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Penerapan Metode Fuzzy Time Series Chen Orde Tinggi Pada Peramalan Nilai Tukar Petani Provinsi Gorontalo Nur Miftah Muhammad; Isran K. Hasan; Armayani Arsal; Emli Rahmi; Laode Nashar
Jurnal Riset Mahasiswa Matematika Vol 5, No 4 (2026): Jurnal Riset Mahasiswa Matematika
Publisher : Universitas Islam Negeri Maulana Malik Ibrahim Malang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.18860/jrmm.v5i4.41337

Abstract

Nilai Tukar Petani (NTP) merupakan salah satu indikator ekonomi yang digunakan untuk menggambarkan tingkat kesejahteraan petani dan kondisi sektor pertanian. Pergerakan nilai NTP yang bersifat fluktuatif memerlukan pendekatan peramalan yang mampu menangkap pola data secara memadai. Penelitian ini bertujuan menerapkan metode Fuzzy Time Series (FTS) Chen orde tinggi untuk meramalkan Nilai Tukar Petani di Provinsi Gorontalo serta mengidentifikasi model orde yang memberikan tingkat kesalahan peramalan yang paling tepat. Data yang digunakan berupa data bulanan NTP Provinsi Gorontalo periode Januari 2020 hingga Oktober 2025 yang terdiri dari 70 observasi dan diperoleh dari publikasi resmi Badan Pusat Statistik. Data dibagi menjadi 80% data latih dan 20% data uji menggunakan pendekatan pembagian berdasarkan waktu. Tahapan analisis meliputi penentuan himpunan semesta, pembentukan interval, proses fuzzifikasi, pembentukan Fuzzy Logical Relationship (FLR) dan Fuzzy Logical Relationship Group (FLRG), defuzzifikasi, serta evaluasi kinerja model menggunakan Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa model FTS Chen orde dua menghasilkan nilai MAPE sebesar 3,3164% pada data uji, yang lebih kecil dibandingkan dengan model orde satu. Sementara itu, model orde tiga tidak dapat digunakan secara optimal karena tidak terbentuk hubungan fuzzy pada beberapa periode data pengujian. Hasil ini menunjukkan bahwa pendekatan FTS Chen orde dua dapat memberikan hasil peramalan yang relatif lebih baik pada data NTP yang dianalisis dalam penelitian ini.
Penerapan Analisis Jalur Pengaruh Kualitas Layanan Akademik Terhadap Loyalitas Melalui Kepuasan Mahasiswa Khairun IT. Aluy; Emli Rahmi; Dewi Rahmawaty Isa; Friansyah Gani
Research Review: Jurnal Ilmiah Multidisiplin Vol. 5 No. 1 (2026): Research Review: Jurnal Ilmiah Multidisiplin (Februari 2026 - Juli 2026)
Publisher : Transbahasa

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.54923/researchreview.v5i1.312

Abstract

Student loyalty is an important indicator of institutional sustainability and competitiveness in higher education. One factor that influences student loyalty is the quality of academic services provided by universities. High-quality academic services can improve students’ learning experiences and increase their satisfaction, which in turn may strengthen their loyalty to the institution. This study aims to analyze the effect of academic service quality on student loyalty, with student satisfaction acting as a mediating variable. This research employs a quantitative approach using path analysis to examine both the direct and indirect relationships among the variables. Data were collected from university students through questionnaires measuring perceptions of academic service quality, student satisfaction, and student loyalty. The results show that academic service quality has a significant direct effect on student loyalty with a coefficient value of 0.327. In addition, academic service quality has a significant indirect effect on student loyalty through student satisfaction with a coefficient value of 0.241. These findings indicate that better academic service quality leads to higher student satisfaction, which subsequently enhances student loyalty toward the institution. The study emphasizes the importance of continuously improving academic service quality in order to create better learning experiences and strengthen student loyalty in higher education institutions.
OPTIMIZING UNIVARIATE TIME SERIES IMPUTATION USING RANDOM FOREST REGRESSION AND LSTM FOR ACCURATE FORECASTING Maulana Baihaqi Ramadhan; Emli Rahmi; Isran Hasan
Jurnal Statistika dan Aplikasinya Vol. 10 No. 1 (2026): Jurnal Statistika dan Aplikasinya
Publisher : LPPM Universitas Negeri Jakarta

