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Prosiding Seminar Nasional Official Statistics
Published by Politeknik Statistika STIS
ISSN : 27721970     EISSN : 27721970     DOI : https://doi.org/10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2022i1
Core Subject : Economy, Humanities, Science, Social,
Humanities Computer Science & IT Economics, Econometrics & Finance Social Sciences
prosiding seminar ini bertujuan untuk menghasilkan berbagai pemikiran solutif, inovatif, dan adaptif terkait isu, strategi, dan metode yang memanfaatkan official statistics
Arjuna Subject : Matematika - Statistik dan Probabilitas
Articles 662 Documents
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Pengelompokan Kabupaten/Kota Di Jawa Tengah Menurut Indeks Kerawanan Sosial Terhadap Demam Berdarah Dengue Muzakky, A. Naufal; Budiarti, Winih
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2024 No 1 (2024): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2024
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2024i1.2226

Abstract

The high mortality rate of DHF in Central Java requires the government to reduce the burden of DHF disease by reducing community vulnerability or social vulnerability to DHF. Social vulnerability is a multidimensional concept that can be measured using a composite index. This index is useful for determining policy priority areas and dimensions. Therefore, the objectives of this study were to develop a Social Vulnerability Index to DHF (IKS DBD) using factor analysis, group districts/cities based on IKS DBD, and identify policy priority dimensions. The results showed that there are four factors that compose the IKS DBD, namely socioeconomic and urban, health services, vulnerable populations, and housing. The grouping of districts/cities resulted in five categories of vulnerability, namely very high, high, medium, low, and very low vulnerability. From the resulting radar plot, each group has different policy priority dimensions that can help the government in determining policies with significant impact.
Peramalan Migrasi Masuk di Indonesia Menggunakan Data Google Trend Fauzan, Fardhi Dzakwan; Wijayanto, Arie Wahyu
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2024 No 1 (2024): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2024
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2024i1.2237

Abstract

Migration plays an important role that needs to be considered in the national development strategy. The rapid rate of migration require attention such as demand for urban infrastructure, housing, and public services. Google Trend is one of the Big Data sources that can be used to see the possibility of migration through certain keyword searches. This study focuses on using of Google Trend data as additional data to improve forecasting accuracy. The forecasting is carried out using two time series methods, Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) and Vector Autoregression (VAR) with or without Google Trend variables to see model performance. As a result, using Google Trend data helps improve model performance to predict the possibility of migration in the short and long term, as indicated by a decrease in statistical measures such as RMSE, MSE, and MAE when the model is used to predict short and long-term inbound migration.
Pemodelan Spasial RTH dan Faktor Ekologi Sosial Ekonomi Terhadap Kriminalitas Kota Medan Tahun 2022 Fitriyyah, Nur Retno; Pramana, Setia
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2024 No 1 (2024): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2024
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2024i1.2240

Abstract

Urban crime is an ecological problem due to the interaction of various ecological, social and economic factors. Factors that are thought to trigger crime rates include the availability of green open space (RTH), extreme poverty, population density, light at night, relative wealth, and the number of security services and worship facilities. The green open space identification process utilizes Sentinel-2 Multi Spectral Instrument Level 2A by measuring the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI). Spatial regression analysis with Queen Contiguity weighting was used to see the influence of these factors on crime rates between regions. The Ordinary Least Squares model is better than spatial regression because the data does not show spatial autocorrelation between regions, so Ordinary Least Squares can be used as a simpler model. The number of extreme poor people significantly affects the crime rate in Medan City. Policy implications include increased night light in vulnerable areas, access to green spaces, poverty alleviation, and improved security services to create a safer urban environment.
Peningkatan Kapabilitas Sistem Tindak Lanjut Rekomendasi BPK Inspektorat Utama BPS RI Melalui Pembangunan Sistem Informasi Pradana, Novanni Indi; Maghfiroh, Lutfi Rahmatuti
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2024 No 1 (2024): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2024
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2024i1.2241

Abstract

Statistics Indonesia (BPS) prepares financial reports for budget accountability and submits them to the Audit Board of Indonesia (BPK) for review. The BPK audit results are presented in the audit report (LHP), and the Main Inspectorate directs the implementation of follow-up actions on BPK recommendations. Currently, a dashboard system monitors the progress and results of these follow-ups, but it does not cover the entire process, has limited access, and lacks centralized documentation storage. To address these issues, a new information system is needed. The proposed system was developed using the iterative method and evaluated with black box testing and the Computer System Usability Questionnaire (CSUQ). The black box testing results indicate that the system functions as expected. Additionally, the CSUQ evaluation shows high user satisfaction with the system's usability, information quality, and interface.
Kajian Peningkatan Implementasi Sistem Akuntabilitas Kinerja Instansi Pemerintah Melalui Pembangunan Aplikasi Evaluasi Akuntabilitas Kinerja Instansi Pemerintah Abdi Pradana, Achmad Arfiandys; Maghfiroh, Lutfi Rahmatuti
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2024 No 1 (2024): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2024
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2024i1.2243

