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PESTEL analysis of green tourism development based on Lumbung Mataraman: Comparative study of Bantul and Kulon Progo regencies Unggul Priyadi; Jannahar Saddam Ash Shidiqie; Alivia Rianti Putri
Optimum: Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Vol. 16 No. 1 (2026)
Publisher : Universitas Ahmad Dahlan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.12928/optimum.v16i1.15134

Green tourism initiatives tend to prioritize physical development and agricultural outputs, while insufficient attention is given to the integration of political coordination, economic value chain strengthening, social participation, technological innovation, environmental management, and legal-institutional arrangements. As a result, the development of Lumbung Mataraman-based green tourism remains fragmented and context-dependent, limiting its capacity to function as a comprehensive and sustainable development model. Addressing this gap, this study conducts a comparative analysis of green tourism development under the Lumbung Mataraman initiative in Bantul and Kulon Progo Regencies using the PESTEL framework. A qualitative comparative approach was employed through in-depth interviews, field observations, and document analysis, with all data coded and thematically analyzed using NVivo. The results reveal contrasting development patterns: Bantul demonstrates a governance-driven model marked by cross-sectoral integration and collaborative networks, while Kulon Progo exhibits a commodity-driven model dominated by plantation-based agrotourism with limited diversification. By extending the application of PESTEL to community-based green tourism linked to food security initiatives, this study offers a comparative conceptualization of differentiated development models that can inform more context-sensitive and adaptive regional tourism policies.

Pandemic shocks and time-varying weak-form efficiency in ASEAN foreign exchange markets: An empirical investigation Saizal Pinjaman; Sook Ching Kok; Sarma Aralas; Agus Tri Basuki; Syamsul Hadi; Pazri Nugraha; Susilo Nur Aji Cokro Darsono
Optimum: Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Vol. 16 No. 1 (2026)
Publisher : Universitas Ahmad Dahlan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.12928/optimum.v16i1.15560

This study examines the weak-form Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) for the selected ASEAN exchange rates—Brunei Darussalam, Indonesia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand—relative to the U.S. dollar (USD) over three distinct phases: pre-COVID-19 (2010–2019), during COVID-19 (2020–2021), and post-COVID-19 (2022–2023). Using monthly nominal exchange-rate data from the World Bank and applying the Augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF) unit root test, the study evaluates whether these exchange rates exhibit random-walk behavior consistent with weak-form efficiency. The results reveal that all ASEAN currencies were I(1) and efficient before the pandemic, supporting the weak-form EMH. However, efficiency deteriorated during COVID-19, particularly for Malaysia and Singapore, where exchange rates became stationary at level, indicating short-term predictability due to policy interventions and market disruptions. In the post-pandemic period, Malaysia and Singapore regained efficiency, while Indonesia and Thailand exhibited partial mean-reverting tendencies, reflecting gradual market normalization. Descriptive statistics further confirm increased volatility during the pandemic and partial stabilization thereafter. Overall, the findings suggest that ASEAN exchange-rate efficiency is time-varying, resilient under stable conditions but vulnerable during systemic shocks. Policy recommendations include enhancing monetary transparency, promoting flexible exchange-rate management, and strengthening regional financial coordination to sustain efficiency during future crises.

Downstream policy in Indonesia: Does it support energy security? Misbahol Yaqin; M. Silahul Mu'min
Optimum: Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Vol. 16 No. 1 (2026)
Publisher : Universitas Ahmad Dahlan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.12928/optimum.v16i1.15575

