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PREDIKSI : Jurnal Administrasi dan Kebijakan
Published by Universitas 17 Agustus Samarinda
ISSN : 16932439     EISSN : 28288440     DOI : 10.31293/PD
Core Subject : Economy, Humanities, Social,
Humanities Economics, Econometrics & Finance Social Sciences
Prediksi: Jurnal Administrasi dan Kebijakan is a national and open access journal published by the Faculty of Social and Political Sciences of the University of August 17, 1945 Samarinda. Prediction focuses on the development of the study of the humanities and social sciences. The purpose of our journal is to promote a principled approach to research in the field of social sciences and humanities specifically focusing on Political Science and State Administration and Policy Sciences. Prediksi have a full commitment to the authenticity of published articles and papers. Any authority that submits its articles to Prediksi for publication must be able to prove that the submitted work is an original contribution and has never been published in part or in whole in any other print media. To achieve this commitment, Prediction provides an objective and fair peer review of every article submitted by blind reviewers from other universities.
Arjuna Subject : Ilmu Sosial - Administrasi Publik
Articles 213 Documents
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Budaya dan Pembangunan: Analisis Komunikasi Ritual Adat Erau di Kutai Kartanegara Hairunnisa, Hairunnisa; Hanief, Lalita; Firliandoko, Robby; Rahmawati, Yulia; Wahyuningrum, Marliana
Prediksi : Jurnal Administrasi dan Kebijakan Vol 25, No 1 (2026)
Publisher : Universitas 17 Agustus 1945 Samarinda

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31293/pd.v25i1.9438

Abstract

This research explores the role of ritual communication in the preservation of cultural identity and its relevance to sustainable development through the Erau Tradition in Kutai Kartanegara, East Kalimantan. Ritual communication as a form of symbolic communication emphasizes participation, repetition, and transmission of shared meanings within the community, not just linear transmission of information. Erau Tradition, a traditional ceremony originating from the Kutai Sultanate, exemplifies ritual communication through a series of ceremonies, dances, music, and symbolic actions. This research examines how these rituals help strengthen social cohesion, preserve cultural values, and maintain a spiritual connection with nature, with a focus on the messages conveyed regarding environmental conservation and community solidarity. This research highlights that Erau Tradition is not just a cultural celebration, but also a powerful tool for sustainable development. By integrating cultural heritage, social unity, economic empowerment and environmental awareness, the ritual contributes to a holistic approach to development. In addition, the Erau festival is a major attraction for cultural tourism that supports local economic growth while promoting cultural sustainability. This research argues that ritual communication in Erau Tradition can play a significant role in fostering inclusive and sustainable development, strengthening local identity, and increasing environmental awarenessPenelitian ini mengeksplorasi peran komunikasi ritual dalam pelestarian identitas budaya dan relevansinya terhadap pembangunan berkelanjutan melalui Adat Erau di Kutai Kartanegara, Kalimantan Timur. Komunikasi ritual sebagai bentuk komunikasi simbolik menekankan partisipasi, pengulangan, dan transmisi makna bersama dalam komunitas, bukan hanya transmisi informasi secara linear. Adat Erau, sebuah upacara tradisional yang berasal dari Kesultanan Kutai, menjadi contoh komunikasi ritual melalui rangkaian upacara, tarian, musik, dan tindakan simbolik. Penelitian ini mengkaji bagaimana ritual-ritual ini membantu memperkuat kohesi sosial, melestarikan nilai-nilai budaya, dan menjaga hubungan spiritual dengan alam, dengan fokus pada pesan-pesan yang disampaikan terkait pelestarian lingkungan dan solidaritas komunitas. Penelitian ini menyoroti Adat Erau bukan hanya perayaan budaya saja, tetapi juga merupakan alat yang kuat untuk pembangunan berkelanjutan. Dengan mengintegrasikan warisan budaya, kesatuan sosial, pemberdayaan ekonomi, dan kesadaran lingkungan, ritual ini memberikan kontribusi pada pendekatan pembangunan yang holistik. Selain itu, festival Erau menjadi daya tarik utama pariwisata budaya yang mendukung pertumbuhan ekonomi lokal sekaligus mempromosikan keberlanjutan budaya. Penelitian ini berargumen bahwa komunikasi ritual dalam Adat Erau dapat memainkan peran signifikan dalam mendorong pembangunan yang inklusif dan berkelanjutan, memperkuat identitas lokal, dan meningkatkan kesadaran lingkungan.
Transformasi Kebijakan Bantuan Sosial Menuju Peningkatan Kesejahteraan Masyarakat Miskin melalui Integrasi Perspektif Maqasid al-Syariah Faiqoh, Fadhila; Prasetyowati, Riris Aishah; Sujoko, Imam
Prediksi : Jurnal Administrasi dan Kebijakan Vol 25, No 1 (2026)
Publisher : Universitas 17 Agustus 1945 Samarinda

