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ANALISIS PREDIKSI JUMLAH PENDUDUK DI KOTA PASURUAN MENGGUNAKAN METODE ARIMA Mardiyah, Ilmiatul; Dianita Utami, Wika; Rini Novitasari, Dian Candra; Hafiyusholeh, Moh.; Sulistiyawati, Dewi
BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Vol 15 No 3 (2021): BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan
Publisher : PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (553.131 KB) | DOI: 10.30598/barekengvol15iss3pp525-534

Abstract

Laju pertumbuhan penduduk di Kota Pasuruan pada tahun 2019 sebesar 0.68% dengan jumlah penduduk 200.422 jiwa. Tingginya pertumbuhan penduduk dapat mempengaruhi kepadatan penduduk. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk memprediksi pertumbuhan penduduk Kota Pasuruan menggunakan metode ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average). Metode ARIMA adalah cara prediksi data deret waktu yang memiliki tiga model, yaitu AR (Autoregressive), MA (Moving Average), ARMA (Autoregressive Moving Average). Metode ini memiliki parameter (p,d,q) dapat diketahuidari plot ACF dan PACF untuk memastikan model yang akan digunakan untuk prediksi. Dalam penelitian ini data yang digunakan merupakan data penduduk Kota Pasuruan tahun 1983 sampai tahun 2019 sejumlah 37 data. Dari data tersebut didapatkan ARIMA model (1,1,1) dengan jumlah penduduk Kota Pasuruan pada tahun 2020 adalah 203.221 jiwa, didapatkan nilai MSE 10542507.06 dan MAPE 1.52%.
UTILIZATION OF OPEN EDUCATION RESOURCES IN MORAL CREED SUBJECTS AT MA DARUL ULUM BOJONEGORO Laila, Siti Alfin Nur; Hamid, Abdulloh; Hafiyusholeh, Moh.
PROCEEDING OF INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON EDUCATION, SOCIETY AND HUMANITY Vol 2, No 2 (2024): Third International Conference on Education, Society and Humanity
Publisher : PROCEEDING OF INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON EDUCATION, SOCIETY AND HUMANITY

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar

Abstract

Open Education Resources is a manifestation of the development of learning media in the modern era, open learning resources aim to improve the quality of education and facilitate the learning process. This type of research is fiel d research, namely research in which data is taken and carried out in the field by systematically analyzing and presenting facts about the state of the research object. This research was conducted using qualitative research methods. The aim of this research is to determine the competency, supporting and inhibiting factors of Aqidah Akhlak teachers at MA Darul Ulum Bojonegoro in utilizing Open Education Resources (OER) in the subject of Aqidah Akhlak. The results of the research found that the competence of Aqidah Akhlak teachers at MA Darul Ulum Bojonegoro was quite good, by utilizing learning resources searched via the internet they could integrate curriculum, modules and other learning tools. Supporting factors for using OER are easy access to open learning resources, freedom to innovate, opportunities for fellow teachers to collaborate in improving the quality of education, and teaching materials that can be adapted to the curriculum. The inhibiting factors in using OER are limited media tools, weak internet networks, teacher teaching habits, and limited time in using open learning resources
Analysis of Regency/City Human Development Index Data in East Java Through Grouping Using Hierarchical Agglomerative Clustering Method Alfirdausy, Roudlotul Jannah; Ulinnuha, Nurissaidah; Hafiyusholeh, Moh.
Sistemasi: Jurnal Sistem Informasi Vol 12, No 3 (2023): Sistemasi: Jurnal Sistem Informasi
Publisher : Program Studi Sistem Informasi Fakultas Teknik dan Ilmu Komputer

