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Journal : Proceeding of the Electrical Engineering Computer Science and Informatics

Demand Forecasting Considering Actual Peak Load Periods Using Artificial Neural Network Octavia D.P. Yuan; A. N. Afandi; Hari Putranto
Proceeding of the Electrical Engineering Computer Science and Informatics Vol 5: EECSI 2018
Publisher : IAES Indonesia Section

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (326.008 KB) | DOI: 10.11591/eecsi.v5.1594

Abstract

Presently, electrical energy consumption continues to increase from year to year. Therefore, a short-term load forecasting is required that electricity providers can deliver continuous electrical energy to electricity consumers. By considering the estimation of the electrical load, the scheduling plan for operation and allocation of reserves can be managed well by the supply side. This study is focused on a forecasting of electrical loads using Artificial Neural Network (ANN) method considering a backpropagation algorithm model. The advantage of this method is to forecast the electrical load in accordance with patterns of past loads that have been taught. The data used for the learning is Actual Peak Load Period (APLP) data on the 150 kV system during 2017. Results show that the best network architecture is structured for the APLP Day and Night. Moreover, the momentum setting and understanding rate are 0.85 and 0.1 for the APLP Day. In contrast, 0.9 and 0.15 belong to the APLP Night. Based on the best network architecture, the APLP day testing process generates Mean Squared Error (MSE) around 0.04 and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) around 4.66%, while the APLP Night generates MSE in 0.16 and MAPE in 16.83%.
Co-Authors A.N. Afandi Abdullah Iskandar Syah Abdullah Iskandar Syah Abdullah Iskandar Syah Afriandi, Mohammad Rizal Agnest Irda Hanifatin Nur Auliya Ahmad Muzaqi, Safrizal Aji Prasetya Wibawa Amir Kurniawan Amir Kurniawan andi hermawan Aripriharta - Ayu Purwatiningsih Bagaskoro, Muhammad Cahyo David Anggara Putra Devani Aulia Zulfa Djoko Saryono Endah Setyo Wardani Fandi Akhmad Kurniawan Galih Prihatiandy Hakkun Elmunsyah Hasan Ismail Herri Akhmad Bukhori Joumil Aidil Saifuddin Kornelius Kamargo/Irawan Dwi Wahyono Kornelius Kamargo Lia Sugesti Lia Sugesti M Rodhi Faiz M. Rodhi Faiz M. Rodhi Faiz, M. Rodhi Maqhrisa Rusma Masdea Huda Milla Anifatul Rosada Moh. Zainul Falah Mohamad Rodhi Faiz Mohammad Rizal Afriandi Muhammad Cahyo bagaskoro Muhammad Fauzi Alasyari Muhammad Rafli Dwi Suryanto Muladi Nidhom, Ahmad Mursyidun Octavia D.P. Yuan Pamungkas, Mikael Abimanyu Putra Pramono Priharto, Dwi Purwatiningsih, Ayu Putra, David Anggara Rahman, Rizal Akbarudin Ramadhan, Moch. Rizal Riza Ahmad Zakaria Rochmawati, Diyah Satriani, Cahya Tifandi Septyawan, Eggy Catur Setiadi Cahyono Putro Setiawan, Toni Putra Agus Shandy Krisnawan Sisco Agustian Slamet Wibawanto Soraya Norma Mustika Stevanus Sendy K Sujito Sujito Sujito Sujito sunarti SUPRAYITNO Suwasono . Syaad Patmanthara Toni Putra Agus Setiawan Tri Atmadji Sutikno Wahyu Brian Pranama Wardani, Endah Setyo Widyatmoko, Tiksno Yohan Ardiansyah Yuan Octavia Yuan Octavia D.P Yuan Octavia D.P Yuan, Octavia D.P. Yuni Rahmawati Zaeni, Ilham Ari Elbaith Zidan, Rahmat Zory Satrio Nugroho