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31293/pd.v25i1.9429

Abstract

The Non-Cash Food Assistance (BPNT) and Prosperous Rice (Rastra) programs are designed as policy instruments to improve the welfare of the poor, but their effectiveness requires an in-depth evaluation from the perspective of sharia maqashid. Through a quantitative approach involving 100 respondents using a systematic random sampling technique in Tanjung Harapan Village, Kotabumi, North Lampung, this study reveals the dynamics of the aid distribution mechanism and its impact on community welfare. Data was collected through interviews and questionnaires, then analyzed using SmartPLS to evaluate measurement and structural models. The findings identified serious problems in the form of uneven distribution, inaccuracy of recipient targets, and administrative weaknesses that hinder the effectiveness of the program. However, the integration of the perspective of sharia maqashid showed a very significant positive influence with a path coefficient of 0.817 between political policy and sharia maqashid, and 0.822 between sharia maqashid and welfare. The implementation of BPNT and Rastra has been proven to contribute to the protection of life, heredity, intellect, and religious aspects, although the aspect of asset protection still needs improvement. The findings confirm that social assistance policies that are in line with the principles of sharia maqashid have a strong and sustainable impact, so comprehensive improvements are needed to the data collection system, transparency of distribution, and integration with economic empowerment programs.
Political Will Pemerintah Daerah Kota Pekanbaru dalam Pencegahan dan Percepatan Penurunan Stunting Tahun 2022- 2023 Andini, Firly; Pane, Rico Purnawandi
Prediksi : Jurnal Administrasi dan Kebijakan Vol 25, No 1 (2026)
Publisher : Universitas 17 Agustus 1945 Samarinda

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31293/pd.v25i1.8656

Abstract

Kesehatan merupakan hak dasar dan indikator utama dalam pembangunan manusia. Salah satu isu strategis yang dihadapi Indonesia adalah stunting, yang berdampak jangka panjang pada pertumbuhan dan perkembangan anak. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis political will Pemerintah daerah Kota Pekanbaru dalam pencegahan dan percepatan penurunan stunting tahun 2022–2023. Metode penelitian yang digunakan adalah kualitatif deskriptif, dengan pengumpulan data melalui wawancara dan dokumentasi. Hasil penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa political will Pemerintah Daerah Kota Pekanbaru dalam pencegahan dan percepatan penurunan stunting pada tahun 2022–2023 belum optimal. Meskipun terdapat inisiatif melalui program Bapak Asuh Anak Stunting (BAAS), pelaksanaannya masih menghadapi kendala dalam distribusi bantuan dan jangkauan yang tidak merata. Pengambil kebijakan juga masih memiliki pemahaman yang terbatas terhadap beberapa regulasi penting, serta menghadapi tantangan dalam membangun sinergi antar pelaksana kebijakan stunting dan keterlibatan sektor swasta masih minim, sinergitas antarpihak belum terbangun dengan baik, tidak tersedia dokumen strategi komunikasi,anggaran masih terhambat, serta distribusi sumber daya manusia belum merata. Selain itu, kesinambungan usaha juga masih kurang karena upaya yang dilakukan cenderung bersifat jangka pendek. Penelitian ini merekomendasikan peningkatan alokasi anggaran, penguatan sinergi lintas sektor, dan perumusan kebijakan jangka panjang untuk memastikan keberlanjutan upaya penanganan stunting di Kota Pekanbaru.
Digitalisasi Layanan Paspor dan Tantangannya dalam Tata Kelola Publik di Indonesia Pranoto, Aric; Ardi, Imma Yedida; Mulyawan, Budy
Prediksi : Jurnal Administrasi dan Kebijakan Vol 25, No 1 (2026)
Publisher : Universitas 17 Agustus 1945 Samarinda

