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Nurviana
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Peramalan Jumlah Produksi Padi Sawah Menggunakan Fuzzy Time Series Model Lee Di Kabupaten Langkat Fitri, Ayu Fitriana; Nurviana; Sari, Riezky Purnama
JURNAL GAMMA-PI Vol 6 No 1 (2024): Jurnal Gamma-Pi (Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika)
Publisher : Program Studi Matematika, Fakultas Teknik, Universitas Samudra. Langsa, Aceh.

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.33059/gamma-pi.v6i1.9693

Abstract

Di Provinsi Sumatera Utara produksi padi pada tahun 2022 mencapai 3,9 juta ton gabah kering giling (GKG). Produksi ini mengalami kenaikan sebesar 4,21% dibandingkan dengan tahun 2021.Salah satu kabupaten yang berada di provinsi Sumatera Utara adalah Kabupaten Langkat. Saat ini Kabupaten Langkat merupakan salah satu penghasil padi tertinggi ke-5 setelah Deli Serdang, Serdang Bedagai, Simalungun dan Tapanuli Utara. Perkembangan produksi tanaman padi sawah di Kabupaten Langkat dari 2018 sampai dengan 2022 relatif mengalami penurunan. Oleh karena itu, penulis tertarik untuk melakukan peramalan hasil produksi padi sawah di Kabupaten Langkat. Data yang digunakan adalah data tahunan yang diperoleh dari Badan Pusat Statistik Kabupaten Langkat. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui hasil peramalan hasil produksi padi sawah di Kabupaten Langkat. Metode yang digunakan adalah fuzzy time series model lee. Berdasarkan penelitian yang telah dilakukan untuk tahun 2023 menunjukkan hasil peramalan sebesar 305.306,7 ton. Dapat disimpulkan bahwa hasil model Lee dari peramalan jumlah produksi padi sawah di Kabupaten Langkat menggunakan fuzzy time series pada tahun selanjutnya adalah 305.306,7 ton dan tingkat keakuratan fuzzy time series model lee dalam memprediksikan jumlah produksi padi sawah di Kabupaten Langkat sebesar 2,560%.
PERAMALAN MENGGUNAKAN FUZZY TIME SERIES CHEN: Studi Kasus Curah Hujan Kota Langsa Andika, Feky; Nurviana; Sari, Riezky Purnama
Amalgamasi: Journal of Mathematics and Applications Vol. 1 No. 2 (2022): Amalgamasi: Journal of Mathematics and Applications
Publisher : Universitas Pasifik Morotai

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.55098/amalgamasi.v1.i2.pp79-86

Abstract

Peramalan merupakan metode yang memprediksi ketidakpastian masa yang akan datang sebagai upaya untuk mengambil keputusan yang lebih baik. Fuzzy time series adalah sebuah konsep yang dikenal dengan kecerdasan buatan yang di bentuk dalam nilai-nilai linguistikdan menghasilkan peramalah yang lebih akurat. Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk Meramalkan curah hujan di Kota Langsa menggunakan metode fuzzy times series Chen. Data yang digunakan adalah data bulanan yang diperoleh langsung dari BPS Kota Langsa. Metode penelitian ini menggunakan metode fuzzy times series Chen. Bedasarkan analisa data yang telah dilakukan untuk bulan Januari 2021 menunjukkan hasil peramalan sebesar 230. Dapat disimpulkan bahwa hasil dari analisis peramalan jumlah curah hujan di Kota Langsa menggunakan metodefuzzy time series pada bulan selanjutnya adalah 230
ANALISIS PENGARUH PELAYANAN PENDAFTARAN TANAH TERHADAP KEPUASAN MASYARAKAT PADA KANTOR PERTANAHAN KOTA LANGSA marlina, Marlina lubis; Nurviana
JURNAL GAMMA-PI Vol 7 No 2 (2025): Jurnal Gamma-Pi (Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika)
Publisher : Program Studi Matematika, Fakultas Teknik, Universitas Samudra. Langsa, Aceh.