The downstream policy in the mining sector aims to enhance the added value and competitiveness of national industries in a dynamic global market. This policy also impacts domestic energy security. This study examines whether Indonesia’s mining downstream policy supports energy security. Using panel data for 34 provinces from 2017 to 2022, we proxy downstreaming by mining sector value added. Energy security is measured by a composite index constructed with Principal Component Analysis from four dimensions: availability, accessibility, affordability, and acceptability. Fixed-effects panel estimates indicate that stronger downstream activity is associated with higher overall energy security, driven mainly by improvements in supply and access indicators such as installed generation capacity, electricity generation, and household electrification. In contrast, the estimated effect of downstreaming on the electricity price (tariff) measure is statistically insignificant, implying no robust evidence that downstreaming changes retail electricity prices over the study period. The findings suggest that downstream policy contributes to energy security primarily through capacity expansion and wider access, while affordability outcomes are likely shaped by other mechanisms, including regulated pricing and region-specific cost structures. The study provides province-level evidence to inform downstream strategies that better align industrial objectives with energy security goals.

Comparative analysis of leading and lagging techniques in investment strategies Detri Heri Gemita; Muchriana Muchran; Mira Mira
Optimum: Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Vol. 16 No. 1 (2026)
Publisher : Universitas Ahmad Dahlan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.12928/optimum.v16i1.13641

This research compares the accuracy and performance of leading and lagging indicators in predicting stock price movements on the IDXGrowth30 index over a three-year period from January 2021 to December 2023. Leading indicators provide signals before a trend forms, while lagging indicators confirm trends after price movements have occurred. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is used as a representation of the leading indicator, while the Parabolic Stop and Reverse (Parabolic SAR) represents the lagging indicator. This study evaluates the effectiveness of technical indicators in supporting investment decisions based on signaling theory. The results show that RSI has an accuracy rate of 94%, higher than Parabolic SAR's 39%, and also generates a larger return (14.652 compared to 3.032). These findings indicate that RSI is more effective in providing fast and accurate signals for growth-oriented stocks. This research fills a gap in the literature regarding the comparison of technical indicators on the IDXGrowth30 index, although the generalization of results remains limited.

The role of imports, exchange rates, and reserve stability in driving Indonesia’s export performance Azmi Fawwaz Syahrullah; Adang Djatnika Effendi; Herry Sutanto
Optimum: Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Vol. 16 No. 1 (2026)
Publisher : Universitas Ahmad Dahlan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.12928/optimum.v16i1.15536

Indonesia’s export performance is shaped by various macroeconomic factors that represent both the country’s production capabilities and broader external economic conditions. This study explores how exchange rates, imports, and foreign exchange reserves influence Indonesia’s export activities. In contrast to many earlier studies that examined these variables individually, this research brings them together in one empirical framework to better understand their joint impact on export performance. The analysis is based on annual time-series data from 1995 to 2024, sourced from the World Bank database. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model is applied to identify both short-run dynamics and long-run relationships among the variables. Prior to estimation, several econometric procedures are conducted, including unit root testing, optimal lag selection based on the Akaike Information Criterion, bounds testing for cointegration, and diagnostic tests to ensure model reliability. The empirical findings indicate that imports have a positive and statistically significant impact on Indonesia’s exports in both the short term and the long term. Meanwhile, the exchange rate does not appear to have a significant direct influence on export performance. Foreign exchange reserves, on the other hand, show a positive relationship with exports, although the statistical strength of this effect is relatively weaker. Overall, these results suggest that ensuring the availability of imported production inputs and maintaining macroeconomic stability are important factors in supporting sustainable export growth in Indonesia.

Macroeconomic determinants on fossil fuel energy consumption in six ASEAN countries Dwi Silfani; Noni Rozaini
Optimum: Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Vol. 16 No. 1 (2026)
Publisher : Universitas Ahmad Dahlan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.12928/optimum.v16i1.15867

