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Optimum: Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan
Published by Universitas Ahmad Dahlan
ISSN : 14116022     EISSN : 26139464     DOI : -
Core Subject : Economy,
Economics, Econometrics & Finance
The Optimum: Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan aims to publicize the results of research concerning economics and development at national, and international levels with particular emphasis on the application of quantitative and qualitative analysis.
Arjuna Subject : Ilmu Ekonomi, Ekonometrika dan Keuangan (semua kategori) - Ilmu Ekonomi, Ekonometrika dan Keuangan (Lain-Lain)
Articles 126 Documents
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PESTEL analysis of green tourism development based on Lumbung Mataraman: Comparative study of Bantul and Kulon Progo regencies Priyadi, Unggul; Ash Shidiqie, Jannahar Saddam; Putri, Alivia Rianti
Optimum: Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Vol. 16 No. 1 (2026)
Publisher : Universitas Ahmad Dahlan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.12928/optimum.v16i1.15134

Abstract

Green tourism initiatives tend to prioritize physical development and agricultural outputs, while insufficient attention is given to the integration of political coordination, economic value chain strengthening, social participation, technological innovation, environmental management, and legal-institutional arrangements. As a result, the development of Lumbung Mataraman-based green tourism remains fragmented and context-dependent, limiting its capacity to function as a comprehensive and sustainable development model. Addressing this gap, this study conducts a comparative analysis of green tourism development under the Lumbung Mataraman initiative in Bantul and Kulon Progo Regencies using the PESTEL framework. A qualitative comparative approach was employed through in-depth interviews, field observations, and document analysis, with all data coded and thematically analyzed using NVivo. The results reveal contrasting development patterns: Bantul demonstrates a governance-driven model marked by cross-sectoral integration and collaborative networks, while Kulon Progo exhibits a commodity-driven model dominated by plantation-based agrotourism with limited diversification. By extending the application of PESTEL to community-based green tourism linked to food security initiatives, this study offers a comparative conceptualization of differentiated development models that can inform more context-sensitive and adaptive regional tourism policies.
Pandemic shocks and time-varying weak-form efficiency in ASEAN foreign exchange markets: An empirical investigation Pinjaman, Saizal; Kok, Sook Ching; Aralas, Sarma; Basuki, Agus Tri; Hadi, Syamsul; Nugraha, Pazri; Darsono, Susilo Nur Aji Cokro
Optimum: Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Vol. 16 No. 1 (2026)
Publisher : Universitas Ahmad Dahlan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.12928/optimum.v16i1.15560

Abstract

This study examines the weak-form Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) for the selected ASEAN exchange rates—Brunei Darussalam, Indonesia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand—relative to the U.S. dollar (USD) over three distinct phases: pre-COVID-19 (2010–2019), during COVID-19 (2020–2021), and post-COVID-19 (2022–2023). Using monthly nominal exchange-rate data from the World Bank and applying the Augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF) unit root test, the study evaluates whether these exchange rates exhibit random-walk behavior consistent with weak-form efficiency. The results reveal that all ASEAN currencies were I(1) and efficient before the pandemic, supporting the weak-form EMH. However, efficiency deteriorated during COVID-19, particularly for Malaysia and Singapore, where exchange rates became stationary at level, indicating short-term predictability due to policy interventions and market disruptions. In the post-pandemic period, Malaysia and Singapore regained efficiency, while Indonesia and Thailand exhibited partial mean-reverting tendencies, reflecting gradual market normalization. Descriptive statistics further confirm increased volatility during the pandemic and partial stabilization thereafter. Overall, the findings suggest that ASEAN exchange-rate efficiency is time-varying, resilient under stable conditions but vulnerable during systemic shocks. Policy recommendations include enhancing monetary transparency, promoting flexible exchange-rate management, and strengthening regional financial coordination to sustain efficiency during future crises.
Downstream policy in Indonesia: Does it support energy security? Yaqin, Misbahol; Mu'min, M. Silahul
Optimum: Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Vol. 16 No. 1 (2026)
Publisher : Universitas Ahmad Dahlan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.12928/optimum.v16i1.15575