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.33059/gamma-pi.v7i2.10088

Abstract

Land registration services are a form of government assistance aimed at facilitating the public in obtaining land ownership certificates. Residents of Langsa City perceive that the land registration process provides convenience and substantial benefits in managing their land certificates. However, the process of obtaining a land certificate often involves several challenges, such as incomplete documents, land disputes, complex administrative procedures, customary land issues, and other related problems.The purpose of this study is to analyze the quality of services provided by the Langsa City Land Office in relation to community satisfaction. The data used in this research are primary data obtained from questionnaires distributed to 30 respondents. The method applied is linear regression, supported by correlation coefficient tests and the coefficient of determination test.Based on the analysis, the level of community satisfaction with the performance of the Langsa City Land Office reaches 75%. Furthermore, land registration services contribute 14.2% to overall satisfaction. These findings indicate that the community of Langsa City considers the dissemination of information regarding land registration to be sufficiently satisfactory.
KAJIAN FAKTOR-FAKTOR PRODUKSI JERUK DENGAN REGRESI LINIER BERGANDA DI KABUPATEN KARO SUMATERA UTARA PADA TAHUN 2002-2021 Ginting, Amalia; Nurviana; Fairus
JURNAL GAMMA-PI Vol 7 No 2 (2025): Jurnal Gamma-Pi (Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika)
Publisher : Program Studi Matematika, Fakultas Teknik, Universitas Samudra. Langsa, Aceh.

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.33059/gamma-pi.v7i2.11714

Abstract

Karo Regency is recognized as one of the main citrus-producing regions in North Sumatra, contributing significantly to the local agricultural economy. However, citrus production in this area has fluctuated over the years, possibly due to variations in climatic conditions. This study aims to examine the extent to which climatic factors influence citrus production in Karo Regency. The analysis employed a multiple linear regression approach to identify the relationship between climatic variables and production outcomes. The research utilized secondary data obtained from relevant institutions, including citrus production records and climate data for the study period. Independent variables included temperature, humidity, rainfall, and the number of rainy days, while citrus production served as the dependent variable. The findings revealed that both jointly and individually, climatic factors had no significant effect on citrus production. The coefficient of determination (R²) of 0.211 indicates that only 21.1% of production variation is explained by the model. Consequently, future studies are encouraged to incorporate other determinants such as cultivation practices and farm management strategies
PENERAPAN MODEL VERHULST PADA JUMLAH PRODUKSI KELAPA SAWIT DI KOTA LANGSA Rihadatul Aishy; Nabilla, Ulya; Nurviana
JURNAL GAMMA-PI Vol 7 No 1 (2025): Jurnal Gamma-Pi (Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika)
Publisher : Program Studi Matematika, Fakultas Teknik, Universitas Samudra. Langsa, Aceh.

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.33059/gamma-pi.v7i1.11983

Abstract

Palm oil is one of the main commodities that plays a crucial role in supporting the regional economy, including in Langsa City. However, annual palm oil production has shown fluctuations, necessitating a mathematical model to understand and predict its growth pattern. This study aims to estimate the amount of palm oil production in Langsa City and to evaluate the accuracy of the estimation results using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) method. The data used consist of annual palm oil production from 2018 to 2024, obtained from the Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS) of Langsa City.The research stages include determining the carrying capacity (K) and growth rate (r), constructing the Verhulst logistic model, and calculating MAPE to assess model accuracy. The analysis results show that the estimated palm oil production in 2025 is 736 tons. The obtained MAPE value of 40.48% indicates that the model’s accuracy is still relatively low in predicting palm oil production. This may be due to the fluctuating nature of production data and the limited observation period. Nevertheless, the Verhulst logistic model remains a relevant initial approach to understanding the dynamics of palm oil production growth in Langsa City.
Peramalan Jumlah Pendaftaran Tanah Menggunakan Metode Exponential Smoothing Pada Kantor Pertanahan Kota Langsa Nurhadija; Sari, Riezky Purnama; Ulya Nabilla; Nurviana; Fairus
JURNAL GAMMA-PI Vol 7 No 2 (2025): Jurnal Gamma-Pi (Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika)
Publisher : Program Studi Matematika, Fakultas Teknik, Universitas Samudra. Langsa, Aceh.

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.33059/gamma-pi.v7i2.13370

Abstract

Co-Authors Amelia Andika, Feky Andini Aulia Dayanti, Selvy Dewi, Fransiska Fairus Fairuz Fajri, Rahmatul Fery Andika Fitri, Ayu Fitriana Ginting, Amalia Humeira Ika Rezvani Aprita Indah Permata Sari Kurnia La Ode Santiaji Bande marlina, Marlina lubis Muhammad Botek Muliani, Fitra Muliani, Fitria NABILA, ULYA Nabilla, Ulya Nafisah, Siti Rafa' Nakhe, A Nirmala Sari NUR ISNAINI ULFA Nurhadija Nurhatijah Purnama Sari, Riezky Rahmi Meutia, Rahmi Riezky Purnama Sari Rihadatul Aishy Saiman . Sari, R P Sari, Riezky Purnama Syair Tamara, W Taufik Nur Rahman Ulya Nabilla Wa Ode Yusria Zulvia Maika Letis