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All Journal JURNAL EKONOMI DAN KEBIJAKAN PEMBANGUNAN Jurnal Manajemen dan Agribisnis Signifikan : Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi Indonesian Journal of Business and Entrepreneurship (IJBE) Agro Ekonomi Jurnal Resolusi Konflik, CSR dan Pemberdayaan (Jurnal CARE) Jambura Equilibrium Journal Jurnal Ekonomi Indonesia Optimum: Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan AI, Big Data and Quantitative Methods in Finance
Ahmad, Fahmi Salam
Department Of Economics, Faculty Of Economics And Management, IPB University, Jl. Agatis, Kampus IPB Dramaga Bogor 16680, Indonesia
Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Social Sciences

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Structural Transformation and the Kuznets Hypothesis: Evidence from ASEAN Countries Sembiring, Eunike Novelia; Ahmad, Fahmi Salam
Jambura Equilibrium Journal Vol 8, No 1 (2026): Vol 8. No 1. January 2026
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Gorontalo

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.37479/jej.v8i1.34873

Abstract

According to the Kuznets hypothesis, economic development initially leads to higher income inequality, which then tends to decline as structural transformation and factor mobility increase. This dynamic remains particularly relevant for emerging ASEAN economies that are currently undergoing rapid structural changes in their production and employment structures. This study aims to analyze the relationship between economic greenness, economic sector structure, and income inequality in ASEAN countries, namely Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand. The data used is time series data, with the period adjusted based on the availability of each country. The analysis method used is descriptive analysis and Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL). The results show that Kuznets hypothesis is proven in Indonesia and Singapore. In addition, service sector share has a positive and significant influence on income inequality (Gini ratio) in Indonesia in the long run. However, the growing share of the service sector tends to raise inequality in Indonesia, suggesting that structural transformation which is not inclusively directed may widen income gaps despite economic growth.
Export efficiency and determinants of Indonesian spices exports to major destination countries Maya Aulia Ardini; Fahmi Salam Ahmad; Syarifah Amaliah
Optimum: Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Vol. 16 No. 1 (2026)
Publisher : Universitas Ahmad Dahlan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.12928/optimum.v16i1.14725

Abstract

Indonesian spice exports (HS 0904 to 0910) have been a major contributor to non-oil and gas exports. One issue related to spice exports is that their performance often fluctuates and does not truly reflect the "full potential" that can actually be achieved. Therefore, this study seeks to answer two questions: how efficient Indonesian spice exports are and what factors most determine their performance in eleven key destination markets from 2012 to 2023. The method used is the Stochastic Frontier Gravity Model (SFGM), which estimates the influence of economic factors and sources of inefficiency within a single framework. With this analytical method, export performance is not only assessed based on actual figures but also directly compared with their maximum potential. Based on the estimation results, Indonesia's real GDP, the real exchange rate, and economic distance are negatively related to spice exports. Conversely, partner country GDP and government effectiveness in destination countries have a positive and significant impact. The efficiency estimate shows a moderate figure, with an average of only 54.17%. Among the partner countries studied, India was the most efficient market (88.20%), while Japan ranked lowest (5.39%). The Covid-19 dummy factor did not prove statistically significant. Overall, these findings indicate wide differences in efficiency across destination countries. Therefore, future strategies should not simply focus on increasing export volumes but also focus on improving efficiency, strengthening logistics competitiveness, and expanding export destinations to maximize Indonesia's spice export performance.
Indonesia’s Financial System Stability: Effects of Domestic and Global Factors Syifa Rifa Rosyadah; Hermanto Siregar; Fahmi Salam Ahmad
AI, Big Data and Quantitative Methods in Finance Vol. 1 No. 1 (2026): ABQ Vol. 1 No. 1, April 2026
Publisher : School of Business, IPB University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.17358/abq.1.1.1

Abstract

Background: DFinancial system stability is essential for ensuring efficient financial intermediation and sustainable economic growth. With increasing global financial integration, the stability of a country’s financial system is no longer determined solely by domestic conditions, but is also influenced by global factors through various transmission channels such as capital flows, exchange rates, and financial markets.Purpose: This study aims to examine the effects of both domestic and global factors on Indonesia’s financial system stability and to distinguish their impacts in the short run and the long run.Design/methodology/approach: This study employs monthly time series data from July 2003 to November 2022. Financial system stability is proxied by the Financial Stress Index (FSI). The analysis uses the Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model and Error Correction Model (ECM) to capture both short-run dynamics and long-run relationships.Findings/Result: The results show that, in the short run, Indonesia’s financial system stability is significantly influenced by domestic lending rates, exchange rates, money supply, U.S. financial stress, and crisis conditions. In the long run, exchange rates, money supply, and foreign exchange reserves are found to have significant effects on financial system stability. The model also indicates a speed of adjustment toward long-run equilibrium of approximately 19.9 percent per period.Conclusion: Indonesia’s financial system stability is jointly determined by domestic and global factors, with distinct roles across time horizons. These findings highlight the importance of policy responses that are not only domestically oriented but also responsive to global economic and financial developments.Originality/value (State of the art): This study contributes to the literature by integrating domestic and global determinants of financial system stability within a unified ARDL-ECM framework. Unlike prior studies that typically focus on either domestic or external factors, this research provides a more comprehensive perspective by demonstrating the combined and time-varying influence of both, particularly in the context of a small open economy like Indonesia. Keywords:ARDL-ECM, domestic factors, financial stress index, financial system stability,  global factors
Co-Authors Alexandi, Muhammad Findi Alla Asmara Dominicus Savio Priyarsono Fazri, Muhammad Heni Hasanah Hermanto Siregar Hutagaol, Manuntun Paruliah Kurniawan Khristianto Maya Aulia Ardini Meliany, Birka Septy Muhammad Firdaus Nugraheni, Sri Retno Wahyu Probokawuryan, Mutiara Sahara Sahara Sahara Satriani, Rini Sembiring, Eunike Novelia Sibarani , David Richardo Sugema, Iman Syamsul Hidayat Pasaribu Syarifah Amaliah Syifa Rifa Rosyadah Widyastutik Yenni Nur 'Aini