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Cakrawala Repositori Imwi
ISSN : 26208490     EISSN : 26208814     DOI : https://doi.org/10.52851/cakrawala.
Core Subject : Economy,
Jurnal Cakrawala Repositori IMWI focuses on publishing original research articles, reviewing articles from contributors, and current issues relating to Economics, Business and Management. The main purpose of the journal is to provide a platform for scholars, academics, and researchers to share contemporary thinking in the field. The work should not be published or submitted for publication elsewhere. The official language of the manuscript that will be published in Jurnal Cakrawala Repositori IMWI is Indonesian. For information and registration, contact cakrawala@imwi.ac.id. Jurnal Cakrawala Repositori IMWI is a peer-reviewed journal which is published six times a year. This journal is an open-access that publishes research outcomes with significant contributions to the understanding and improvement of management science. The review process in this journal employs a double-blind peer-review, which means that both the reviewer and author identities are concealed from the reviewers, and vice versa.
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Search results for , issue "73-84" : 1 Documents clear
Cash Flow Forecasting for Construction Projects using the Markov Chain Model (A Case Study of Construction Company PT X) Lala Amalia; Embun Suryani; Lalu Hamdani Husnan; Siti Aisyah Hidayati; I Nyoman Nugraha
Cakrawala Repositori IMWI 73-84
Publisher : Institut Manajemen Wiyata Indonesia & Asosiasi Peneliti Manajemen Indonesia

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Abstract

This study aims to analyze the cash flow dynamics of PT X’s construction project using the Markov Chain Model. The data used consist of monthly net cash flows for the period from June 2020 to December 2025, which are classified into four states: Severe Deficit, Moderate Deficit, Stable, and High Surplus. The analysis was conducted using a transition probability matrix, steady-state distribution, multi-period probability prediction, and Mean First Passage Time (MFPT). The results of the study show that PT X’s cash flow condition is volatile and is not strongly dominated by any particular state. The steady-state distribution shows that the company’s long-term probability of being in the deficit group, consisting of Severe Deficit and Moderate Deficit, reaches 49.87%, while the probability of being in the non-deficit group, consisting of Stable and High Surplus, reaches 50.12%. These findings indicate that deficit risk and non-deficit opportunities are relatively balanced. Therefore, PT X needs to manage liquidity, cash reserves, receivables, project terms, and working capital in a more adaptive and probability-based manner.

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