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.32520/stmsi.v12i3.2959

Abstract

The evaluation of human development is typically done using the Human Development Index (HDI), which measures the level of development in terms of various essential aspects of quality of life. In the case of East Java, the HDI is categorized as high. However. the distribution of HDI among the Regencies/Cities in East Java is still uneven. Therefore, it becomes necessary to cluster the districts/cities based on their HDI and the achievement of each indicator contributing to the HDI. Clustering is a data analysis technique used to group similar data together. Hierarchical agglomerative clustering is one of the methods used for this purpose. The aim of this study is to provide a reference for the government to understand the distribution of characteristic groupings among the districts/cities based on their HDI profiles in East Java. The analysis of East Java's HDI data for 2021 revealed that the best method and cluster was obtained using Average Linkage, with a Cophenetic coefficient value of 0.8105891, resulting in two clusters. The cluster with the highest Silhouette coefficient value of 0.6196077 comprised 34 districts/cities, classified as the low cluster, while the high cluster consisted of four cities/regencies.
SISTEM PENDUKUNG KEPUTUSAN PENERIMAAN BEASISWA BIDIKMISI DI UINSA DENGAN MENGGUNAKAN ANALYTICAL HIERARCHY PROCESS (AHP) Iflakhah, Mila; Hafiyusholeh, Moh.
AXIOM : Jurnal Pendidikan dan Matematika Vol 10, No 2 (2021)
Publisher : Universitas Islam Negeri Sumatera Utara Medan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30821/axiom.v10i2.8837

Abstract

Abstrak:            Beasiswa merupakan pemberian bantuan biaya pendidikan kepada mahasiswa yang mampu dalam bidang akademik tetapi tidak dalam perekonomian. Namun masih sering terjadi kendala dalam pemrosesan seleksi pendaftar beasiswa, yaitu banyaknya kriteria yang harus diperhatikan dan banyaknya data pendaftar sehingga pengambilan keputusan menjadi relatif lebih sulit. Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah memberikan alternatif dalam pengambilan keputusan penerima bantuan beasiswa untuk mahasiswa fakultas sains dan teknologi UINSA dengan menggunakan metode Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). Data yang diolah adalah data primer yang diperoleh dari angket. Data yang telah terkumpul selanjutnya dianalisis dengan matriks perbandingan berpasangan untuk menentukan nilai eigen dan vektor eigen. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa dari 39 pendaftar diperoleh 12 pendaftar yang menjadi prioritas dalam mendapatkan beasiswa Bidikmisi. Berturut-turut mahasiswa dengan kode Z1, Z2, Z5, Z7, Z10, Z19, Z20, Z21, Z23, Z29, Z32, Z35 dengan masing-masing bobot sebesar 0.34%, 0.27%, 0.27%, 0.28%, 0.36%, 0.33%, 0.29%, 0.31%, 0.34%, 0.29%, 0.27%, 0.35%. Kata Kunci:Vektor Eigen, Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), Nilai Eigen Abstract:The scholarship is the provision of tuition assistance to students who are capable of academics but have difficulties economically. However, some obstacles are often found throughout the screening process of scholarship applicants, such as the number of criteria to fulfill and the number of registrant data that results in difficulties in making a decision. This study aims to provide an alternative in decision making on the screening process of scholarship applicants for students from the Faculty of Science and Technology at the Universitas Islam Negeri Sunan Ampel by using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). The data processed are from the primary data obtained from questionnaires. The data obtained were analyzed by using a pairwise comparison matrix to determine the eigenvalues and eigenvectors. The results indicate that of 39 registrants, 12 of them became a priority in getting the Bidikmisi scholarship. Consecutively, students with codes Z1, Z2, Z5, Z7, Z10, Z19, Z20, Z21, Z23, Z29, Z32, Z35 have the score of 0.34%, 0.27%, 0.27%, 0.28%, 0.36%, 0.33%, 0.29%, 0.31%, 0.34%, 0.29%, 0.27%, 0.35%. Keywords:Eigenvector, Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), Eigenvalue
Prediksi Distribusi Air Perusahaan Daerah Air Minum (PDAM) Tirta Dharma Kota Pasuruan Menggunakan Metode Jaringan Syaraf Tiruan Backpropagation Agustina, Dwi; Hafiyusholeh, Moh.; Fanani, Aris; Prasetijo, Dono
Jurnal PROCESSOR Vol 18 No 1 (2023): Jurnal Processor
Publisher : LPPM Universitas Dinamika Bangsa

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.33998/processor.2023.18.1.697

