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Tessy Octavia Mukhti
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LPPM Universitas Negeri Padang, Jalan Prof. Dr. Hamka, Air Tawar Barat, Kota Padang, Sumatera Barat 25131
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UNP Journal of Statistics and Data Science
Published by Universitas Negeri Padang
ISSN : -     EISSN : 2985475X     DOI : 10.24036/ujsds
Core Subject : Science, Education, Social,
Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Mathematics Social Sciences
UNP Journal of Statistics and Data Science is an open access journal (e-journal) launched in 2022 by Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Negeri Padang. UJSDS publishes scientific articles on various aspects related to Statistics, Data Science, and its application. Articles can be in the form of research results, case studies, or literature reviews. All papers were reviewed by peer reviewers consisting of experts and academicians across universities.
Arjuna Subject : Matematika - Statistik dan Probabilitas
Articles 202 Documents
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Pengelompokan Wilayah Potensi Kebakaran Hutan dan Lahan di Pulau Sumatera Berdasarkan Titik Panas Menggunakan Metode CLARA Safitri, Melda; Salma, Admi; Amalita, Nonong; Fitri, Fadhilah
UNP Journal of Statistics and Data Science Vol. 2 No. 3 (2024): UNP Journal of Statistics and Data Science
Publisher : Departemen Statistika Universitas Negeri Padang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24036/ujsds/vol2-iss3/180

Abstract

Sumatera Island is one of the areas with the potential for forest and land fires in Indonesia. Sumatra Island has the largest oil palm plantation in Indonesia. The vast land area of oil palm plantations in Indonesia can increase the risk of fires due to land expansion by burning. In addition, the burning of peatlands in Sumatra can exacerbate the impact of forest and land fires. Forest and land fires on the island of Sumatra that occur every year can cause various negative impacts, indicating the need for countermeasures and prevention efforts to minimize the impact of forest and land fires. Hotspots can be used to detect fires in a region and help with prevention and countermeasures to reduce the impact of land and forest fires. Clustering the hotspot data allows one to obtain information on the presence of a fire in a given area as well as its potential status high, medium, or low. The clustering method used is the CLARA method. The CLARA method is a clustering method that breaks the dataset into groups. The advantages of the CLARA method are robust to outliers and effective for large data sets. The results of this research show that the CLARA method can be used for hotspot clustering with a silhouette coefficient of 0.53 in the use of 2 clusters. The analysis of the clustering results shows that cluster 1 is a cluster with low fire potential while cluster 2 is a cluster with high fire potential.
Classification of Harvest - Non Harvest in Rice Plant Image Using Convolutional Neural Network Algorithm Revina Rahmadani; Yenni Kurniawati; Dony Permana; Dina Fitria
UNP Journal of Statistics and Data Science Vol. 2 No. 3 (2024): UNP Journal of Statistics and Data Science
Publisher : Departemen Statistika Universitas Negeri Padang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24036/ujsds/vol2-iss3/181

Abstract

The Area Sample Framework (ASF) survey is an area based survey carried out by direct observation of sample parts whose locations have been determined. Every month ASF officers take photos of observation results using an Android based cellphone, where the results of the photos will be classified manually by supervision officers and sent to a central server for processing. The large amount of rice plant image data included can hinder officers in classifying rice growth phases. Therefore, to speed up the classification process, the Convolution Neural Network (CNN) method is used. In this research, the CNN model built consists of 3 convolution layers, 3 pooling, ReLU and Sigmoid activation functions, with several other parameters such as batch size and epoch value. The training results show that the accuracy value for the training data is 92.86% with an epoch value of 120. Meanwhile, the accuracy value for the validation data is 69.01%. Model evaluation shows a precision value of 21.34% and a recall value of 32.20%. This shows that the CNN model has poor performance in predicting harvest and non-harvest in rice plant images.
Pengelompokan Potensi Kebakarn Hutan/Lahan di Indonesia Berdasarkan Sebaran Titik Panas Mengunakan Metode CLARANS fitri, silfia wisa; Martha, Zamahsary; Kurniawati, Yenni; Zilrahmi
UNP Journal of Statistics and Data Science Vol. 2 No. 3 (2024): UNP Journal of Statistics and Data Science
Publisher : Departemen Statistika Universitas Negeri Padang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24036/ujsds/vol2-iss3/182