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.21009/JSA.10108

Abstract

Indonesia possesses high solar radiation potential, making solar energy a strategic pillar for the national clean energy transition. However, its utilization is hindered by incomplete data due to instrument failure, which significantly reduces prediction accuracy. Starting from this problem, this study aims to evaluate the performance of the Machine Learning Based Univariate Time Series Imputation-Random Forest Regression (MLBUI-RFR) method by comparing it with the Mean Imputation method and evaluating it through Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) forecasting. The methodology begins with data preprocessing using the MLBUI-RFR scheme to handle missing values, which are then used as input for the LSTM architecture to forecast solar radiation in Indonesia. The findings demonstrate that the use of the MLBUI-RFR method contributes significantly to improving data quality, where the LSTM model trained with MLBUI-RFR imputed data achieves higher accuracy compared to Mean Imputation. The evaluation results show a lower error rate, with an NRMSE of (15.68%) and a MAPE of (18.98%), whereas the Mean Imputation method yields an NRMSE of (16.06%) and a MAPE of (19.15%) proving that the proposed method is more effective in capturing non-linear patterns in the data. However, this study is based exclusively on data obtained from the Gorontalo Climatology Station in Gorontalo Province, Indonesia. The contribution of this study lies in evaluating the integration of MLBUI-RFR and LSTM for solar radiation forecasting, demonstrating how machine learning based univariate time series imputation can improve data quality and subsequently enhance forecasting performance on solar radiation data.
Ethno-STEM Mobile Apps in Formal Education: A Systematic Review of Design Principles, Cultural Adaptation, and Learning Outcomes Indah Permatasari; Hasan S. Panigoro; Emli Rahmi
Euler : Jurnal Ilmiah Matematika, Sains dan Teknologi Volume 14 Issue 1 April 2026
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Gorontalo

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.37905/euler.v14i1.37935

Abstract

This study presents a systematic literature review examining the development and educational impact of ethno-STEM mobile applications used in formal education. The review aims to synthesize evidence regarding three main aspects: design principles and technical features of ethno-STEM mobile apps, the integration and cultural adaptation of local knowledge, and the learning outcomes reported for students. The review followed the PRISMA 2020 framework to ensure transparency and methodological rigor in the identification, screening, and synthesis of relevant studies. Literature was retrieved from the SCOPUS database using Boolean keywords covering publications from 2016 to 2026. After a structured screening process involving document type filtering and content-based eligibility criteria, five studies were included in the final qualitative synthesis. The findings reveal that most ethno-STEM mobile applications are developed using Android platforms and instructional design frameworks such as ADDIE, emphasizing multimedia integration, interactive visualization, and guided inquiry structures. Cultural knowledge is incorporated through approaches such as ethnopedagogy, ethnomathematics, ethnoscience, and dual representation of indigenous and scientific knowledge systems. However, cultural validation processes are commonly limited to expert reviews and user evaluations rather than participatory collaboration with community knowledge holders. The reviewed studies report positive educational outcomes, including improvements in mathematical problem solving, creative thinking, scientific literacy, and student engagement. Nevertheless, most evaluations rely on short-term interventions and limited methodological rigor, with little evidence of long-term learning impacts or identity development. Overall, the findings suggest that ethno-STEM mobile applications show strong pedagogical potential but require more robust cultural validation frameworks and longitudinal evaluation to support sustainable and culturally responsive STEM learning.
Calculation of Annual Premiums and Premium Reserves for Endowment Joint Life Insurance Based on Stochastic Interest Rates Using the Monte Carlo Method Bela Cintiya Samwan; Agusyarif Rezka Nuha; Armayani Arsal; Emli Rahmi; La Ode Nashar
Jurnal Multidisiplin Sahombu Vol. 6 No. 01 (2026): Jurnal Multidisiplin Sahombu, January 2026
Publisher : Sean Institute

