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All Journal Jurnal Ilmu Pertanian Indonesia JURNAL EKONOMI DAN KEBIJAKAN PEMBANGUNAN Jurnal Manajemen dan Agribisnis Jurnal Risalah Kebijakan Pertanian dan Lingkungan Jurnal Ekonomi Indonesia Bulletin of Economic Studies (BEST) Policy Brief Pertanian, Kelautan, dan Biosains Tropika Optimum: Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesian Journal of Fintech, Banking, and Financial Services
Syarifah Amaliah
Department Of Economics, Faculty Of Economics And Management, IPB University, Jl. Agatis, IPB Dramaga Campus, Bogor 16680, Indonesia
Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Humanities Earth & Planetary Sciences Economics, Econometrics & Finance Environmental Science Social Sciences

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Export efficiency and determinants of Indonesian spices exports to major destination countries Maya Aulia Ardini; Fahmi Salam Ahmad; Syarifah Amaliah
Optimum: Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Vol. 16 No. 1 (2026)
Publisher : Universitas Ahmad Dahlan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.12928/optimum.v16i1.14725

Abstract

Indonesian spice exports (HS 0904 to 0910) have been a major contributor to non-oil and gas exports. One issue related to spice exports is that their performance often fluctuates and does not truly reflect the "full potential" that can actually be achieved. Therefore, this study seeks to answer two questions: how efficient Indonesian spice exports are and what factors most determine their performance in eleven key destination markets from 2012 to 2023. The method used is the Stochastic Frontier Gravity Model (SFGM), which estimates the influence of economic factors and sources of inefficiency within a single framework. With this analytical method, export performance is not only assessed based on actual figures but also directly compared with their maximum potential. Based on the estimation results, Indonesia's real GDP, the real exchange rate, and economic distance are negatively related to spice exports. Conversely, partner country GDP and government effectiveness in destination countries have a positive and significant impact. The efficiency estimate shows a moderate figure, with an average of only 54.17%. Among the partner countries studied, India was the most efficient market (88.20%), while Japan ranked lowest (5.39%). The Covid-19 dummy factor did not prove statistically significant. Overall, these findings indicate wide differences in efficiency across destination countries. Therefore, future strategies should not simply focus on increasing export volumes but also focus on improving efficiency, strengthening logistics competitiveness, and expanding export destinations to maximize Indonesia's spice export performance.
Macroeconomic and Structural Determinants of Non-Performing Loans in ASEAN+4 Raisa Chairunnisa; Lukytawati Anggraeni; Syarifah Amaliah
Indonesian Journal of Fintech, Banking and Financial Services Vol. 1 No. 1 (2026): IJF, Vol. 1 No. 1, April 2026
Publisher : School of Business, IPB University (SB-IPB)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.17358/ijf.1.1.35

Abstract

Background: Non-performing loans (NPLs) are a critical indicator of banking sector fragility, reflecting deteriorating credit quality and posing systemic risks to financial stability. Despite extensive research in European and advanced economy contexts, empirical evidence on NPL determinants across the ASEAN+4 region remains limited, notwithstanding the region's deep economic interdependencies and recurring exposure to major global shocks.Purpose: This study identifies and empirically analyses the macroeconomic and structural-institutional factors influencing NPL dynamics across ASEAN+4 economies over the period 2013 to 2023.Design/Methodology/Approach: Static panel data analysis is employed across 10 economies, namely Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, the Philippines, Cambodia, China, Japan, South Korea, and India. Seven explanatory variables are examined: GDP growth, inflation, lending interest rate, unemployment rate, exchange rate, the Civil Justice Index from the World Justice Project, and a COVID-19 dummy variable. Model selection among Pooled Least Squares, Fixed Effect Model, and Random Effect Model was conducted via the Chow, Hausman, and Lagrange Multiplier tests, with the Random Effect Model selected as optimal. Data were sourced from CEIC Data, the World Bank World Development Indicators, and the World Justice Project, and processed using EViews 9.Findings/Result: Unemployment rate and lending interest rate exert positive and statistically significant effects on NPL ratios at the 1% significance level, with coefficients of 0.524 and 0.288 respectively, confirming that deteriorating labour market conditions and higher borrowing costs erode borrowers' debt-servicing capacity. Inflation exhibits a negative and significant effect at the 5% level (coefficient: 0.159), consistent with the debt-deflation channel whereby moderate inflation reduces the real burden of outstanding obligations. GDP growth, exchange rate, the Civil Justice Index, and the COVID-19 dummy do not demonstrate statistically significant effects within this specification. The model is statistically significant overall (F-statistic p-value: 0.0005; R-squared: 0.220).Conclusion: Labour market conditions and lending interest rates are the primary macroeconomic drivers of NPL accumulation across ASEAN+4 economies. Policymakers should prioritise employment-supportive measures and prudent interest rate management as pre-emptive credit risk containment tools. The non-significance of civil justice and pandemic variables suggests their effects may be mediated by country-level heterogeneity or require longer horizons to materialise.Originality/Value: This study contributes to the literature in three ways: it provides rare panel econometric evidence on NPL determinants for the underrepresented ASEAN+4 region; it jointly models macroeconomic and structural-institutional variables within a unified framework; and it explicitly incorporates the COVID-19 shock, advancing understanding of pandemic-era credit risk dynamics in emerging economies. Keywords:non-performing loans, macroeconomic determinants, civil justice, panel data, ASEAN+4
Co-Authors Ahmad, Fahmi Salam Alfian Helmi Arif Satria Azijah, Zulva Basri Bado, Basri Citra Ayni Kamaruddin Diah Retno Dwi Hastuti Eva Anggraini Fahmi Salam Ahmad Fazri, Muhammad Florika Malau Hotsawadi Idqan Fahmi Ika Yulisyawati Iskandar Panjaitan Iwan Hermawan Kurniawan Khristianto Lukytawati Anggraeni Masbantar Sangadji Maya Aulia Ardini Muhammad Firdaus Nugraheni, Sri Retno Wahyu Nunung Nuryartono Nur’aeni, Aisyah Probokawuryan, Mutiara Rahim, Abd Raisa Chairunnisa Rina Oktaviani Sahara Sahara Sane Pratinda, Wildan Nur Arrasyiid Satriani, Rini Setyawati, Dewi Sugema, Iman Syamsiar, Syamsiar Widyastutik Widyastutik Widyastutik Yenni Nur’aini Zain, Salma Luthfia