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All Journal Journal of Business and Management The Indonesian Journal of Business Administration Jurnal Keuangan dan Perbankan JAM : Jurnal Aplikasi Manajemen Journal of Engineering and Management in Industrial System Journal of Accounting and Investment The Asian Journal of Technology Management (AJTM) Jurnal Ilmiah Manajemen dan Bisnis (JIMB) Syntax Literate: Jurnal Ilmiah Indonesia Journal of Economic, Bussines and Accounting (COSTING) JURNAL MANAJEMEN BISNIS Ekonomi dan Bisnis Jurnal Mantik Cakrawala Repositori Imwi JBMR: Journal of Business and Management Review Journal of Economics and Business UBS Warta Pengabdian Andalas: Jurnal Ilmiah Pengembangan Dan Penerapan Ipteks International Journal of Economic, Business, Accounting, Agriculture Management and Sharia Administration (IJEBAS) Journal of Social Research Malcom: Indonesian Journal of Machine Learning and Computer Science Journal Research of Social Science, Economics, and Management Eduvest - Journal of Universal Studies International Journal of Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Studies Amkop Management Accounting Review (AMAR) IIJSE Journal Integration of Management Studies ManBiz: Journal of Management and Business Jurnal Abdimas Mahakam Journal of Accounting Research, Utility Finance and Digital Assets (JARUDA)
Sylviana Maya Damayanti
School Of Business And Management, Institut Teknologi Bandung
Religion Aerospace Engineering Humanities Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Environmental Science Health Professions Industrial & Manufacturing Engineering Languange, Linguistic, Communication & Media Law, Crime, Criminology & Criminal Justice Medicine & Pharmacology Neuroscience Social Sciences Other

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Investment Modeling Algorithm for the 50 MW Sumbawa 3 Gas Engine Power Plant (PLTMG) Project: A Correlation-Aware, Risk-Adjusted Feasibility Framework Jonathan, Filbert; Damayanti, Sylviana Maya
MALCOM: Indonesian Journal of Machine Learning and Computer Science Vol. 6 No. 3 (2026): MALCOM July 2026
Publisher : Institut Riset dan Publikasi Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.57152/malcom.v6i3.2849

Abstract

The 50 MW PLTMG Sumbawa 3 project is included in the RUPTL 2025–2034 to strengthen the Tambora isolated subsystem, whose reserve margin declined to 0.8% in 2024 and 1.4% in 2025. PT PLN (Persero) currently evaluates investments using the Kelayakan Keuangan (KKF) framework, a deterministic Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model that ignores uncertainty and interdependence among key cost drivers. This study develops a four-layer investment evaluation framework combining strategic analysis (PESTEL, Porter’s Five Forces, SWOT, VRIO), deterministic DCF, sensitivity analysis, and Monte Carlo simulation with 10,000 iterations. Four stochastic variables, LNG price, IDR/USD exchange rate, HSD price, and fixed O&M cost, were modeled under independent and correlated assumptions. The deterministic evaluation indicates feasibility, with an NPV of IDR 276.85 billion, IRR of 9.13%, BCR of 1.03, and a 10.14-year payback period. However, Monte Carlo simulation reveals an 82.08% probability of negative NPV, with a mean NPV of negative IDR 1.42 trillion. The exchange rate and LNG price explain over 99% of the variance in NPV. Results support conditional project approval through LNG price hedging, tariff adjustment mechanisms, accelerated gasification, and mandatory correlation-aware Monte Carlo analysis for future LNG-based generation investments.
CREDIT ASSET QUALITY ANALYSIS AND FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE RECOVERY RECOMMENDATIONS FOR AN INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT-OWNED RURAL BANK: A CASE STUDY OF PT BPR SERANG (PERSERODA), 2020–2025 Barelvi Ghazy Daffa; Sylviana Maya Damayanti
International Journal of Economic, Business, Accounting, Agriculture Management and Sharia Administration (IJEBAS) Vol. 6 No. 5 (2026): October (ON-PROGRESS)
Publisher : CV. Radja Publika

