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All Journal Jurnal Teknik ITS JURNAL REKAYASA TEKNOLOGI INFORMASI Voice Of Informatics CSRID (Computer Science Research and Its Development Journal) Jurnal Review Pendidikan dan Pengajaran (JRPP) Jurnal Mantik Journal of Intelligent Decision Support System (IDSS) Nusantara Hasana Journal Teknik: Jurnal Ilmu Teknik dan Informatika Jurnal Abdi Masyarakat Indonesia Jurnal Mandiri IT Brilliance: Research of Artificial Intelligence Jurnal Minfo Polgan (JMP) Jurnal Informatika Teknologi dan Sains (Jinteks) Jurnal Informatika dan Teknologi Informasi JSITP Jurnal Indonesia Sosial Teknologi Journal of Artificial Intelligence and Digital Business Jurnal Publikasi Teknik Informatika (JUPTI) Jurnal Masyarakat Madani Indonesia Jurnal Ekonomi, Teknologi dan Bisnis Innovative: Journal Of Social Science Research SOROT: Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat SmartComp Jurnal Akademik Pengabdian Masyarakat Svarga Pena: Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat Jurnal Teknik Informatika dan Desain Komunikasi Visual
Sarif Surorejo
STMIK YMI Tegal
Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Arts Humanities Astronomy Civil Engineering, Building, Construction & Architecture Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Electrical & Electronics Engineering Engineering Environmental Science Industrial & Manufacturing Engineering Languange, Linguistic, Communication & Media Law, Crime, Criminology & Criminal Justice Library & Information Science Mathematics Mechanical Engineering Nursing Public Health Social Sciences Other

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Journal : Jurnal Mantik

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Performance evaluation of single moving average and exponential smoothing in shallot production prediction Santoso, Aisyach Aminarti; Surorejo, Sarif; Kurniawan, Rifki Dwi; Gunawan, Gunawan
Jurnal Mantik Vol. 8 No. 1 (2024): May: Manajemen, Teknologi Informatika dan Komunikasi (Mantik)
Publisher : Institute of Computer Science (IOCS)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35335/mantik.v8i1.5205

Abstract

Shallots are a strategic commodity that has significant health benefits, including its ability to prevent cancer. The commodity also plays an important role in the agricultural economy, especially in Indonesia, where high demand in domestic and international markets contributes greatly to farmer’s income. However, fluctuations in shallot production often lead to price instability, which has a negative impact not only on consumers but also on the sustainability of farmers' income. This research aims to develop a forecasting model that can assist in more effective planning of shallot production. To achieve this goal, the study tested and compared two forecasting methods: Single Moving Average (SMA) and Single Exponential Smoothing (SES), which are known for their ease of implementation and accuracy in predicting time series data. Using a dataset of shallot production from Brebes Regency over the period 2020-2023, the study found that Single Exponential Smoothing consistently provided more accurate results than Single Moving Average. SES performance is more responsive to recent changes in production data, which is particularly important given the rapid fluctuations that often occur in the agricultural sector. The findings suggest that the application of the SES method in shallot production forecasting can facilitate more informed decision-making in production management and distribution planning, potentially stabilizing market prices and improving farmers' economic conditions
Co-Authors ., Yustira Aang Alim Murtopo Adhi Santoso, Nugroho Al Fattah, Muhammad Raikhan Albana, Muhammad Syifa Ali Djamhuri Alzam Habibie Ananda, Pingky Septiana Anandianskha, Sawaviyya Andriani, Wresti Andriani, Wresty Arif , Zaenul Arif, Zaenul Aslam, Muhammad Nur Bangkit Indarmawan Nugroho Bayu Aji Santoso Cahyati , Divia Faiqotul Cahyo, Septian Dwi Defi Lugianti Dwi Kurniawan, Rifki Erni Unggul Sedya Utami, Erni Unggul Sedya Fadlilah, Chairil Aditya Nur Firmansyah, Muchamad Aries Gunawan Gunawan Gunawan Gunawan Gunawan Hastin Setyorini Isnaeni Hamidah Juniyanto, Rudi Karsidin, Karsidin Khofifah Indah Hasanah Khofifah Indah Hasanah Kurniawan, Rifki Dwi Maulana, M Taufik Fajar Milkhatunisya Milkhatunisya Milkhatunisya, Milkhatunisya Moh. Jamaludin Mohamad Rifki Septiadi Muhamad Lutfi Muhammad Alfan Maulana Muhammad Sulthon Muhammad Syahrul Maulana Muhammad Syahrul Maulana Mutaqin, Ahadan Fauzan Ningrum, Isna Lidia Nugroho Adhi Santoso Nugroho Adhi Santoso Nur Kholifatul Aula Nurokhman, Akhmad Nurul Fadilah, Nurul Pingky Septiana Ananda Pinky Septiana Prayoga, Alan Eka Putra, Alif Sya’Bani Rifki Dwi Kurniawan Rifki Dwi Kurniawan Rito Cipta sigitta Hariyono Rivaldiansyah, Rafik Romadhona, Wahyu Rudi Juniyanto Sagita, Rito Cipta Santoso, Aisyach Aminarti Santoso, Bayu Aji Santoso, Nugroho Adh Santoso, Nugroho Adhi Setiawati, Windi Subechi, Fadlan Hafid Syefudin Syefudin Syefudin Syefudin, Syefudin Ubaidillah, Muhamad Rizal umar, moh azizul umar Uswatun Khasanah Wresti Andriani Yustira . Zaenal Arif Zaenul Arif Zain Hidayatullah, Fikri