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All Journal Jurnal Ilmu Pertanian Indonesia Jurnal Penyuluhan AGRIEKSTENSIA Jurnal Ilmiah Ilmu Terapan Universitas Jambi Jurnal AGRISEP: Kajian Masalah Sosial Ekonomi Pertanian dan Agribisnis
Jamil, Ahmad Syariful
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Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Engineering Industrial & Manufacturing Engineering Languange, Linguistic, Communication & Media Social Sciences Veterinary

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Peramalan Harga Cabai Merah Indonesia: Pendekatan ARIMA Windhy, Adhis Millia; Jamil, Ahmad Syariful
AGRIEKSTENSIA Vol 20 No 1 (2021): AGRIEKSTENSIA: Jurnal Penelitian Terapan Bidang Pertanian
Publisher : Politeknik Pembangunan Pertanian Malang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (398.885 KB) | DOI: 10.34145/agriekstensia.v20i1.1502

Abstract

ABSTRAK Cabai merah ini juga menjadi salah satu komoditas penyumbang inflasi karena fluktuasi harganya yang bersifat musiman. Fluktuasi harga tersebut akan berpengaruh terhadap efektivitas kebijakan stabilisasi harga komoditas pertanian. Oleh karena itu, penelitian ini bertujuan untuk: 1) menganalisis keragaan cabai merah di Indonesia, 2) menganalisis peramalan harga cabai merah di Indonesia. Metode yang digunakan untuk menjawab tujuan dalam penelitian ini adalah Metode deskriptif dan metode peramalan harga menggunakan model Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA). Data yang digunakan pada penelitian ini adalah data sekunder berupa harga rata-rata cabe merah nasional secara mingguan sebanyak 540 series. Rentang data tersebut dari Minggu ke-1 Bulan Januari 2010 hingga Minggu ke-5 Bulan Desember 2018. Model ARIMA digunakan dalam penelitian ini dalam rangka menjawab tujuan penelitian. Harga rata-rata cabai merah Indonesia secara rata-rata mengalami fluktuasi yang relatif tinggi selama rentang periode penelitian. Hasil estimasi menunjukkan bahwa model ARIMA terbaik untuk memprediksi harga cabai merah nasional adalah model ARIMA (1,1,0). Harga cabai merah prediksi menunjukkan bahwa di masa yang akan datang harga cabai merah cenderung menurun. Penurunan harga cabai diduga diakibatkan menurunnya permintaan setelah libur tahun baru. Oleh karena itu, untuk meminimalisasi fluktuasi harga cabai merah perwakilan pemerintah seperti Bulog seharusnya dapat menjadi buffer atau penyangga pasokan dan sebagai penstabil harga. Kata kunci—Fluktuasi harga, Peramalan, ARIMA ABSTRACT Red chilli is one of the commodities contributing to inflation due to seasonal fluctuations in its price. These price fluctuations will affect the effectiveness of the price stabilization policy for agricultural commodities. Therefore, this study aims to: 1) analyze the performance of red chilli in Indonesia, 2) analyze the forecasting of red chilli prices in Indonesia. The method used to answer the objectives in this study is a descriptive method and price forecasting method using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. The data used in this study is secondary data in the form of an average weekly price of national red chillies as many as 540 series. The data range is from the 1st week of January 2010 to the 5th week of December 2018. The ARIMA model is used in this study in order to answer the research objectives. The average price of Indonesian red chillies has relatively high fluctuations throughout the study period. The estimation results show that the best ARIMA model to predict the price of national red chilli is the ARIMA model (1,1,0). The prediction of red chilli prices shows that the price of red chilies will tend to decline in the future. The decline in chilli prices is thought to be due to lower demand after the New Year holidays. Therefore, to minimize price fluctuations for red chilli peppers, government representatives such as Bulog should be able to act as a buffer or supply buffer and as a price stabilizer. Keywords—Price fluctuations, Forecasting, ARIMA
Keputusan Petani Swadaya dalam Implementasi Sistem Sertifikasi Indonesian Sustainable Palm Oil (ISPO) Muchlis, Fuad; Zainuddin, Ahmad; Destiarni, Resti Prestika; Jamil, Ahmad Syariful; Amalia, Dwi Nurul; Fathony, Zakky; Azis, Muhammad Abdul; Meilin, Araz
Jurnal Penyuluhan Vol. 21 No. 01 (2025): Jurnal Penyuluhan
Publisher : Department of Communication and Community Development Sciences and PAPPI (Perhimpunan Ahli Penyuluhan Pembangunan Indonesia)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.25015/21202556757

