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Mathematics Study Program, Faculty Of Mathematics And Natural Sciences, Udayana University
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Journal : Prosiding Seminar Nasional MIPA

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APLIKASI PEMODELAN FUZZY PADA INDIKATOR MAKROEKONOMI PROVINSI BALI I Komang Gde Sukarsa; I Putu Eka N. Kencana
Prosiding Seminar Nasional MIPA 2015: PROSIDING SEMINAR NASIONAL MIPA UNDIKSHA 2015
Publisher : Prosiding Seminar Nasional MIPA

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Abstract

Sebagian besar data indikator makroekonomi merupakan data deret waktu yang umumnya diprediksi menggunakan model runtun waktu yang dikelompokkan ke dalam kelas pemodelan stokastik atau menggunakan model-model pemulus. Penelitian ini ditujukan untuk melihat kemampuan pemodelan fuzzy yang tergolong ke dalam soft modeling pada kasus data makroekonomi Provinsi Bali pada periode tahun 1990 2013. Indikator makroekonomi yang diprediksi adalah Pendapatan Domestik Regional Bruto (PDRB), Konsumsi, Pembentukan Modal Tetap Domestik Bruto (PMTDB), dan Ekspor Neto Provinsi Bali pada periode tersebut. Kelas pemodelan fuzzy yang digunakan adalah model Fuzzy Time Series (FTS) orde satu dengan fungsi keanggotaan yang dipilih adalah fungsi keanggotaan segitiga fuzzy (fuzzy triangular number). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan model FTS memberikan tingkat keakurasian prediksi yang tinggi, terlihat dari nilai Average Forecasting Error Rate (AFER) yang rendah. Nilai-nilai AFER untuk prediksi out-of-sample dari indikator PDRB, Konsumsi, dan PMTDB masing-masing sebesar 0,20 persen; 2,15 persen; dan 1,08 persen. Komparasi model FTS dalam memprediksi PDRB dengan formula makroekonomi untuk menghitung PDRB menunjukkan model FTS mengungguli formula makroekonomi dengan nilai AFER model FTS sebesar 0,20 persen sedangkan formula makroekonomi memberikan nilai AFER sebesar 4,00 persen.Kata kunci: AFER, fuzzy modelling, fuzzy time series, model makroekonomiAbstractMost of macroeconomic indicators are time series data. In general, time series data were predicted by using time series models which are classified into stochastic model or by applying exponential model. This research aimed to elaborate the performance of fuzzy modeling which is grouped into soft modeling in predicting the macroeconomic indicators for period 1990 2013 of Bali Province. The predicted indicators were Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Consumption, Gross Domestic Investment (GDI) and Net Export of Bali Province for that period. We applied first order Fuzzy Time Series (FTS) with membership function had been chosen is Fuzzy Triangular Number (FTN). The result showed FTS model gave high prediction rate, observed from its Average Forecasting Error Rate (AFER). The values for GDP, Consumption, and GDI were 0.20 percent, 2.15 percent, and 1.08 percent, respectively. In addition, for out-of-sample forecast of GDP, FTS outperformed classical macroeconomic formula for counting it with AFER as much as 0.20 percent while the formula had 4.00 percent.Keywords: AFER, fuzzy modelling, Fuzzy Time Series, macroeconomic model
Co-Authors A. A. I. DWI FIBRIAYORA ADI PUTRAYASA AGUS EKA ARIESTA ALEXANDER HIRO WIBISONO ANAK AGUNG ISTRI AYU PRATAMI Anak Agung Putu Agung Suryawan Wiranatha ASTITI, Anak Agung Eka Putri Dewi Aulia Wicaksono Christine PETR Damanik, Veni Jean Gabriella Darmateja, I Made Sugita Desak Putu Eka Nilakusmawati DESAK PUTU PRAMI MEITRIANI Diana Diana DOMINGGAS TEO Driyandita, Bernadeta G. K. GANDHIADI G. K. GANDHIADI GEDE AGUS HENDRA YOGANGGA Gede Satria Suputra GUSTI AYU MADE ARNA PUTRI HANY DEVITA I GEDE HARDI KARMANA I GEDE SEKA SUYOGA I Gusti Ayu Made Srinadi I Gusti Ayu Oka Suryawardani I GUSTI NGURAH ARYA WANAYASA I KADEK TEGUH PRADANA I Ketut Satriawan I Ketut Surata I KOMANG GDE SUKARSA I KOMANG GEDE ANTARA I MADE ANOM ARIAWAN I MADE ARYA ANTARA I MADE DANNY DANANJAYA I Made Ramia Adnyana I Nyoman Widana I PUTU AGUS WIDHIANTARA I PUTU ARYA YOGA SUMADI I PUTU JERYANA I Putu Utama I Putu Winada Gautama I PUTU WINADA GAUTAMA I PUTU YUDANTA EKA PUTRA I Wayan Mertha I Wayan Rediyasa I Wayan Sumarjaya I Wayan Tika IDA AYU PRASETYA UTHAMI Ida Bagus Gde Pujaastawa Ida Bagus Kade Puja Arimbawa K. IMAMUDDIN KAMIL Isabel Divya Georgiana Walewangko JUEN LING KADEK BUDINIRMALA KADEK DWI FARMANI KADEK RISNA WITARI Ketut Jayanegara Komang Dharmawan LUH PUTU IDA HARINI MADE ARISTIAWAN JIWA ATMAJA MADE AYU DWI OCTAVANNY MADE PUTRI ARIASIH MADE SANJIWANI Made Susilawati Mahardika, Putu Harry MELINDA HERMANTO MOCH. ANJAS A MUHAMAD RIFAI MULIA YASMAN NGURAH GDE PRABA MARTHA Ni Kadek Emik Sapitri NI KADEK PUSPITAYANTI NI KADEK SETIAWATI Ni Ketut Tari Tastrawati NI LUH ARDILA KUSUMAYANTI Ni Luh Putu Ayu Fitriani Ni Luh Putu Suciptawati Ni Made Asih Ni Made Santiningsih NI MADE SUMA FRIDAYANI NI PUTU ANIK MAS RATNASARI NI WAYAN ARNI YANITA NI WAYAN EKA SURYA ARTINI NI WAYAN NINING ISMIRANTI NOVA SARI BARUS Putu Edi Dimas Saputra PUTU EKA SWASTINI Putu Harry Mahardika Putu Harry Mahardika PUTU NOPITA PURNAMA NINGSIH RAHMAD RAHMAD WIDODO Ratna Sari Widiastuti REYNALDO PANJI WICAKSONO SLAMET SAMSUL HIDAYAT SRI DIANTINI Tjokorda Bagus Oka TRISNA RAMADHAN VANIA RISKASARI YR VICTOR MALLANG Wijayakusuma, I Gusti Ngurah Lanang