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31293/pd.v25i1.8680

Abstract

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengevaluasi implementasi digitalisasi layanan paspor di Indonesia melalui aplikasi M-Paspor sebagai bagian dari transformasi layanan publik. Metode yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah Systematic Review and Evaluation (SRE), yang terdiri dari tiga tahapan utama: identifikasi, analisis, dan evaluasi. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa M-Paspor memberikan kemudahan dalam proses pengajuan paspor secara daring, mencakup pendaftaran, pengunggahan dokumen, pemilihan jadwal, dan pembayaran. Namun, beberapa kendala teknis seperti eror aplikasi, lambatnya sistem, dan keterlambatan notifikasi masih menghambat efektivitas pelayanan. Selain itu, keterbatasan akses internet di wilayah terpencil serta rendahnya literasi digital menjadi tantangan utama dalam pemerataan layanan. Kurangnya koordinasi antara pusat dan daerah juga menyebabkan ketidakkonsistenan dalam implementasi kebijakan. Meskipun demikian, layanan paspor digital telah memberikan kontribusi ekonomi yang signifikan, dengan capaian PNBP sebesar lebih dari Rp 2,49 triliun pada tahun 2024. Oleh karena itu, diperlukan evaluasi dan inovasi berkelanjutan, penguatan infrastruktur, serta peningkatan kapasitas kelembagaan guna mewujudkan layanan publik yang lebih inklusif, efisien, dan berdaya saing di era digital.
Collaborative Governance in Handling Neglected Children in Sukabumi City, 2022-2024 Annisa Fauziah; M Rijal Amirulloh; Yana Fajar F.Y Basori
Prediksi : Jurnal Administrasi dan Kebijakan Vol 25, No 2 (2026)
Publisher : Universitas 17 Agustus 1945 Samarinda

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31293/pd.v25i2.9579

Abstract

This study analyzes the collaborative governance process in handling neglected children in Sukabumi City from 2022 to 2024. The number of neglected children recorded during this period shows a concerning trend, with an average of only about 22% successfully handled. Using a descriptive qualitative method based on Ansell and Gash's (2007) collaborative governance model which consists of four dimensions: starting conditions, institutional design, facilitative leadership, and collaborative process data were collected through in-depth interviews with five key informant groups: the Department of Social Affairs (Dinas Sosial), Satpol PP (Civil Service Police Unit), DP2KBP3A, LKSA Ummi Kulsum, and IPSM (Community Social Workers Association). The findings indicate that the collaborative governance process has not functioned effectively. The four dimensions mutually reinforce weaknesses in a recurring cycle: unequal starting conditions, suboptimal facilitative leadership, inadequate institutional design, and a reactive collaborative process. The main constraints include the absence of an official decree establishing an interagency integrated team, the lack of a regular coordination forum, differing incentives among stakeholders, and a complaint-based service system. This study recommends the immediate issuance of an official decree establishing an interagency integrated team and the formation of a regular coordination forum to strengthen multi-stakeholder collaboration.
Performance Accountability of the Civil Service Police Unit in Regulating Billboards in Sukabumi City Intan Quraeni Nursomantri; Yana Fajar FY Basori; Dine Meigawati
Prediksi : Jurnal Administrasi dan Kebijakan Vol 25, No 2 (2026)
Publisher : Universitas 17 Agustus 1945 Samarinda

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31293/pd.v25i2.9578

Abstract

The proliferation of unlicensed billboards and their placement in violation of regulations in the city of Sukabumi indicates a gap between policy and its implementation on the ground. This study aims to analyze the performance accountability of the Sukabumi City Civil Service Police Unit in regulating advertisements using Koppell’s (2005) theory of accountability, which includes transparency, liability, control, responsibility, and responsiveness. This study employs a descriptive qualitative approach with data collection techniques including in-depth interviews, observation, and document analysis, validated through triangulation of sources and methods. The results indicate that the performance accountability of the Civil Service Police Unit is in place, but there are still several aspects that need improvement to ensure more optimal implementation. In the transparency dimension, information dissemination has been supported by the use of digital communication and reporting systems, although the disclosure of information to the public still needs to be expanded. In the liability dimension, material accountability mechanisms have functioned well but are not yet accompanied by an effective formal system of rewards and sanctions. The controllability dimension is still hampered by the lack of measurable performance targets and inter-agency data integration. In the responsibility dimension, enforcement activities have been supported by compliance with applicable procedures and regulations. Meanwhile, the responsiveness dimension remains limited due to the public’s low utilization of complaint channels. Strengthening the performance accountability of the Civil Service Police Unit can be achieved by establishing measurable enforcement performance targets, developing a formal system of rewards and sanctions for officers, expanding public awareness of complaint channels and extending patrol coverage to the entire city; and strengthening inter-agency data integration, accompanied by stricter administrative sanctions for repeat offenders.
Institutional Governance and Investment Licensing Reform in Indonesia’s Free Trade Zones: A Case Study of Tanjungpinang Ade Masniary; Rumzi Samin; Edy Akhyari
Prediksi : Jurnal Administrasi dan Kebijakan Vol 25, No 2 (2026)
Publisher : Universitas 17 Agustus 1945 Samarinda