Abstract

Every human being has the right to use clean water which is the most important resource for daily needs. The author wants to predict PDAM water distribution using the backpropagation neural network method, so that it can help PDAM Tirta Dharma Pasuruan city to find out the estimated water distributed to customers for the next period. This research was conducted using water distribution data obtained directly from PDAM Pasuruan City from January 2019 to December 2021. The architectures used in this study are 4-2-1, 4-4-1, and 4-8-1, with architectures the best is 4-2-1, which has an accuracy rate of 100%, a learning rate of 0.1, a target error of 0.001, and a maximum epoch of 1000. The number of predictions for the distribution of water in PDAM Tirta Dharma, Pasuruan City in 2022 was 6,829,056, in 2023 there were 6,865. 358, in 2024 there will be 6,867,817, and in 2025 there will be 6,868,785.
Peramalan Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB) Industri Furnitur di Indonesia Menggunakan Metode Double Exponential Smoothing-Holt Alfinatuzzahro Alfinatuzzahro; Wika Dianita Utami; Moh. Hafiyusholeh; Moh. Lail Kurniawan
Algoritma : Jurnal Matematika, Ilmu pengetahuan Alam, Kebumian dan Angkasa Vol. 2 No. 3 (2024): Algoritma : Jurnal Matematika, Ilmu pengetahuan Alam, Kebumian dan Angkasa
Publisher : Asosiasi Riset Ilmu Matematika dan Sains Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.62383/algoritma.v2i3.64

Abstract

Furniture raw materials are still a major challenge in the industry, in line with the wishes of consumers to get good quality raw materials and soaring export demand, so there is a need for a control process to monitor the value of products using forecasting. The purpose of this study was to predict gross domestic product in the furniture industry in Indonesia in 2022. This study used secondary data on the quarterly trend of gross domestic product in the furniture industry in Indonesia 2010-2021 taken from the research industry data processed by BPS and Bank Indonesia, The method used is Double Exponential Smoothing-Holt. The results of the calculation using the double exponential smoothing-holt method obtained a value of α of 0.658 and β of 0.008 where the forecasting results for the 2022 period, namely the 1 quarter of 7.602 billion rupiah, quarter 2 of 7.676 billion rupiah, quarter 3 of 7.749 billion rupiah, and quarter 4 of 7.822 billion rupiah. Where the MAPE value is 0.737% which means forecasting has very good results.
Analysis of Inflation Rates During and After the COVID-19 Pandemic Using the K-Means Clustering Method and Kruskal-Wallis Test Fadhila, Riska Nuril; Ulinnuha, Nurissaidah; Hafiyusholeh, Moh
Jurnal Fourier Vol. 14 No. 2 (2025)
Publisher : Program Studi Matematika Fakultas Sains dan Teknologi UIN Sunan Kalijaga Yogyakarta

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.14421/fourier.2025.142.56-67

Abstract

Inflation occurs when excessive demand results in an overall increase in the prices of goods and services. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the inflation rate in Indonesia leveled off due to the weakening economy. However, in 2022, there was a spike in post-COVID-19 inflation due to increased public demand as pandemic conditions improved. Stable inflation is a requirement for sustainable economic growth and improving people's welfare. In handling inflation problems in various regions, variables and unique circumstances in each region are very important. This research aims to determine whether significant differences exist in the clustering of inflation rates in Indonesia during and after the COVID-19 pandemic. The research results using the Kruskal-Wallis test and the K-Means method obtained that the clustering of inflation rates with k=2 provides good results, as indicated by the Silhouette Coefficient value of 0.66. In addition, there is a significant difference between the current (2020-2021) and post (2022-2023) years of COVID-19 as evidenced by the Kruskal-Wallis test with a p-value < 0.05.
OPTIMIZATION OF PARAMETERS IN MEWMV AND MEWMA CONTROL CHARTS FOR CLEAN WATER QUALITY CONTROL AT PP KRAKATAU TIRTA GRESIK Hafiyusholeh, Moh.; Khaulasari, Hani; Firmansyah, Fery; Ulinnuha, Nurissaidah
BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Vol 20 No 1 (2026): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Application
Publisher : PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/barekengvol20iss1pp0729-0742

