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All Journal Jurnal Ilmiah Al-Mu'ashirah: Media Kajian Al-Qur'an dan Al-Hadits Multi Perspektif Open Access Indonesia Journal of Social Sciences Indonesian Community Empowerment Journal Open Access Indonesia Journal of Social Sciences Enigma in Economics IRDH International Journal of Social Sciences & Humanities (IRDH IJSCH)
Ahmad Badruddin
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Religion Humanities Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Environmental Science Languange, Linguistic, Communication & Media Law, Crime, Criminology & Criminal Justice Medicine & Pharmacology Social Sciences

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Journal : Enigma in Economics

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Navigating the Post-ETF Paradigm: An Integrative Multi-Factor Model for Projecting Bitcoin's 2025 Market Cycle Apex Abdul Malik; Ahmad Badruddin; Mary-Jane Wood; Sonia Vernanda; Gladys Putri; Ifah Shandy; Darlene Sitorus; Delia Tamim
Enigma in Economics Vol. 3 No. 1 (2025): Enigma in Economics
Publisher : Enigma Institute

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.61996/economy.v3i1.91

Abstract

Bitcoin’s market structure underwent a fundamental and irreversible transformation following the 2024 regulatory approval and launch of spot Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) in the United States. This event catalyzed an unprecedented wave of institutional adoption, signaling the asset's maturation from a fringe, retail-driven speculative vehicle into an emergent institutional-grade macro-asset. This study moves beyond traditional cyclical models, which are predicated on historical, pre-institutional market dynamics, to analyze Bitcoin's valuation within this profoundly evolved landscape. The primary objective is to project the potential price apex for Bitcoin in the 2024-2025 market cycle by developing and applying a transparent, replicable, and comprehensive multi-factor analytical framework. A multi-factorial, longitudinal analysis was conducted using a combination of publicly available data and simulated datasets from Q1 2022 to Q2 2025. The model is built upon a structured, semi-quantitative framework designed to synthesize three core analytical pillars: (1) Macroeconomic Environment, quantitatively assessing the impact of Federal Reserve interest rate policy, US Dollar Index (DXY) dynamics, and inflation trends through correlation analysis and sensitivity modeling. (2) On-Chain Intelligence, utilizing a suite of metrics from primary sources like Glassnode, including MVRV Z-Score, LTH-SOPR, and Illiquid Supply growth, while critically evaluating the continued validity of their historical thresholds. (3) Market & Flow Dynamics, which integrates technical analysis with a rigorous, quantitative assessment of spot ETF demand versus daily new supply, moving beyond subjective interpretations of price charts. A transparent weighting rubric was developed to integrate the findings from each pillar, mitigating subjective bias and ensuring the analytical synthesis is replicable. The synthesis of the model's components revealed a powerful confluence of bullish factors projected to intensify through late 2024 and into 2025. The Macroeconomic pillar scored moderately positive, forecasting a probable shift to monetary easing. The On-Chain pillar registered a strongly positive score, driven by a profound and persistent supply shock, evidenced by record illiquid supply growth and sustained exchange outflows, indicating strong holder conviction. The Market & Flow Dynamics pillar also scored strongly positive, with institutional demand via ETFs consistently outstripping newly mined supply by a significant multiple. The model's base-case scenario, derived from the weighted synthesis of these pillars, projects a Bitcoin price apex in the range of $150,000 to $200,000, with the most probable timing for this peak occurring between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025. In conclusion, the findings indicate that the 2024-2025 Bitcoin market cycle is fundamentally distinct from its predecessors, primarily driven by a structural, institutional-led demand shock that interacts with, and is amplified by, traditional macroeconomic tailwinds and established cyclical patterns. The projected price apex reflects a market structure that has matured, with future cycles likely to be more influenced by global liquidity conditions than the halving event alone. This research provides a robust, transparent, and theoretically grounded framework for valuing Bitcoin in its new role within the global financial system and offers a template for future analysis of digital assets as they integrate with traditional finance.
Systemic Contagion or Digital Diversifier? A Dynamic Quantification of the Cryptocurrency Market's Evolving Role in Global Financial Risk Transmission Abdul Malik; Gayatri Putri; Hesti Putri; Ahmad Badruddin
Enigma in Economics Vol. 3 No. 2 (2025): Enigma in Economics
Publisher : Enigma Institute

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.61996/economy.v3i2.99

Abstract

The proliferation of crypto-assets has raised critical questions about their impact on global financial stability. This study rigorously investigates the structural evolution of the cryptocurrency market's role within the global financial system, testing the hypothesis that it has transitioned from a peripheral, shock-absorbing entity into a systemically significant transmitter of financial risk. We employ a Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregression (TVP-VAR) model on daily data from January 1, 2017, to December 31, 2024, examining the dynamic connectedness between a bespoke, rebalanced cryptocurrency index (CRIX20) and key global financial indicators (S&P 500, MSCI World, VIX, DXY). The econometric framework utilizes a Bayesian estimation approach with standard priors, a 200-day rolling window, and a 10-day forecast horizon for Generalized Forecast Error Variance Decompositions (GFEVD). Methodological robustness is confirmed through structural break tests and sensitivity analysis of the forecast horizon. Our findings reveal a profound structural transformation. Prior to mid-2020, the cryptocurrency market was a consistent net receiver of financial spillovers. A structural break, formally identified in the third quarter of 2020, marks a definitive regime shift. Post-break, the crypto market has become a significant and persistent net transmitter of risk to the traditional financial system. The total connectedness index for the entire system shows a marked secular increase, with the crypto market's contribution to systemic risk growing substantially. Gross spillover analysis confirms this shift is driven by a dramatic increase in risk transmission from the crypto market to other assets. In conclusion, the cryptocurrency market can no longer be considered an isolated ecosystem; it is now an integral and potentially destabilizing component of the global financial architecture. The era of crypto-assets as reliable diversifiers has waned, replaced by a new reality where shocks originating within this market pose a credible threat to broader financial stability. These findings present urgent challenges for regulatory oversight, systemic risk monitoring, and portfolio management.
Co-Authors Abdul Malik Arifin, Mohamad Zaenal Aylin Yermekova Benyamin Wongso Darlene Sitorus Delia Tamim Emir Abdullah Gayatri Putri Gladys Putri Habiburrahman Said Henny Kesuma Hesti Putri Hikam, Ahmad Bahrul Ifah Shandy Mansurudin Mary-Jane Wood Muhammad Amin Omar Alieva Sonia Vernanda Winata Putri