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All Journal Pythagoras: Jurnal Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika Jurnal Matematika Jurnal Ilmu Dasar Jurnal Sains dan Seni ITS Jurnal Gaussian IPTEK Journal of Science CAUCHY: Jurnal Matematika Murni dan Aplikasi Journal of Regional and City Planning Prosiding Seminar Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematik Jurnal Matematika Sains dan Teknologi Jurnal Teknik Industri: Jurnal Keilmuan dan Aplikasi Teknik Industri Jambura Journal of Mathematics Jurnal Ilmiah Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika (JMP) Inferensi Berkala Penelitian Hayati Sewagati Journal of Research on Community Engagement
Purhadi Purhadi
Departemen Statistika Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember
Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Arts Humanities Biochemistry, Genetics & Molecular Biology Civil Engineering, Building, Construction & Architecture Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Education Engineering Environmental Science Immunology & microbiology Industrial & Manufacturing Engineering Languange, Linguistic, Communication & Media Materials Science & Nanotechnology Mathematics Medicine & Pharmacology Public Health Social Sciences Transportation Other

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Journal : IPTEK Journal of Science

 1 
Calibrating Weather Forecast using Bayesian Model Averaging and Geostatistical Output Perturbation Muhammad Luthfi; Sutikno Sutikno; Purhadi Purhadi
IPTEK Journal of Science Vol 3, No 1 (2018)
Publisher : Lembaga Penelitian dan Pengabdian kepada Masyarakat

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (465.39 KB) | DOI: 10.12962/j23378530.v3i1.a3565

Abstract

Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) has not yet been able to produce the weather forecast accurately. In order to overcome that, one approach could be taken is ensemble postprocessing. Ensemble is a combination of several methods to improve its accuracy and precision yet still possesses underdispersive nature. Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) is intended to calibrate the ensemble prediction and create more reliable interval, though, does not consider spatial correlation. Unlike BMA, Geostatistical Output Perturbation (GOP) reckons spatial correlation among many locations altogether. Analysis applied to calibrate the temperature forecast at eight meteorological sites within Jakarta, Bogor, Tangerang and Bekasi (Jabotabek) are BMA and GOP. The ensemble members of BMA are the prediction of PLS, PCR, and Ridge. For training period over 30 days and based on some assessment indicators, BMA is better than GOP in terms of accuracy, precision, and calibration
Parameter Estimation of Smith Model Max-Stable Process Spatial Extreme Value (Case-Study: Extreme Rainfall Modelling in Ngawi Regency) Siti Azizah; Sutikno Sutikno; Purhadi Purhadi
IPTEK Journal of Science Vol 2, No 1 (2017)
Publisher : Lembaga Penelitian dan Pengabdian kepada Masyarakat

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (761.011 KB) | DOI: 10.12962/j23378530.v2i1.a2255

Abstract

The unpredictable extreme rainfall can affect flood. Prediction of extreme rainfall is needed to do, so that the efforts to preventing the flood can be effective. One of the methods that can predict the extreme rainfall is the Spatial Extreme Value (SEV) with the Max-Stable Process (MSP) approach. The important purpose of SEV is calculated of return level (the extreme value prediction). The calculation of return level depends on parameter estimation in that method. This research discusses about parameter estimation of the Spatial Extreme Value Max-Stable Process especially Smith model. Parameter estimation was performed using Maximum Composite Likelihood Estimation (MCLE) method and Maximum Pairwise Likelihood Estimation (MPLE) method. The result of estimation using this method is not closed form, it must be continued by using numerical iteration method. The iteration method used in this research is Broyden-Fletcher Goldfarb-Shanno (BFGS) Quasi Newton, which is faster than other methods to achieve convergence. The result of parameter estimation applied to the rainfall data of Ngawi Regency which is the Regency with the largest rice production in East Java Province (the province with the largest rice farm in Indonesia). Based on the results of data analysis obtained trend surface model (s) = 2,794 + 0,242 v(s); (s) = 1,8196  + 0,1106 v(s); (s) = 1,012 with goodness criterion model Takeuchi Information Criterion (TIC) 26237,62. Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) based on 20 testing data is 32,078 and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) is 27,165%
Co-Authors Abima Aunur Rochman Achmad Choiruddin Affanda Abdul Hakim Aminullah Agus Suharsono Alia Lestari Alifa Silfi Mufidah Andriana Yoshinta Herindrawati Angga Dwi Mulyanto Annisa Auliya Rahman Arrafi Dwiargatra Bambang Widjanarko Otok Barep Adji Widhi Pangestu Brianika Irawati Choiruddin, Achmad Cindy Cahyaning Astuti Diah Puspito Wulandari Dina Oktafia Sulistyani Dinar Ariana Viestri Dinarta Dinarta Hanum Hanum Efta Dhartikasari Priyana Eriska Evadianti Ernawati Ernawati Esti Wulandari Fa'rifah, Riska Yanu Fefy Dita Sari Feni Ira Puspita, Feni Ira Fitria Nur Maghfiroh Fitria Nurul Alfariz Fitriarma Putri Santoso Fittrofin Amalia Farisa Gressa Widha Audrina Hani Khaulasari Hargandi, Priyanka Ratulangi Harmin Sulitiyaning Titah Harun Al Azies Hasbi Yasin Herni Anggi Riski Rahayuning Heru Purwanto I Dewa Ayu Ratih Weda Iswara I Nyoman Latra I Nyoman Latra I Nyoman Latra I Nyoman Latra Ika Wuryanti Febrina Wuryanti Irfan Wahyudi Irhamah - Islamiati, Mawadah Putri Ita Noviana Jatikusuma, Andhika Jauhara Rana Budiani Jerry D. T. Purnomo Lucy Dian Puspitasari Luh Eka Suryani Madu Ratna Mahestri, Alea Erdinna Makkulau Makkulau Makkulau Makkulau Makkulau Makkulau Maudi Pramedia Putri Meylita Sari Muhamad Adryanta Muhammad Luthfi muhammad mashuri Mulyaputri, Rifna Fadhilah Nendy Septi Arniva Ni Putu Lisa Ernawatiningsih Nina Fauziah Rachmah Nindya Kemala Astuti Nur Iriawan Nur Lailiyah Nurina Hayu Ratri Pertiwi, Dhea Mutiara Rahmania Azwarini Rahmawati Erma Standsyah Rahmawati Pane Rahmi Amelia Ratih Kumala Puspa Nusantara Retno Anggarini Rida Dwi Lestari Rizwan Arisandi, Rizwan Royyanah, Atika Nur Ruslan Ruslan Ruslan Santi Wulan Purnami Shofi Andari Shofi Andari Siti Azizah Sony S Sony Sunaryo Sri Nurhatika Sri Pingit W Sri Pingit Wulandari Sri Pingit Wulandari Suhartono Suhartono Suprianto Simanjuntak Susanti Linuwih Susanti Linuwih Susanti Linuwih Susanti Linuwih Susanti Linuwih Sutikno Sutikno Sutikno Sutikno Sutikno Sutikno Sutikno Sutikno Syarifah Nisrina Hasna Salby Syarifah Nisrina Hasna Salby Theresia Widiastuti Urifah Hidayanti Vergilia Agam Saputri Vita Ratnasari Wibawati Wibawati Yoyok Setyo Hadiwidodo Yurike Septi Angelina Monica Zuzun Miranti