Abstract

Water is a vital resource whose quality directly affects public health. In Gresik Regency, water treatment processes must be closely monitored, particularly during production. PT PP Krakatau Tirta, a key provider of clean water in the region, plays a strategic role in treating raw water from the heavily polluted Bengawan Solo River. Ensuring that the treated water consistently meets health standards is crucial, highlighting the need for an effective process. This study aims to evaluate the clean water production process and assess the process capability in maintaining the quality of water produced by PT PP Krakatau Tirta Gresik. Laboratory data on key parameters, including pH, dissolved iron, and total dissolved solids, were collected daily from November 25, 2022, to May 31, 2023. These mandatory indicators were analyzed using Multivariate Exponentially Weighted Moving Variance (MEWMV) and Moving Average (MEWMA) control charts to assess process performance. A key contribution of this research lies in optimizing smoothing parameters to enhance control chart performance. Sixteen combinations of (ω,λ) were tested for MEWMV, with the optimal configuration found at (λ = 0.4) and (ω = 0.4), indicating that process variability is statistically stable. For MEWMA, nine values of λ were evaluated, and the optimal weight (λ=0.9) was identified as optimal, yielding a stable process mean after removing two out-of-control points. PT PP Krakatau Tirta, which plays a strategic role in treating raw water from the polluted Bengawan Solo River, was selected as a case study to evaluate the effectiveness of advanced monitoring methods. The results indicate that its clean water production process is well-controlled and capable, with water quality consistently meeting health and safety standards.
Implementasi Chi-Square dan Oversampling Pada Klasifikasi Kesehatan Janin dengan Support Vector Machine Wahyudi, Sharenada Norisdita; Ulinnuha, Nurissaidah; Hafiyusholeh, Moh
TELKA - Telekomunikasi Elektronika Komputasi dan Kontrol Vol 11, No 3 (2025): TELKA
Publisher : Jurusan Teknik Elektro UIN Sunan Gunung Djati Bandung

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.15575/telka.v11n3.327-337

Abstract

Pemantauan kesehatan janin menjadi aspek penting karena hal tersebut merupakan bentuk antisipasi terkait deteksi potensi patologis yang berkemungkinan membahayakan janin maupun ibu hamil. Sebagaimana dilansir dalam website resmi UNICEF, setidaknya terdapat 2,3 juta bayi meninggal pada bulan pertama kelahiran dengan 90% dari total keseluruhan merupakan kasus kematian bayi didalam kandungan pada masa kehamilan diatas 20 minggu. Selain membahayakan bayi, kesehatan janin juga berdampak pada keselamatan ibu hamil. Oleh karena itu, perlu dilakukan suatu usaha mitigasi resiko guna memperkecil potensi kematian janin dengan mendeteksi kesehatan janin dengan melakukan klasifikasi dengan algoritma SVM. Data yang digunakan pada penelitian ini adalah hasil pemeriksaan kandungan berupa data cardiotocography, berisikan 2126 data yang berisikan 21 fitur yang terkategorikan menjadi 3 kelas yaitu 1665 normal, 295 kelas suspect dan 176 kelas pathologic. Berdasarkan perbedaan yang cukup signifikan pada jumlah data ditiap kelas, dilakukan balancing data dengan metode Synthetic Minority Over-Sampling Technique (SMOTE). Selain itu, dilakukan seleksi fitur dengan menggunakan Chi-Square pada 21 fitur yang kemudian didapati 12 fitur terpilih untuk diklasifikasikan menggunakan algoritma SVM. Skema klasifikasi dilakukan dengan beberapa tahapan, dan didapati bahwa penambahan seleksi fitur Chi-Square dan SMOTE berhasil meningkatkan akurasi klasifikasi menjadi 98%, dengan nilai presicion sebesar 99%, recall 98% dan F-1 Score sebesar 98%. Fetal health monitoring is an important aspect because it forms for detect potential pathologies that may endanger fetus and pregnant mother. As reported on UNICEF, at least 2.3 million babies die in the first month of birth with 90% of the total being cases of intrauterus fetal death. In addition to endangering the baby, fetal health also has an impact on pregnant mother. As an effort to minimize the potential and risk of fetal death, is classify the health status of the fetus using the SVM algorithm. The data used in this study are gynecological results in the field of cardiotocography data, containing 2126 data that have been categorized into 3 classes, namely normal, suspect and pathologic classes. Cardiotocography data in this study was included 2,126 observations distributed across 21 features grouped into three categories: 1,665 normal, 295 suspect, and 176 pathological. Given the significant variation in the number of observations across each category, a data balancing technique, known as the Synthetic Minority Over-Sampling Technique (SMOTE), was employed to address this imbalance. Furthermore, a feature selection process was implemented, employing the Chi-Square method on the 21 features. This method identified 12 features that were subsequently classified using the SVM algorithm. The classification scheme was executed in multiple stages, and it was observed that the incorporation of both Chi-Square and SMOTE feature selection led to a substantial enhancement in classification accuracy, reaching 98%, accompanied by a 99% precision value, 98% recall, and an 98% F-1 score.
Model Regresi Linier Berganda Dalam Menganalisis Faktor-Faktor Urbanisasi Di Jawa Timur Anggraini, Octavia Putri; Ulinnuha, Nurissaidah; Hafiyusholeh, Moh
Jambura Journal of Probability and Statistics Vol 6, No 2 (2025): Jambura Journal of Probability and Statistics
Publisher : Department of Mathematics, Universitas Negeri Gorontalo