Abstract

Kebakaran hutan/lahan merupakan bencana yang sering terjadi di beberapa negara di dunia. Peristiwa ini mendapat perhatian lebih dari pemerintah karena menimbulkan banyak kerugian seperti ekonomi, ekologi dan sosial. Indonesia merupakan negara dengan tingkat bencana kebakaran hutan/lahan yang tinggi, hal ini menjadikan Indonesia sebagai negara penyumbang pencemaran terbesar ketiga di dunia. Sehingga diperlukan upaya penanggulangan sejak dini, salah satu upaya yang dapat dilakukan adalah dengan memanfaatkan data titik api dengan melakukan klasifikasi wilayah yang berpotensi terjadinya kebakaran hutan/lahan. Kebakaran hutan/lahan ditandai dengan terdeteksinya data titik api oleh satelit yang terindikasi sebagai titik api. Pada penelitian ini parameter yang digunakan adalah lintang, bujur, kecerahan, keyakinan dan FRP (fire power radiative) dengan menerapkan metode CLARANS. CLARANS merupakan varian dari algoritma k-medoid dan juga merupakan pengembangan dari algoritma sebelumnya, seperti PAM dan CLARA untuk menangani jumlah data yang lebih besar dan tahan terhadap outlier. Hasil penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa penggunaan metode CLARANS dapat digunakan untuk proses clustering data hotspot dengan hasil koefisien siluet sebesar 0,896 pada penggunaan 2 cluster dengan jumlah data sebanyak 12,287. Hasil cluster menunjukkan bahwa cluster 1 termasuk dalam potensi tinggi dengan kecerahan rata-rata 340K dengan kepercayaan rata-rata 95% dan cluster 2 termasuk dalam potensi sedang dengan kecerahan rata-rata 327 K.
Classification of Dropout Rates in West Sumatra Using the Random Forest Algorithm with Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique Anita Fadila; Syafriandi Syafriandi; Yenni Kurniawati; Admi Salma
UNP Journal of Statistics and Data Science Vol. 2 No. 3 (2024): UNP Journal of Statistics and Data Science
Publisher : Departemen Statistika Universitas Negeri Padang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24036/ujsds/vol2-iss3/183

Abstract

This study aims to classify school dropout rates in West Sumatra Province using the Random Forest algorithm with the Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique (SMOTE). Based on 2021 data from the Ministry of Education, Culture, Research, and Technology (Kemdikbudristek), the dropout rate in West Sumatra is above the national average. Despite efforts to reduce dropout rates, results remain suboptimal. Therefore, this study seeks to identify the causes of student dropouts and compare the performance of the Random Forest algorithm with and without SMOTE. The study uses the 2021 dropout data from West Sumatra, which has a significant class imbalance. SMOTE is applied to balance the data. The dataset is split into training and testing sets in an 80%:20% ratio, and parameter tuning is performed to optimize mtry and the number of trees (ntree). The model is evaluated using a confusion matrix to compare performance. The results show that Random Forest with SMOTE outperforms the version without SMOTE, with improvements in precision, recall, and F1-score. The presence of the biological mother ( ) is identified as the most significant factor influencing student dropouts, based on the Mean Decrease Gini value. The study concludes that using SMOTE in the Random Forest algorithm helps reduce classification bias and enhances the model's ability to detect students at risk of dropping out.
Analysis of the Population of Sumatera Island Using Profile Analysis Sri Rahayu; Dony Permana; Yenni Kurniawati; Dina Fitria
UNP Journal of Statistics and Data Science Vol. 2 No. 3 (2024): UNP Journal of Statistics and Data Science
Publisher : Departemen Statistika Universitas Negeri Padang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24036/ujsds/vol2-iss3/185