Abstract

Indonesian Sustainable Palm Oil (ISPO) dibentuk sebagai respon terhadap dampak negatif yang disebabkan oleh ekspansi perkebunan kelapa sawit di Indonesia. Kebijakan sertifikasi ISPO diharapkan dapat mempercepat adopsi praktik pertanian yang baik pada komoditi kelapa sawit yang memberikan dampak positif bagi lingkungan. Akan tetapi implementasi prinsip dan kriteria ISPO di tingkat petani swadaya masih rendah. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis faktor-faktor determinan yang mempengaruhi keputusan petani swadaya untuk melakukan sertifikasi ISPO dari empat kabupaten (Kabupaten Batanghari, Muaro Jambi, Tebo dan Tanjung Jabung Barat) di Provinsi Jambi. Penelitian ini dilakukan melalui survei dengan menggunakan kuesioner untuk mengumpulkan data primer dan menggunakan analisis logit untuk menjawab tujuan penelitian. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa luas lahan bersertifikat, umur, pengalaman dalam berusahatani kelapa sawit, jumlah pohon kelapa sawit, keikutsertaan kelompok tani, perbedaan harga sawit ISPO dan non ISPO, kemudahan implementasi sertifikasi ISPO, dan pengetahuan terkait ISPO berpengaruh positif terhadap keputusan petani mengimplementasikan ISPO. Sedangkan faktor tingkat pendidikan dan penyuluhan tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap keputusan petani mengimplementasikan ISPO. Studi ini merekomendasikan adanya kebijakan pemerintah terkait penetapan harga kelapa sawit ISPO dan Non ISPO, pendampingan dari stakeholders terkait, dan menciptakan ekosistem pendukung untuk meningkatkan partisipasi petani dalam mengadopsi sertifikasi ISPO.
Implementation Strategy of Indonesia Sustainable Palm Oil (ISPO) Certification: A'WOT Analysis Approach Zainuddin, Ahmad; Muchlis , Fuad; Destiarni , Resti Prestika; Jamil, Ahmad Syariful; Meilin, Araz; Amalia, Dwi Nurul; Aziz, Muhammad Abdul
Jurnal Ilmu Pertanian Indonesia Vol. 30 No. 3 (2025): Jurnal Ilmu Pertanian Indonesia
Publisher : Institut Pertanian Bogor

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.18343/jipi.30.3.500

Abstract

The Indonesian Sustainable Palm Oil (ISPO) program was established in 2011 in response to the adverse environmental impacts caused by the expansion of palm oil production in Indonesia. To date, the ISPO implementation in Jambi Province is still relatively low. This is because there are many weaknesses and challenges in implementing the ISPO. This study aimed to identify implementation strategies for sustainable palm oil certification in Jambi Province. This analysis uses the A'WOT approach, which integrates the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and SWOT analysis. Based on the A'WOT analysis, 23 external and internal factors were obtained, which are strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats. In addition, the A’WOT analysis results show that the priority strategy that can be implemented is to involve MBKM (Merdeka Belajar-Kampus Merdeka, Freedom of Learning-Independent Campus) students in helping farmers. This strategy is because independent smallholders' understanding of ISPO is low and the number of ISPO extension workers or assistants is also limited. Therefore, the choice of strategy that can improve understanding of ISPO implementation is to involve MBKM students to help provide counseling and understanding related to ISPO. Keywords: AHP, independent smallholders, ISPO, oil palm, SWOT
POSISI DAYA SAING DAN TINGKAT KONSENTRASI PASAR EKSPOR KARET ALAM INDONESIA DI PASAR GLOBAL Lindung, Lindung; Jamil, Ahmad Syariful
Jurnal AGRISEP JURNAL AGRISEP VOL 17 NO 02 2018 (OCTOBER)
Publisher : Badan Penerbitan Fakultas Pertanian, Universitas Bengkulu

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (280.002 KB) | DOI: 10.31186/jagrisep.17.2.119-128

Abstract

Most domestic natural rubber production is exported. The aim of this study is to analyze the position and competitiveness of natural rubber as an Indonesia’s main export commodity. This research used time series data of natural rubber export from 2001 until 2016 from Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia and Vietnam. The rubber market structure was oligopoly. In addition, Indonesia has both comparative and competitive advantages based on RCA and ECI index. Differentiation of natural rubber is one of alternative ways that can be taken Indonesia
SUSTAINABLE LIVELIHOODS FOR SUKU ANAK DALAM: INTEGRATING LOCAL WISDOM AND NATURAL RESOURCES Muchlis, Fuad; Elwamendri, Elwamendri; Sardi, Idris; Fathoni, Zakky; Jamil, Ahmad Syariful
Jurnal Ilmiah Ilmu Terapan Universitas Jambi Vol. 9 No. 1 (2025): Volume 9, Nomor 1, March 2025
Publisher : LPPM Universitas Jambi

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.22437/jiituj.v9i1.36515

Abstract

The issue of poverty and food and nutritional vulnerability in the Suku Anak Dalam (SAD) community in Bukit Duabelas National Park requires special attention. This study will integrate various assets owned by indigenous communities, including local wisdom and social capital, with opportunities to develop the potential of natural resources in TNBD to support the achievement of SDGs. This research aims to describe the picture of SAD livelihoods and their changes and design a design or pattern for sustainable SAD livelihood development. The research uses a constructivist paradigm with a case study approach. Data analysis uses the Sustainable Livelihoods Framework to identify and evaluate SAD individuals or communities' assets, capacities, and strategies for maintaining sustainable livelihoods. The results of this research show that, SAD communities in TNBD still depend on extractive agriculture, such as hunting and gathering, but are starting to switch to plantation cultivation, such as oil palm and rubber. Professions outside the agricultural sector are limited, and their access to formal employment is hampered by limited education and skills. SAD has a variety of assets, including human, natural, social, financial, and physical capital. Social and natural capital are their main assets. Despite limited education, their natural resources are sufficient to support life. To increase SAD's livelihood sources, interventions such as utilizing mapped site space, piloting productive site projects, strengthening cooperation between government, NGOs and the private sector, and community-based sustainable forest management are needed.
Co-Authors Ahmad Zainuddin Araz Meilin Azis, Muhammad Abdul Destiarni , Resti Prestika Destiarni, Resti Prestika Dwi Nurul Amalia, Dwi Nurul Elwamendri Fathony, Zakky Fuad Muchlis Idris Sardi Lindung, Lindung Muhammad Abdul Aziz Windhy, Adhis Millia zakky fathoni, zakky