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31293/pd.v25i2.9530

Abstract

The Free Trade Zone (FTZ) policy was established to stimulate regional economic growth through investment promotion, trade facilitation, fiscal incentives, and simplified licensing procedures. Despite possessing strategic geographical advantages, the implementation of the FTZ policy in Tanjungpinang has not yet achieved its intended objectives. This study examines institutional fragmentation in investment licensing governance within the Tanjungpinang FTZ and analyzes its implications for investment service effectiveness. A qualitative case study approach was employed, utilizing in-depth interviews, document analysis, and literature review. Data were analyzed using the interactive model of Miles, Huberman, and Saldaña, consisting of data reduction, data display, and conclusion drawing. The findings reveal that overlapping authority among the Tanjungpinang FTZ Management Agency, local government institutions, and national licensing authorities has created institutional fragmentation. Weak inter-agency coordination, inconsistent implementation of the Online Single Submission (OSS) system, and regulatory ambiguities contribute to procedural complexity and uncertainty for investors. These challenges have reduced administrative efficiency, delayed investment realization, and weakened the competitiveness of the Tanjungpinang FTZ compared to other special economic zones. The study emphasizes the need for regulatory harmonization, clearer institutional authority, strengthened coordination mechanisms, and integrated licensing services to improve investment governance and enhance regional competitiveness.
Implementasi Pengawasan Sistem Pengendalian Internal Pemerintah (SPIP) Oleh Inspektorat Kabupaten Sukabumi Salman Nurhadi Iswandi; Dine Meigawati; Andi Mulyadi
Prediksi : Jurnal Administrasi dan Kebijakan Vol 25, No 2 (2026)
Publisher : Universitas 17 Agustus 1945 Samarinda

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31293/pd.v25i2.9550

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the implementation of the Government Internal Control System (SPIP) supervision by the Inspectorate of Sukabumi Regency and identify the factors influencing its implementation. The study was motivated by the persistence of irregularities in regional financial and asset management, the limited number of auditors, and the SPIP maturity level of Sukabumi Regency, which remains at Level 3. A descriptive qualitative method was employed, with data collected through observation, interviews, and documentation. Data were analyzed using the Miles and Huberman model, while the policy implementation analysis was based on the framework of Van Meter and Van Horn, which includes policy standards and objectives, resources, characteristics of implementing agencies, interorganizational communication, environmental conditions, and implementers’ disposition. The findings indicate that SPIP supervision has been implemented in accordance with existing regulations; however, it has not yet been fully optimized due to limited human resources, extensive supervisory coverage, and a high auditor workload. Therefore, strengthening APIP capacity, improving coordination, and increasing resource support are necessary to enhance supervisory effectiveness and promote accountable and transparent governance.Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis implementasi pengawasan Sistem Pengendalian Intern Pemerintah (SPIP) oleh Inspektorat Kabupaten Sukabumi serta mengidentifikasi faktor-faktor yang memengaruhi pelaksanaannya. Latar belakang penelitian ini didasarkan pada masih ditemukannya penyimpangan dalam pengelolaan keuangan dan aset daerah, keterbatasan jumlah auditor, serta capaian maturitas SPIP Kabupaten Sukabumi yang masih berada pada Level 3. Penelitian menggunakan metode deskriptif kualitatif dengan teknik pengumpulan data melalui observasi, wawancara, dan dokumentasi. Analisis data dilakukan menggunakan model Miles dan Huberman, sedangkan analisis implementasi kebijakan mengacu pada teori Van Meter dan Van Horn yang meliputi standar dan tujuan kebijakan, sumber daya, karakteristik organisasi pelaksana, komunikasi antarorganisasi, kondisi lingkungan, serta disposisi pelaksana. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa pengawasan SPIP telah dilaksanakan sesuai ketentuan yang berlaku, namun belum optimal karena keterbatasan sumber daya manusia, luasnya objek pengawasan, dan tingginya beban kerja auditor. Diperlukan peningkatan kapasitas APIP, penguatan koordinasi, dan dukungan sumber daya untuk meningkatkan efektivitas pengawasan serta mewujudkan tata kelola pemerintahan yang akuntabel dan transparan.
Capacity Building of the Sukabumi City Health Department in Efforts to Prevent Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever (DHF) Sheni Zulfani; Yana Fajar FY Basori; M Rijal Amirulloh
Prediksi : Jurnal Administrasi dan Kebijakan Vol 25, No 2 (2026)
Publisher : Universitas 17 Agustus 1945 Samarinda

