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Journal : Electro Luceat

PERBANDINGAN METODE PEMULUSAN EKSPONENSIAL GANDA HOLT DAN METODE ARIMA BOX-JENKINS Yosita Lianawati
Electro Luceat Vol 7 No 2 (2021): Electro Luceat (JEC) - November 2021
Publisher : LPPM Poltek ST Paul

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.32531/jelekn.v7i2.404

Abstract

Penduduk merupakan faktor dominan dalam pelaksanaan pembangunan serta penduduk menjadi pelaksana tujuan pembangunan. Pemerintah perlu meramalkan jumlah penduduk untuk menentukan tujuan kebijakan ekonomi. Peramalan jumlah penduduk merupakan hal yang penting bagi pemerintah untuk menentukan arah kebijakan perekonomian bangsa. Data populasi yang pada dasarnya merupakan data deret waktu dapat dianalisis dengan metode rata-rata bergerak, metode pemulusan eksponensial, dan metode ARIMA. Metode pemulusan eksponensial yang digunakan adalah pemulusan eksponensial ganda Holt karena data jumlah penduduk berpola trend linier. Penelitian difokuskan pada peramalan populasi dengan menggunakan pemulusan eksponensial ganda Holt dan ARIMA. Pemulusan eksponensial ganda Holt menggunakan nilai parameter 0,3 dan 0,99. Nilai parameter yang digunakan adalah 0,05 dan 0,9. Pemulusan eksponensial ganda Holt, diperoleh nilai jumlah penduduk untuk tahun 2020 sebesar 1.614.339 jiwa , tahun 2021 sebesar 1.626.379 jiwa, tahun 2022 sebesar 1.641.519 jiwa. ARIMA hasil nilai ramalan jumlah penduduk tahun 2020 sebanyak 1.618.258 jiwa, tahun 2021 sebanyak 1.628.259 jiwa, tahun 2022 sebanyak 1.643.417 jiwa. Nilai a=0,99 dan g=0,05 memberikan MSE terkecil pada nilai 15175922,58. Model ARIMA (1, 1, 1) nilai MSE terkecil 17373940. Setelah dibandingkan, metode Holt pemulusan eksponensial ganda sama efektifnya dengan metode ARIMA untuk meramalkan jumlah penduduk di Kabupaten Banyumas.
RANCANG BANGUN SISTEM INFORMASI HIMPUNAN ALUMNI MAHASISWA STIKOM YOS SUDARSO (HAMSYS) PURWOKERTO BERBASIS WEBSITE Carolina Ety Widjayanti; Brilian Amalsha Katigo; Rosalina Yani Widiastuti; Antonius Ary Setyawan
Electro Luceat Vol 9 No 1 (2023): Electro Luceat (JEC) - Juli 2023
Publisher : LPPM Poltek ST Paul

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.32531/jelekn.v9i1.478

Abstract

STIKOM Yos Sudarso is a college that annually produces graduates. For these graduates, a tracing process is needed to evaluate the curriculum to improve their quality. However, the recording of alumni data that still use excel, tracing studies that still use google forms where the contents have not been adjusted to the Kemdikbud template, and the job vacancies that are only shared through WhatsApp groups are still obstacles in the process of improving alumni quality. Therefore, a website-based Information System for STIKOM Yos Sudarso Student Alumni Association (HAMSYS) Purwokerto was developed using a prototype method, PHP programming language, and MySQL database. The hypotheses were tested using paired sample t-test, while the system was tested using a black box and white box test. In addition, a system evaluation was carried out through benefit testing based on ISO 25010. From the benefits test, the percentage of "agree" and "strongly agree" answers were 96,23% on Functional Suitability, 90,33% on Performance Efficiency, 97,68% on Usability, 92.08% on Reliability, and 92,9% on Maintainability. Based on the test results, it can be concluded that the HAMSYS system has been successfully developed with good quality and can simplify also speed up the tracer study reporting process.
SISTEM INFORMASI PENDAFTARAN SISWA PADA LEMBAGA KURSUS DAN PELATIHAN INTERNATIONAL COLLEGE PURWOKERTO BERBASIS WEBSITE Carolina Ety Widjayanti; Priska Candra Sanubari; Dhany Faizal Racma; Antonius Ary Setyawan
Electro Luceat Vol 9 No 1 (2023): Electro Luceat (JEC) - Juli 2023
Publisher : LPPM Poltek ST Paul

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.32531/jelekn.v9i1.590

Abstract

International College Purwokerto is a Foreign Language Course and Training Institute (LCT) and tutoring that provides additional learning services provided to students to increase the intensity of learning and increase proficiency in foreign languages. The registration system that now runs at LCT International College Purwokerto, has not been systemized in managing registration data, so reporting student enrollment requires time to work on the data of students who apply. Every semester, students where LCT is increasing so that student data has not been stored properly. Student data is still written in books, when within a certain period of time the student data is required to search for student documents so that it takes time to search. During this pandemic,LCT International College urgently needs facilities such as student registration through the website so that students can register online from their homes by filling in their personal data and files needed without having to come to LCT so that it is more time efficient. In addition to assisting the LCT in the registration of this inventory system using the prototype method in the system development stage. To collect the data, researchers conduct interviews, data documentation and observations. This system was built with the aim to help the student enrollment process at LKP International College to be more efficient. System design uses UML models such as usecase diagrams and, class diagrams, activity diagrams. The programming languages used are PHP and MySQL databases. The results of hypothesis testing and benefit tests can be found that the difference in the average time of the student registration process before and after using the system is 19,888 minutes (before using the system) and 9,320 minutes (after using the system). With benefit testing obtained with excellent results with aimed that usability of 93.33%, learnability of 73.33%, eficiency of 95.83.