baiq Desy Aniska
Eigen Mathematics Journal Vol 7 No 1 (2024): June
Publisher : University of Mataram

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29303/emj.v7i1.189

Abstract

Malaria is an infectious disease caused by plasmodium through the bite of the Anopheles sp. female mosquito. (Roach, 2012). Malaria disease which hit the Bangka Belitung Islands Province in 2005 experienced a spike, reaching 36,901 people out of 981,573 residents and claimed the lives of 12 local residents. In 2011, the Bangka Belitung Islands Province was declared an endemic area for malaria. This research aims to model and interpret the spread of malaria using the SEIR model and predict the spread of malaria using parameter estimates. The steps in analyzing the SEIR model on the spread of malaria are making assumptions, forming a SEIR model, determining the equilibrium point and analyzing the stability of the equilibrium point, determining the basic reproduction number, and carrying out a simulation of the SEIR model that has been obtained. The SEIR model is classified into 4 classes, namely Susceptible (susceptible individuals), Exposed (individuals who have symptoms), Infected (infected individuals), and Recovered (recovered individuals). The data used in this research is data on the number of Susceptible, Exposed, Infected, and Recovered malaria cases in 2022 obtained from the Bangka Belitung Islands Provincial Health Service. The SEIR mathematical model is used to calculate the equilibrium point and basic reproduction number. Based on the SEIR model simulation results, it was found that the susceptible population decreased from the 0th month to the 48th month. As for the exposed population, there were 9,623 people in month 0, but in this condition the population decreased drastically per month. Furthermore, for the infected population there were 129 people in month 0, but in this condition the number of infected decreased drastically per month along with the decrease in the exposed population. For individuals who recovered, there was a increase from the 0th month to the 48th month.