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31293/pd.v25i2.9576

Abstract

Kasus Demam Berdarah Dengue (DBD) di Kota Sukabumi terus berfluktuasi dan cenderung meningkat, dengan jumlah tertinggi mencapai 1.631 kasus pada tahun 2024, jauh melebihi target nasional. Studi ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis peningkatan kapasitas Dinas Kesehatan Kota Sukabumi dalam upaya pencegahan DBD. Dengan menggunakan metode deskriptif kualitatif dengan teknik pengumpulan data, observasi, wawancara mendalam, dan dokumentasi, penelitian ini menganalisis data melalui kondensasi, presentasi, dan verifikasi. Teori peningkatan kapasitas Grindle (1997) digunakan sebagai analisis kerangka melalui tiga dimensi: pengembangan sumber daya manusia, penguatan organisasi, dan reformasi kelembagaan. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa peningkatan kapasitas Dinas Kesehatan Kota Sukabumi belum optimal. Pada dimensi SDM, setiap puskesmas hanya memiliki satu petugas DBD P2 dan satu kader pemantauan jentik per RW, dengan pelatihan entomologi terbatas pada 2-3 orang. Dimensi penguatan organisasi penanganan ketergantungan pada logistik RDT Demam berdarah tingkat provinsi dan fasilitas pemeriksaan yang terbatas. Dimensi reformasi kelembagaan menunjukkan bahwa koordinasi lintas sektor masih bersifat internal dan informal, sementara partisipasi masyarakat dalam pemberantasan sarang nyamuk bersifat reaktif. Kesimpulannya, peningkatan kapasitas Dinas Kesehatan Kota Sukabumi masih terbatas dan memerlukan penguatan secara simultan pada dimensi ketiga tersebut, terutama penambahan SDM, kemandirian logistik, dan penguatan koordinasi lintas sektor.
Optimalisasi Fungsi Lapang Merdeka Sebagai Public Sport Center Dalam Mewujudkan Kota Sehat Akbar Devriansyah; Dian Purwanti; Andi Mulyadi
Prediksi : Jurnal Administrasi dan Kebijakan Vol 25, No 2 (2026)
Publisher : Universitas 17 Agustus 1945 Samarinda

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31293/pd.v25i2.9574

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the optimization of Lapang Merdeka's function as a public sport center in Sukabumi City through the implementation of local government policies. The research was motivated by the deviation of the area's primary function due to commercial activities, inconsistencies in policy implementation, and the declining comfort of the community in utilizing Lapang Merdeka as a public sports facility. This study employed a qualitative descriptive approach. Data were collected through observation, interviews, and documentation and analyzed using George C. Edward III’s policy implementation model, consisting of communication, resources, disposition, and bureaucratic structure. The findings indicate that policy implementation has been carried out relatively well through socialization programs, supervision, sports development activities, and inter-agency coordination. However, the optimization of Lapang Merdeka has not been fully achieved due to the persistence of non-sport activities, budget limitations, inadequate supervision, and the need for stronger institutional coordination. Therefore, enhancing supervision, strengthening coordination among government agencies, and increasing public awareness are essential to ensure the sustainable and optimal functioning of Lapang Merdeka as a public sport center.Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis optimalisasi fungsi Lapang Merdeka sebagai public sport center di Kota Sukabumi melalui implementasi kebijakan pemerintah daerah. Permasalahan penelitian dilatarbelakangi oleh terjadinya penyimpangan fungsi kawasan akibat aktivitas perdagangan, ketidaksesuaian pelaksanaan kebijakan, serta berkurangnya kenyamanan masyarakat dalam memanfaatkan Lapang Merdeka sebagai ruang olahraga publik. Penelitian menggunakan metode kualitatif dengan pendekatan deskriptif. Data dikumpulkan melalui observasi, wawancara, dan dokumentasi, kemudian dianalisis menggunakan model implementasi kebijakan George C. Edward III yang meliputi komunikasi, sumber daya, disposisi, dan struktur birokrasi. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa implementasi kebijakan telah berjalan cukup baik melalui sosialisasi, pengawasan, pembinaan olahraga, dan koordinasi antarinstansi. Namun, optimalisasi fungsi Lapang Merdeka belum sepenuhnya tercapai karena masih ditemukan aktivitas non-olahraga, keterbatasan anggaran, pengawasan yang belum optimal, serta koordinasi yang perlu diperkuat. Oleh karena itu, diperlukan peningkatan pengawasan, penguatan koordinasi antarperangkat daerah, dan peningkatan kesadaran masyarakat agar fungsi Lapang Merdeka sebagai public sport center dapat terwujud secara optimal dan berkelanjutan.

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