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar

Abstract

This study examines the determination of annual premiums and premium reserves for an endowment joint life insurance product by incorporating interest rate uncertainty through the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) stochastic model and Monte Carlo simulation. The Indonesian Mortality Table 2023 is used to compute joint survival probabilities for the three insured individuals, while the CIR parameters are estimated from historical interest rate data for the period 2020-2024. The present value of benefits and annuities is calculated along each simulated path, enabling the premium and premium reserves to be evaluated prospectively based on fluctuating interest rate dynamics. The results show that the magnitude of premiums and reserves is influenced by the initial ages of the insured, the mortality structure, the sum assured, and the variability of the simulated interest rates. At the beginning of the contract, all scenarios produce negative reserves because accumulated premiums are still insufficient to cover the expected present value of benefits. However, the reserves increase steadily over time and turn positive toward the end of the insurance term. These findings indicate that the Monte Carlo approach based on the CIR model provides a more adaptive and realistic representation of premium and reserve behavior compared with deterministic methods, thereby supporting more accurate financial risk assessment for insurance companies.
Determination of Premium Price for Rice Crop Insurance in Gorontalo Province Based on Rainfall Index with Black Scholes Method Ana Nadiyyah; Emli Rahmi; Salmun K. Nasib; Agusyarif Rezka Nuha; Nisky Imansyah Yahya; La Ode Nashar
Pattimura International Journal of Mathematics (PIJMath) Vol 3 No 2 (2024): Pattimura International Journal of Mathematics (PIJMath)
Publisher : Pattimura University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/pijmathvol3iss2pp51-62

Abstract

With its complex topography, Gorontalo Province experiences significant rainfall variations that impact the agricultural sector, particularly rice crops. These variations can cause substantial losses for farmers. One way to address uncertain probabilities caused by rainfall is through agricultural insurance. This research aims to calculate the value of agricultural insurance premiums based on the rainfall index. The Black- Scholes method is used to calculate the premiums, while the Burn Analysis method is employed to determine the rainfall index. The research results classify the rainfall index values in Gorontalo Province into 7 (seven) percentiles. The lowest is at the 20th percentile, with 17.37 mm and a premium value of IDR 1,574,190, while the highest is at the 80th percentile, with 17.65 mm and a premium value of IDR 2,154,574. This indicates that the higher the rainfall, the greater the premium to be paid.
PENGEMBANGAN E-LKPD BERBASIS PROBLEM BASED LEARNING BERBANTUAN WIZER.ME PADA MATERI SPtLDV KELAS X Wahyudin R Mopi; Emli Rahmi; Bertu R. Takaendengan
Pedagogy: Jurnal Pendidikan Matematika Vol. 11 No. 2 (2026): Pedagogy : Jurnal Pendidikan Matematika
Publisher : Universitas Cokroaminoto Palopo