Abstract

The distribution of the population in each province according to age groups in Sumatra Island has tended to change over time. Therefore, an analysis is needed to provide a comparative overview of the characteristics between the populations of each province with different age groups. This analysis can help to understand the variations in these characteristics in relation to the population. Profile analysis is a technique within multivariate analysis of variance that can be used to examine the differences between two or more populations, where each population is influenced by several treatments (variables) tested. This method has been applied in various fields, including government, to understand the characteristics of specific regions. This study aims to identify the characteristics of the population in each province on the island of Sumatra based on sixteen age groups. Sumatra is one of the largest islands in Indonesia, comprising ten provinces. In this research, profile analysis is utilized to compare the population profiles of each province in Sumatra based on the sixteen age groups. Based on the profile parallelism test, it was found that the profiles of the ten provinces are not parallel, indicating differences in the average population numbers or trend patterns among the provincial profiles in Sumatra based on age groups. Further testing using Tukey's HSD method was conducted to compare each pair of provinces based on specific age groups. The testing revealed that there are significant differences in several provinces in Sumatra for each age group.
Vector Error Correction Model to Analyze the Impact of Exchange Rates and Money Supply on Inflation in Indonesia Faulina; Fitri, Fadhilah; Amalita, Nonong; Salma, Admi
UNP Journal of Statistics and Data Science Vol. 2 No. 3 (2024): UNP Journal of Statistics and Data Science
Publisher : Departemen Statistika Universitas Negeri Padang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24036/ujsds/vol2-iss3/188

Abstract

This study analyzes inflation in Indonesia in relation to the influence of exchange rates and the money supply (M2), which pose challenges in controlling inflation amidst rapid economic growth. Data from the Ministry of Trade of the Republic of Indonesia (Kemendag) were used to investigate the relationship between exchange rates and the money supply (M2) on inflation using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The results indicate that in the short term, inflation tends to decrease towards stability, with a strong exchange rate capable of reducing inflation, while an increase in the money supply slightly raises inflation. However, in the long term, inflation demonstrates a strong self-correction mechanism, with the influence of exchange rates and the money supply becoming limited. This model proves effective in forecasting inflation for the period from March to August 2024, with a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 19.59%.
Penerapan Rantai Markov pada Data Curah Hujan Harian di Kota Semarang Tsani, Nahda Maesya; Permana, Dony; Kurniawati, Yenni; Salma, Admi
UNP Journal of Statistics and Data Science Vol. 2 No. 3 (2024): UNP Journal of Statistics and Data Science
Publisher : Departemen Statistika Universitas Negeri Padang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24036/ujsds/vol2-iss3/189

Abstract

Rainfall is a measure of the amount of water that falls on the earth's surface in a given period of time. High rainfall can cause flooding in certain areas, while low rainfall can leave areas vulnerable to drought. Semarang City is one of the largest cities in Java Island that is often hit by floods. Efforts can be made to anticipate the risk of flooding, one of which is by studying the pattern of rainfall. This study will determine the chances of rainfall transition in Semarang City in steady state conditions using Markov chains. The results are expected to be used to anticipate the risk of flooding in Semarang City. The probability of daily rainfall transition in Semarang City in each state for the next period of time is 90.5% chance of staying in the light rain state, 7.97% chance of staying in the medium rain state and 1.50% chance of staying in the heavy rain state.
Pemetaan Indikator Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Di Provinsi Sumatera Barat Menggunakan Analisis Korespondensi Berganda Addini, Vidhiya; Dony Permana; Nonong Amalita; Admi Salma
UNP Journal of Statistics and Data Science Vol. 2 No. 3 (2024): UNP Journal of Statistics and Data Science
Publisher : Departemen Statistika Universitas Negeri Padang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24036/ujsds/vol2-iss3/190