ASEAN countries continue to face challenges in reducing their dependence on fossil fuels despite rapid economic growth and the ongoing global energy transition. This study examines how government expenditure, trade openness, and economic growth influence fossil fuel energy consumption in six ASEAN countries. Understanding the macroeconomic dynamics that drive fossil fuel use is critical for achieving international climate targets under the Paris Agreement, particularly as the region is among the fastest-growing in terms of energy demand and serves as a major global industrial base. Using panel data for the period 2001–2024 and a fixed effects model (FEM), the results show that economic growth has a positive but statistically insignificant effect on fossil fuel consumption, while trade openness and government expenditure have positive and statistically significant effects. These variables jointly explain approximately 98.28% of the variation, indicating that trade integration and fiscal expansion play a more dominant role than economic growth alone. These findings suggest that ASEAN’s reliance on fossil fuels is closely linked to trade dynamics and fiscal policy. Therefore, for regional economic integration to support the transition toward a sustainable energy system, trade and government spending policies must be aligned with energy efficiency and sustainability objectives.

Green tourism and sustainable development in ASEAN-5: Evidence from panel data Miftahul Jannah; Nani Sutarni
Optimum: Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Vol. 16 No. 2 (2026)
Publisher : Universitas Ahmad Dahlan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.12928/optimum.v16i2.13962

Tourism plays an important role in supporting sustainable development in ASEAN; however, its expansion can also generate environmental pressures that may undermine long-term sustainability. Green tourism offers an approach to balancing tourism development with environmental conservation and resource efficiency. This study examines the relationship between green tourism and sustainable development in five ASEAN countries—Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam—during the 2006–2021 period. Green tourism is proxied by the Environmental Performance Index (EPI), Travel and Tourism Development Index (TTDI), and Renewable Energy Consumption (REC), while Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is included as a control variable. The Sustainable Development Index (SDI) is used as the dependent variable. Using panel data regression, the Fixed Effects Model (FEM) is selected as the most appropriate estimation approach. The results indicate that EPI and TTDI have positive and statistically significant relationships with SDI, suggesting that stronger environmental performance and tourism development are associated with higher levels of sustainable development. In contrast, REC and GDP show negative and statistically significant relationships with SDI. These findings highlight the importance of strengthening environmental governance, improving sustainable tourism competitiveness, and accelerating the transition toward cleaner energy systems. The study provides empirical evidence that can support policymakers in designing integrated tourism and environmental strategies to advance sustainable development across ASEAN-5 countries.

Income analysis and the contribution of shallot farming to farm household income in Dringu district, Probolinggo regency Salsabila Arysca Dara; Nuriah Yuliati; Ika Sari Tondang
Optimum: Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Vol. 16 No. 2 (2026)
Publisher : Universitas Ahmad Dahlan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.12928/optimum.v16i2.14530

Shallots are a horticultural commodity that is a leading product in Dringu District, Probolinggo Regency. Farmers' income does not only come from shallot farming (on farm), but also from side businesses outside of farming (off farm) and outside of the agricultural sector (non-farm), which can help increase household income. The objective of this study was to analyze the income from shallot farming, its contribution to farmers’ household income, and the factors that influence shallot farming income in Dringu District, Probolinggo Regency. This study used a quantitative, descriptive survey method. The sampling method used stratified random sampling by land area, with a population of 1908 farmers, and a 5% sample was drawn from each stratum, resulting in 95 farmers. The research data were collected through interviews and field observations. The data analysis of farming income and household income contribution was conducted mathematically. The results of the study show that the income from shallot farming is Rp. 71,602,647 every planting season for a land area of 0.6 hectares, which indicates that there is a profit from farming. Shallot farming accounted for 89.9% of farmers' total household income, indicating that their livelihoods mainly depend on this activity. Collectively and partially, the variables of education level, production, land area, price, farming experience, number of dependents, and side jobs significantly influence shallot farming income. This requires regular training and mentoring to enable farmers to maintain their achieved income.