Abstract

Inspektorat Utama Statistic Indonesia (BPS) is a division that responsible for carrying out evaluations of Accountability Performance for Government Agency (AKIP). Currently the system used in the evaluation still utilizes several third party applications which have limitations. Apart from that, in the Evaluation Result Report (LHE) BPS Republic of Indonesia there is a recommendation that BPS have an independent application. Therefore, Inspektorat Utama needs to conduct a study on improving the implementation of the performance accountability system for government agencies through developing an application that can meet these needs. Application development begins with collecting data for needs analysis which is followed by application design, design implementation as well as evaluation and testing. The application was built using the System Development Life Cycle method, iterative waterfall model. The applications that have been built are evaluated using the Computer System Usability Questionnaire and tested using black box testing. The application testing results show that all functions work properly, while the evaluation results show that users are very satisfied with the performance and appearance of the application.
Pengaruh Status Putus Sekolah dan Sosio-Ekologis Terhadap Ketahanan Remaja Perempuan dari Pernikahan Dini di Pulau Sulawesi Putri, Afriani Kartika; Dokhi, Mohammad
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2024 No 1 (2024): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2024
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2024i1.2244

Abstract

For the realization of the Golden Indonesia 2045, adolescents as the next generation of the nation are expected to become quality human resources. However, various problems in adolescents can hinder the achievement of the nation's progress, especially dropping out of school and early marriage. Therefore, this study aims to determine the characteristics of adolescent girls and the variables that affect their survival from early marriage by considering unobservable factors grouped by province in Sulawesi Island. The method used is survival analysis with the Weibull AFT Gamma Shared Frailty model based on the March 2023 Susenas data. This study show that the age of the spouse, migrant status, region of residence, school dropout status of adolescent girls, and school dropout status of the spouse affect the early marriage of adolescent girls, with the age of the spouse as the most influential factor. Dropping out of school was also shown to accelerate the timing of early marriage of adolescent girls by 0.941 times when the adolescent girl dropped out of school and by 0.963 times when she had a partner who dropped out of school. There was also a shared frailty effect in Sulawesi Island.
Simulasi Dampak Kebijakan Moneter terhadap Perekonomian dan Emisi CO2 Per Kapita di Indonesia Ningrum, Icha Wahyu Kusuma; Agustini, Peni; Nabilah, Yasmin Nur Alya
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2024 No 1 (2024): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2024
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2024i1.2247

Abstract

In running an economy, energy is needed as an input for the production process. However, energy needs are still dominated by energy from fossils that produce CO2 emissions. CO2 emissions can cause global climate change where the United Nations (UN) is struggling to combat climate change and its impacts through the 13th Sustainable Development Goals. This study aims to examine the simultaneous relationship between gross domestic product, CO2 emissions, and gross fixed capital formation in Indonesia and the variables that influence the three indicators using a simultaneous equation model with the two stage least squares (2SLS) method. In addition, a simulation will be carried out when an intervention is made on monetary policy against the three indicators. As a result, the scenario that can improve the economy and CO₂ emissions per capita is by lowering interest rates. While the scenario that can reduce the economy and CO2 emissions per capita is by raising interest rates.
Apakah Neraca Pembayaran Membatasi Pertumbuhan Ekonomi? Kusuma, Arya Candra; Wardani, Aulia Pramudya; Amirudin, Amirudin; Yuliana, Rita
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2024 No 1 (2024): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2024
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2024i1.2248

Abstract

The balance of payments is one of the economic indicators related to various macroeconomic indicators. However, recent years have seen a deficit in the trade balance, a key component of the balance of payments. As per the thirlwall hypothesis, this may slow economic progress. Thus, Indonesia's balance of payments must be managed. This research tests the thirlwall theory and analyzes Indonesia's balance of payments drivers. Annual time series data from 1998-2022 was utilized. The findings confirm the thirlwall theory in Indonesia. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model shows that GDP per capita and real interest rates negatively affect the balance of payments in the short and long run. The J-curve effect illustrates that the rupiah exchange rate negatively impacts the balance of payments in the near term but not in the long run. These findings may inform Indonesian balance of payments policy.
Prevalensi Status Bekerja Pemuda Fresh Graduate di Indonesia: Analisis Data Sakernas Natalia, Christiayu; Febri Putranto, FX Gugus
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2024 No 1 (2024): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2024
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2024i1.2249

Abstract

School to work transition is a crucial phase for individual success in the labor market. However, this transition is not occurring smoothly for fresh graduates in Indonesia. Despite stable economy in 2022, labor market absorption rate for fresh graduates in Indonesia remains low. This phenomenon is important as it is related to achieving Indonesia Emas 2045 through the quality of human capital among young people. This study aims to (1)analyze the general characteristics of fresh graduates based on their employment status; and (2)analyze the effect of demographic, human capital, and regional characteristics on the employment status. The data used is the microdata from Sakernas August 2022. The results of multinomial logistic regression show that human capital characteristics increase the probability of working in the formal sector but decrease the probability of working in the informal sector compared to being unemployed. These findings indicate a wait-and-see behavior in the labor market.
Pengembangan Aplikasi Chatbot dengan Large Language Model untuk Text-to-SQL Generation Nugraha, Gede Putra; Suadaa, Lya Hulliyyatus; Wilantika, Nori; Maghfiroh, Lutfi Rahmatuti
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2024 No 1 (2024): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2024
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2024i1.2252

Abstract

The agricultural census query builder system has two modes: a query builder mode with an interface that facilitates the selection of tables, columns, and query criteria, and an SQL programming mode for executing SQL queries. The system provides a list of queries for basic anomaly checking nationwide, but advanced and unique anomaly checking for each work unit requires writing SQL queries from scratch, which is inefficient. This research developed a chatbot application that translates user queries into SQL queries for data anomaly checking. This chatbot uses the Large Language Model (LLM) GPT-4o. The chatbot application development uses the Rapid Application Development (RAD) model for rapid system development. Black Box Test and System Usability Test with System Usability Scale (SUS) show the results as expected by the user, with an average SUS score of 84.17 which indicates the chatbot application is acceptable.

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