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Abstract

Non-performing loans (NPL) among Indonesian Bank Perekonomian Rakyat (BPR, rural banks) rose nationally from 7.89% in 2022 to 11.75% in 2025, well above the 5% prudential guideline. PT BPR Serang (Perseroda), a rural bank wholly owned by the Serang Regency government, experienced a more severe deterioration: Net NPL rose from 3.86% in 2020 to 18.39% in 2025, Gross NPL reached 22.21%, Return on Assets (ROA) fell to 1.48%, and net profit declined from IDR 13.66 billion in 2022 to IDR 6.49 billion in 2025. This study examines the bank's credit asset quality over 2020–2025, investigates the internal and external factors driving its deterioration, evaluates the resulting impact on financial performance, and develops empirically grounded recovery recommendations. A single-case, sequential explanatory mixed-methods design was used, combining CAMEL-based gap analysis of secondary financial data against SEOJK No. 11/SEOJK.03/2022 thresholds and national industry averages with qualitative content analysis of semi-structured interviews with three key informants (Direktur Bisnis, Manajer Kredit, and Kepala Manajemen Risiko/Kepatuhan), and a supplementary Pearson correlation analysis of internal financial indicators. Findings indicate that structural deterioration in credit asset quality reduced both profitability and capital adequacy through four internal factors — high portfolio concentration in ASN (civil servant) payroll-deduction loans, underwriting that relies on payroll-deduction collection rather than fully verified repayment capacity, insufficient oversight of broker-mediated financing, and an early-warning system that functions as a monitoring dashboard rather than a triggered escalation mechanism — compounded by intensifying competition from larger payroll banks and volatility in ASN allowance disbursement. A supplementary correlation analysis (n=6 annual observations, descriptive only) found the loan-to-deposit ratio to be the most robust internal correlate of Net NPL. Six recovery recommendations are proposed using the Robbins and Pearce (1992) retrenchment/recovery turnaround model, mapped to the four rencana tindak categories of SEOJK No. 11/SEOJK.03/2022: credit risk reduction, governance improvement, capital reinforcement, and financial performance improvement. Credit policy is one operational instrument within this broader recovery package rather than a substitute for it.
Co-Authors Aaron Kevin Sammy Tatengkeng Adrian Satrioutomo Afan Wahyu Syafii Arinda Mentari Putri Arry Akhmad Arman Arry Akhmad Arman Astari, Yen Syifa Aulia Rinald Muhammad, Aulia Rinald Barelvi Ghazy Daffa Bayu Indra Wibiksana Bo, Liu Danial David Anwar Dini Lestari Dini Lestari, Dini Dwiarso, Adhi Priyo Edward Veldman Erman Arif Sumirat Erman Arif Sumirat Erman Sumirat Fahmmy Herdiansyah Heryadi Fakhru Umam Firmansyah Arifin, Firmansyah Gatot Yudoko Gerry Julian Agusty, Gerry Julian Gina Dwi Jayanthi, Gina Dwi Handayani, Fanty Haris Santoso Herlien Dwiarti Soemari Hidavat, Agustini Hidayat Ihsan Abditama, Hidayat Ihsan Indra Wibiksana, Bayu Irma Damajanti Isrochmani Murtaqi Isrochmani Murtaqi Jagat Prirayani Jagat Prirayani Jane Julia Mulyono Jonathan, Filbert Jota, Astrid Laregan Karenina, Melita Jenar Kevin Hanafi Kinsenary Tjendrasa Lubis, Khayruna Maryadi, Martya Putri Mico Suryo Atmahadi Muhaimin Hasbi Muhammad Yusuf Ali Mulya Amri Mulyono, Jane Julia Nadhila Dzikrina Yusuf Nugraha Yanureza Raeputranto Nugroho, Edwin Adi Octaviani Ratna Sari Santoso Oeshya Lubis, Rizki Padmodipoero, Faya Daffani Awinatama Pratama, Aditya Firza Purwaningrum, Rr Diah Asih Putranto Wicaksono, Adhi Putri, Arinda Mentari Putri, Gaitsa Farah Zahira Ralang Argi Barus Richlah Nia Rico Wanardijaya Rifqi, Audi Rizaldi Zakarias Rizky Andri Ulaan, Aldi Rohmat Agung Sholehuddin, Rohmat Agung Rupiani, Dewi Salsabilla, Zahra Samsu Wibowo, Putri Maharani Santoso, Octaviani Ratna Sari Saraya, Getha Senator Kramadibrata, Senator Siahaan, Uke Marius Subiakto Soekarno Subiakto Soekarno Sudarso Kaderi Wiryono Sumirat, Erman Arif Syaputra, Arifa Rizki Theodorus Tio Wibowo Tinton S, Bonifacius Perdana Turas Hari Mukti, Turas Hari Uke Marius Siahaan Umam, Fakhru Vinsensius Willson Limantoro Wicaksana, Pramudya Wikaningtyas, Pratiwi Yudha Nugraha Wibisana, Yudha Nugraha Yudi Abdillah Sobrizal Yunika Adiyono Zico Andrea Aripratama