Abstract

Economic growth is a key factor in sustainable regional development. This study employs Multiple Correspondence Analysis (MCA) to explore the relationships among economic growth indicators in the districts/cities of West Sumatra Province. Data from 2022 provided by the Central Statistics Agency are used to analyze economic growth indicators, including Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) at Constant Prices (X1), Human Development Index (X2), Labor Force Participation (X3), Domestic Investment (X4), Government Expenditure (X5), and Balance Fund Allocation (X6). The results of MCA reveal complex relationships among these variables, with the first and second dimensions explaining approximately 44.43% of the data variance. The MCA plots visualize clusters of districts/cities based on their economic characteristics. From these plots, it is concluded that there are disparities in economic growth indicators in West Sumatra Province, with 11 districts/cities requiring special attention to achieve equitable and sustainable economic growth. This study contributes to a deeper understanding of regional economic disparities in West Sumatra Province and their relevance to more targeted and sustainable development policies.
K-Medoids Cluster Analysis for Grouping Provinces in Indonesia Based on Agricultural Households ST2023 01, Riska; Zamahsary Martha; Dony Permana; Fadhilah Fitri
UNP Journal of Statistics and Data Science Vol. 2 No. 3 (2024): UNP Journal of Statistics and Data Science
Publisher : Departemen Statistika Universitas Negeri Padang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24036/ujsds/vol2-iss3/193

Abstract

Agriculture plays a crucial role in Indonesia's national development, providing essential resources such as raw materials, household income, and contributing significantly to Gross Domestik Product (GDP). According to the 2023 Agricultural Census (ST2023), there has been an increase in the number of Agricultural Household Enterprises (RTUP) across various agricultural subsectors. However, the welfare of agricultural entrepreneurs remains low, with 48.68% of poor household heads working in this sector. Therefore, an analysis is needed to understand the patterns and characteristics of RTUPs in each province. This study aims to cluster the provinces in Indonesia based on the number of Agricultural Household Enterprises (RTUP) using K-Medoids cluster analysis. K-Medoids, an extension of K-Means, was chosen for its ability to handle outliers by using medoids as cluster centers instead of means. The research utilized data from the 2023 Agricultural Census, covering 38 provinces and eight variables representing different agricultural subsectors. The optimal number of clusters was determined using the Elbow method, resulting in four distinct clusters. The findings revealed that Cluster 1 consists of 12 provinces with moderate RTUP numbers, Cluster 2 includes 23 provinces with low RTUP numbers, Cluster 3 comprises one province with high RTUP numbers, and Cluster 4 contains two provinces with very high RTUP numbers. The cluster validation using the Davies-Bouldin Index (DBI) yielded a value of 0.722, indicating that the clustering results are optimal.
Application of Extreme Learning Machine Algorithm (ELM) in Forecasting Inflation Rate in Indonesia Yonggi, Yonggi Septa Pramadia; Zamahsary Martha; Syafriandi Syafriandi; Tessy Octavia Mukhti
UNP Journal of Statistics and Data Science Vol. 2 No. 3 (2024): UNP Journal of Statistics and Data Science
Publisher : Departemen Statistika Universitas Negeri Padang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24036/ujsds/vol2-iss3/194

Abstract

One indicator to determine the economic stability of a country can be seen from the inflation rate of a country. Inflation is an economic symptom in the form of a general increase in prices or a tendency to increase the prices of goods and services in general and continuously. In an effort to anticipate the impact of inflation in the future, an analysis is needed to find out how the development of the inflation rate is by forecasting. Extreme Learning Machine (ELM) is a feed-forward artificial neural network (ANN) algorithm with one hidden layer called Single Hidden Layer Neural Networks (SLFNs). Based on the research, forecasting the inflation rate in Indonesia using the Extreme Learning Machine algorithm obtained the best architecture  (12,48,1) with a MAPE value of 11%. These results show good forecasting because the resulting MAPE is relatively low.

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