Analysis the effect of digital economy on income inequality: A study on six ASEAN countries I Kadek Eka Prana Jaya
Optimum: Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Vol. 16 No. 2 (2026)
Publisher : Universitas Ahmad Dahlan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.12928/optimum.v16i2.14966

The rapid development of the digital economy has reshaped labor markets and income distribution, raising concerns over whether digitalization exacerbates or reduces income inequality. While technological progress is often associated with skill-biased effects, digital technologies may also broaden access to markets, information, and economic opportunities, particularly in developing regions such as ASEAN. This study examines the impact of digital economy on income inequality in ASEAN countries and assesses whether the relationship follows a non-linear (U-shaped) pattern. Using panel data from six ASEAN countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam, and Philippines) over the period 2010–2020 (66 country-year observations), the analysis employs fixed-effects panel regression models. A quadratic specification is estimated to test for non-linearity, and potential endogeneity is addressed using a two-stage least squares (2SLS) approach with telecommunication-based instrumental variables. The empirical results indicate that digital economy has a negative and statistically significant effect on income inequality, suggesting an equalizing impact across ASEAN countries. The findings imply that digitalization reduces income inequality by expanding access to digital infrastructure and economic participation, thereby enhancing labor market inclusion and income opportunities for low- and middle-income groups. However, no robust evidence of a non-linear (U-shaped) relationship is found, as the estimated turning point lies outside the observed data range.

Village fiscal transfers and poverty alleviation in Java: Evidence from panel data analysis Triya Septiyaningrum; Jumaiyah Jumaiyah
Optimum: Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Vol. 16 No. 2 (2026)
Publisher : Universitas Ahmad Dahlan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.12928/optimum.v16i2.15704

Poverty remains a persistent challenge in economic development and a central concern of Sustainable Development Goal 1. Although previous studies have examined the relationship between village fiscal transfers and poverty, most focus on a single transfer instrument and rarely assess village funds, village fund allocation, and local tax and retribution revenue sharing simultaneously over an extended period. This study examines the association between these three fiscal transfer instruments and poverty across 79 districts in Java from 2016 to 2023 using a balanced eight-year panel dataset. A fixed-effects model is employed, supported by descriptive statistics, panel-data diagnostic tests, hypothesis testing, and robustness checks. The results show that all three fiscal transfer instruments are significantly and negatively associated with poverty. village funds exhibit the strongest association, with a coefficient of -0.109, followed by local tax and retribution revenue sharing (-0.036) and village fund allocation (-0.014). The model is jointly significant, with an F-statistic of 173.344 (p < 0.001), while the adjusted R-squared of 0.957 indicates strong overall model fit, although part of this explanatory power reflects unobserved, time-invariant district characteristics captured by fixed effects. The negative associations remain robust after correcting for cross-sectional dependence using robust standard errors and after separate estimations for the pre- and post-COVID-19 periods. These findings suggest that strengthening village fiscal transfers, particularly village funds, alongside improved governance, transparency, accountability, and community participation, can support poverty reduction and help narrow regional disparities across Java. The study provides empirical evidence for designing more effective and equitable intergovernmental fiscal policies.

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Mahrus Lutfi Adi Kurniawan

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optimum@uad.ac.id

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Location
Kota yogyakarta,

Daerah istimewa yogyakarta

INDONESIA

Abstract

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Home Page

OAI Link

Editorial Team

Contact

Reviewer

Google Scholar

Contact Name Mahrus Lutfi Adi Kurniawan

Contact Email mahrus.kurniawan@ep.uad.ac.id

Phone -

Journal Mail Official optimum@uad.ac.id

Editorial Address https://journal2.uad.ac.id/index.php/optimum/about/editorialTeam

Location Kota yogyakarta, Daerah istimewa yogyakarta INDONESIA

Abstract

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Abstract

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Abstract

Abstract

Abstract

Abstract

Abstract

Contact Name
Mahrus Lutfi Adi Kurniawan

Contact Email
mahrus.kurniawan@ep.uad.ac.id

Phone
-

Journal Mail Official
optimum@uad.ac.id

Editorial Address
https://journal2.uad.ac.id/index.php/optimum/about/editorialTeam

Location
Kota yogyakarta,

Daerah istimewa yogyakarta

INDONESIA