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.37905/jjps.v6i2.28446

Abstract

Urbanization occurs when population increases rapidly, encouraging individuals to migrate from villages to big cities. This phenomenon is triggered by the availability of wider employment opportunities and easier access to resources and technology. However, urbanization also has several negative impacts on the environment, such as reducing the ability to create a comfortable and healthy environment for city residents. This study aims to analyze the factors that influence urbanization in East Java Province using multiple linear regression. The data used is quantitative and was obtained from the East Java Provincial Statistics Agency in 2024. The variables analyzed include poverty levels, security levels, health, education, and unemployment rates. The partial analysis results indicate that the Education Ratio variable has a significant influence on urbanization in East Java, with a coefficient of determination value of 54.1\%. These findings are expected to contribute to the formulation of more targeted development policies in managing the pace of urbanization. 
Co-Authors Abd. Rachman Assegaf Abdulloh Hamid Abdulloh Hamid Adyanti, Deasy Alfiah Agus Arianto Ahmad Hanif Asyhar Ahmad Zaenal Arifin Akbar, Fadilah Alfinatuzzahro Alfinatuzzahro Alfirdausy, Roudlotul Jannah Ambadar, Panreshma Rizkha Anggraini, Octavia Putri Aris Fanani Aris Fanani Azizatul Mualimah Binar Rahmawati Dwi Prihatni Aliek Deasy Alfiah Adyanti Dian C. R. Novitasari Dian C. Rini Novitasari Dian C. Rini Novitasari Dian Yuliati Dianita Utami, Wika Dwi Agustina Eka Alifia Kusnanti Emi Fatchurin Fadhila, Riska Nuril Fahriza Novianti Fajar Setiawan Fajar Setiawan FAJAR SETIAWAN Fajar Setiawan Fanani, Aris Fery Firmansyah Fitria Febrianti Ghaluh Indah Permata Sari Gita Purnamasari R Hani Khaulasari Hanni Garminia I Ketut Budayasa ian Candra Rini Novitasari Iflakhah, Mila Iftitah Ardiwira Pramesti Irkhana Indaka Zulfa Izzatul Aliyyah L.N. Desinaini Laila, Siti Alfin Nur Lubab, Ahmad Mardiyah, Ilmiatul Mif'atul Mahmudah Moh. Hartono Moh. Lail Kurniawan Monike Febriyani Faris Nafi'ah Darojat, Umi Sarah Nanang Widodo Novitasari, Dian C Rini Nur Faujiyah Nurissaidah Ulinnuha Prasetijo, Dono Pudji Astuti Putri Rahmawati Putroue Keumala Intan Rini Novitasari, ian Candra Ririn Komaria Safira Yasmin Amalutfia Saputra, Yahya Vigo Tri Sari, Dian Candra Rini Novita Silvie Afifatuz Zulfah Siti Lailiyah Sulistiyawati, Dewi Tatag Yuli Eko Siswono Unix Izyah Arfianti Wahyudi, Sharenada Norisdita Widyastuti, Naumi Wika Dianita Utami Wika Dianita Utami Wika Dianita Utami Yanuwar Reinaldi Yuniar Farida Yuyun Monita Zainullah Zuhri