Abstract

The downstream policy in the mining sector aims to enhance the added value and competitiveness of national industries in a dynamic global market. This policy also impacts domestic energy security. This study examines whether Indonesia’s mining downstream policy supports energy security. Using panel data for 34 provinces from 2017 to 2022, we proxy downstreaming by mining sector value added. Energy security is measured by a composite index constructed with Principal Component Analysis from four dimensions: availability, accessibility, affordability, and acceptability. Fixed-effects panel estimates indicate that stronger downstream activity is associated with higher overall energy security, driven mainly by improvements in supply and access indicators such as installed generation capacity, electricity generation, and household electrification. In contrast, the estimated effect of downstreaming on the electricity price (tariff) measure is statistically insignificant, implying no robust evidence that downstreaming changes retail electricity prices over the study period. The findings suggest that downstream policy contributes to energy security primarily through capacity expansion and wider access, while affordability outcomes are likely shaped by other mechanisms, including regulated pricing and region-specific cost structures. The study provides province-level evidence to inform downstream strategies that better align industrial objectives with energy security goals.
Comparative analysis of leading and lagging techniques in investment strategies Gemita, Detri Heri; Muchran, Muchriana; Mira, Mira
Optimum: Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Vol. 16 No. 1 (2026)
Publisher : Universitas Ahmad Dahlan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.12928/optimum.v16i1.13641

Abstract

This research compares the accuracy and performance of leading and lagging indicators in predicting stock price movements on the IDXGrowth30 index over a three-year period from January 2021 to December 2023. Leading indicators provide signals before a trend forms, while lagging indicators confirm trends after price movements have occurred. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is used as a representation of the leading indicator, while the Parabolic Stop and Reverse (Parabolic SAR) represents the lagging indicator. This study evaluates the effectiveness of technical indicators in supporting investment decisions based on signaling theory. The results show that RSI has an accuracy rate of 94%, higher than Parabolic SAR's 39%, and also generates a larger return (14.652 compared to 3.032). These findings indicate that RSI is more effective in providing fast and accurate signals for growth-oriented stocks. This research fills a gap in the literature regarding the comparison of technical indicators on the IDXGrowth30 index, although the generalization of results remains limited.
The role of imports, exchange rates, and reserve stability in driving Indonesia’s export performance Syahrullah, Azmi Fawwaz; Effendi, Adang Djatnika; Sutanto, Herry
Optimum: Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Vol. 16 No. 1 (2026)
Publisher : Universitas Ahmad Dahlan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.12928/optimum.v16i1.15536

Abstract

Indonesia’s export performance is shaped by various macroeconomic factors that represent both the country’s production capabilities and broader external economic conditions. This study explores how exchange rates, imports, and foreign exchange reserves influence Indonesia’s export activities. In contrast to many earlier studies that examined these variables individually, this research brings them together in one empirical framework to better understand their joint impact on export performance. The analysis is based on annual time-series data from 1995 to 2024, sourced from the World Bank database. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model is applied to identify both short-run dynamics and long-run relationships among the variables. Prior to estimation, several econometric procedures are conducted, including unit root testing, optimal lag selection based on the Akaike Information Criterion, bounds testing for cointegration, and diagnostic tests to ensure model reliability. The empirical findings indicate that imports have a positive and statistically significant impact on Indonesia’s exports in both the short term and the long term. Meanwhile, the exchange rate does not appear to have a significant direct influence on export performance. Foreign exchange reserves, on the other hand, show a positive relationship with exports, although the statistical strength of this effect is relatively weaker. Overall, these results suggest that ensuring the availability of imported production inputs and maintaining macroeconomic stability are important factors in supporting sustainable export growth in Indonesia.  
Macroeconomic determinants on fossil fuel energy consumption in six ASEAN countries Silfani, Dwi; Rozaini, Noni
Optimum: Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Vol. 16 No. 1 (2026)
Publisher : Universitas Ahmad Dahlan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.12928/optimum.v16i1.15867

Abstract

ASEAN countries continue to face challenges in reducing their dependence on fossil fuels despite rapid economic growth and the ongoing global energy transition. This study examines how government expenditure, trade openness, and economic growth influence fossil fuel energy consumption in six ASEAN countries. Understanding the macroeconomic dynamics that drive fossil fuel use is critical for achieving international climate targets under the Paris Agreement, particularly as the region is among the fastest-growing in terms of energy demand and serves as a major global industrial base. Using panel data for the period 2001–2024 and a fixed effects model (FEM), the results show that economic growth has a positive but statistically insignificant effect on fossil fuel consumption, while trade openness and government expenditure have positive and statistically significant effects. These variables jointly explain approximately 98.28% of the variation, indicating that trade integration and fiscal expansion play a more dominant role than economic growth alone. These findings suggest that ASEAN’s reliance on fossil fuels is closely linked to trade dynamics and fiscal policy. Therefore, for regional economic integration to support the transition toward a sustainable energy system, trade and government spending policies must be aligned with energy efficiency and sustainability objectives.

Page 13 of 13 | Total Record : 126

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