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30605/e7zdcx34

Abstract

Permasalahan dalam penelitian ini terletak pada belum optimalnya pemanfaatan teknologi pembelajaran dan penggunaan bahan ajar digital interaktif dalam pembelajaran matematika, sehingga peserta didik masih mengalami kesulitan memahami konsep dan menyelesaikan soal kontekstual pada materi Sistem Pertidaksamaan Linear Dua Variabel (SPtLDV). Penelitian ini bertujuan mengembangkan E-LKPD berbasis Problem Based Learning (PBL) berbantuan Wizer.me yang memenuhi kriteria valid dan praktis. Metode yang digunakan adalah Research and Development (R&D) dengan model ADDIE yang meliputi tahap analysis, design, development, implementation, dan evaluation. Subjek penelitian terdiri atas 4 validator yang terdiri dari 2 ahli media dan 2 ahli materi, 23 peserta didik kelas X, serta 1 guru matematika kelas X. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa E-LKPD yang dikembangkan memenuhi kriteria valid berdasarkan penilaian empat validator, yaitu validator ahli media 1 sebesar 89,33%, validator ahli media 2 sebesar 76%, validator ahli materi 1 sebesar 74,67%, dan validator ahli materi 2 sebesar 78,67%. Selain itu, E-LKPD memperoleh persentase kepraktisan sebesar 84,43% berdasarkan respon peserta didik dan 87,50% berdasarkan respon guru matematika. Dengan demikian, E-LKPD berbasis Problem Based Learning berbantuan Wizer.me dinyatakan valid dan praktis untuk digunakan dalam pembelajaran matematika.
ANALISIS BUTIR ESAI 10-ITEM PADA KELAS XI SMA MUHAMMADIYAH BATUDAA 2025/2026 Nur'Ain Pratami A. Konijo; Tedy Machmud; Emli Rahmi
JP2M (Jurnal Pendidikan dan Pembelajaran Matematika) Vol 11, No 2 (2025)
Publisher : Universitas Bhinneka PGRI

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29100/jp2m.v11i2.9701

Abstract

In the 2025–2026 academic year, this research is to assess the quality of the math exam problems on the subject of three-variable linear equation systems in the interactive e-book for grade XI at SMA Muhammadiyah Batudaa that is based on infographics.  Four primary factors were examined in the evaluation: the degree of difficulty, validity, dependability, and discriminating power.  Student response sheets from a ten-question essay test served as the data source for the quantitative descriptive methodology.  Twenty-seven XIA students served as the study's subjects.  50% of the questions had strong discriminating power, 10% were sufficient, 30% were poor, and 10% were extremely poor, according to the analysis's findings.  Thirty percent of the questions were categorized as easy, sixty percent as moderate, and ten percent as challenging.  According to validity analysis, half of the items were deemed valid and the other half were deemed invalid.  The instrument has strong internal consistency, as indicated by the reliability test findings using the Cronbach's Alpha formula, which produced a coefficient value of 0.803, falling into the very high range.  These results suggest that although incorrect or ineffective questions should be changed or replaced, valid and high-quality questions should be added to the question bank.  To guarantee fair and accurate assessment quality, regular evaluation and instrument trials are strongly advised.
Media pembelajaran kontekstual dalam pendidikan matematika di indonesia: Tinjauan sistematis Dewi Tarisa Putri; Majid Majid; Emli Rahmi
JPMI (Jurnal Pembelajaran Matematika Inovatif) Vol. 9 No. 4 (2026): JPMI
Publisher : IKIP Siliwangi

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.22460/jpmi.v9i4.31439

Abstract

Contextual learning has become an important approach in mathematics education. This study aims to analyze research trends, implementation, impacts, and challenges in the use of contextual learning media in mathematics education in Indonesia. In addition, this study identifies the characteristics of contextual learning media used in mathematics learning. This research employed a Systematic Literature Review (SLR) method using the PRISMA 2020 guidelines. The data were obtained from the Scopus database covering the 2020–2025 period using the Boolean keywords “Learning Media AND Math* AND Indonesian”. The research stages included article identification, screening, eligibility assessment based on inclusion and exclusion criteria, and synthesis of selected articles. Reference management was supported by Publish or Perish, Mendeley, Zotero, and Microsoft Excel. The findings show that contextual learning media have developed through local culture-based approaches and interactive digital technology. These media improve student engagement, mathematical literacy, mathematical communication, critical thinking, and conceptual understanding. However, their implementation still faces challenges related to teacher readiness, media integration, and diverse student characteristics.