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All Journal CAUCHY: Jurnal Matematika Murni dan Aplikasi Jurnal Ilmiah Pangabdhi INTENSIF: Jurnal Ilmiah Penelitian dan Penerapan Teknologi Sistem Informasi MUST: Journal of Mathematics Education, Science and Technology BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan JTAM (Jurnal Teori dan Aplikasi Matematika) Zeta - Math Journal J Statistika : Jurnal Ilmiah Teori Dan Aplikasi Statistika Jurnal Nasional Pendidikan Teknik Informatika (JANAPATI) ComTech: Computer, Mathematics and Engineering Applications Jurnal ABDINUS : Jurnal Pengabdian Nusantara G-Tech : Jurnal Teknologi Terapan Inferensi Contemporary Mathematics and Applications (ConMathA) Jurnal Statistika dan Aplikasinya Elastisitas Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan Journal of Mathematics Education and Science Indonesian Community Journal Eksponensial Limits: Journal of Mathematics and Its Applications
Elly Pusporani
Universitas Airlangga
Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Humanities Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Energy Engineering Environmental Science Industrial & Manufacturing Engineering Materials Science & Nanotechnology Mathematics Mechanical Engineering Physics Public Health Social Sciences Transportation Other

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Temperature Forecast at Djuanda International Airport using ARIMA, ANN, and Hybrid ARIMA-ANN Elly Pusporani; Fitriana Nur Afifa; Fidela Sahda Ilona Ramadhina
ComTech: Computer, Mathematics and Engineering Applications Vol. 16 No. 2 (2025): ComTech
Publisher : Bina Nusantara University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.21512/comtech.v16i2.13219

Abstract

This research evaluates the performance of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models in forecasting temperature at Djuanda Airport, comparing them with the traditional Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model and a hybrid ARIMA–ANN approach. Although statistical models such as ARIMA are widely applied, their capacity to capture nonlinear dynamics in tropical climate conditions is limited, particularly when the data exhibit irregular fluctuations that linear models cannot adequately represent. Forecasting temperatures in tropical airport settings, which is crucial for flight planning, operational safety, and the reliability of aviation operations, remains relatively underexplored. This gap underscores the importance of alternative modeling techniques that can effectively address nonlinear relationships. Using one year of observed data, the models are evaluated with three accuracy metrics: Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE). The ANN model achieves the lowest error values (MAE 0.7630, MAPE 2.7067%, RMSE 1.0074) compared to both ARIMA and hybrid approaches. The metrics and the testing graph collectively indicate that ANN has a stronger ability to capture nonlinear temperature dynamics in tropical contexts. Nonetheless, the findings must be interpreted with caution due to the limited dataset and single case study. These limitations highlight the need for extended data and alternative architectures to improve forecasting accuracy and strengthen support for safer aviation operations.
Prediksi Inflasi, Tingkat Suku Bunga, dan Nilai Ekspor dengan Vector Autoregressive dan Estimator Deret Fourier Simultan Lu'lu'a, Na'imatul; Haq, Affan Fayzul; Fitri, Marfa Audilla; Mardianto, M. Fariz Fadillah; Pusporani, Elly
Contemporary Mathematics and Applications (ConMathA) Vol. 6 No. 1 (2024)
Publisher : Universitas Airlangga

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20473/conmatha.v6i1.54128

Abstract

In the face of global economic uncertainty, predictions of the value of inflation, interest rates, and the value of exports are becoming increasingly crucial. This is also closely related to the SDGs in goals 8 and 9, namely on Decent Work and Economic Growth as well as Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure. This study discusses the use of Vector Autoregressive (VAR) methods and Fourier series estimators to improve the accuracy of predictions of these economic variables. The data used are the inflation, export value, and BI Rate sourced from Bank Indonesia and Badan Pusat Statistik with a monthly period and starting from the beginning of 2010 to September 2023. After analysis, the best method was obtained, namely the Fourier series estimator which included cosine and sine components with oscillation parameters 6 with MAPE 1.51% on the inflation value, 1.65% on the interest rate, and 3.03% on the export value. By considering the interaction between economic variables, the prediction results are expected to provide deeper understanding, support decision-making at the macroeconomic level, and assist governments, central banks, and market participants in identifying risks and planning export strategies.
Generalized Space Time Autoregressive (GSTAR) Modeling in Predicting the Price of Bird’s Eye Chili in East Java, West Java, and Central Java Pusporani, Elly; Yuniar, Muhammad Alvito Dzaky Putra; Fajrina, Sofia Andika Nur; Alexandra, Victoria Anggia; Mardianto, Muhammad Fariz Fadillah
CAUCHY: Jurnal Matematika Murni dan Aplikasi Vol 9, No 2 (2024): CAUCHY: JURNAL MATEMATIKA MURNI DAN APLIKASI
Publisher : Mathematics Department, Universitas Islam Negeri Maulana Malik Ibrahim Malang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.18860/ca.v9i2.25730

Abstract

Bird’s eye chili (Capsicum frutescens L.) is a major agricultural commodity in Indonesia that contributes to the economy through high market demand and its impact on inflation. In 2022, production reached 1,544,441 tons, with East Java, Central Java, and West Java being the top producing provinces. However, price fluctuations due to production and market mismatches are a concern for farmers and policy makers. The objective of this study was to model the price dynamics of bird’s eye chili in the provinces of East Java, Central Java, and West Java, given their substantial contribution to national production. To address this, the Generalized Space Time Autoregressive (GSTAR) method was applied to model the price of bird’s eye chili from February to November 2023 using data from the National Food Agency with 8:2 ratio between training and testing data. By utilizing different weighting schemes-uniform weight, inverse distance, and cross-correlation normalization, the GSTAR(2_1 )I(1) with uniform location weights performed best, showing high predictive accuracy with MAPE values of 2.021% for training data and 2.045% for test data. The model is recommended to stabilize the price of bird’s eye chili, with further validation recommended to improve reliability
ANALISIS BIPLOT PADA BERBAGAI FAKTOR KEMISKINAN DI INDONESIA BERDASARKAN PROVINSI Wieldyanisa, Ezha Easyfa; Ismi, Ferissa Maulida; Putri, Refa Berliana; Dwitya, Shabrina Nareswari; Elly Pusporani; Amelia, Dita
Elastisitas : Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan Vol. 7 No. 2 (2025): Elastisitas, September 2025
Publisher : Universitas Mataram

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29303/e-jep.v7i2.09

Abstract

Kemiskinan merupakan permasalahan kompleks yang dipengaruhi oleh berbagai faktor sosial dan ekonomi. Berdasarkan hal tersebut, penelitian ini bertujuan untuk melihat hubungan antara provinsi di Indonesia dan berbagai faktor yang berpengaruh terhadap kemiskinan seperti pendidikan, kesehatan, dan infrastruktur dasar menggunakan analisis biplot. Data sekunder tahun 2024 dari BPS digunakan dengan delapan variabel utama, meliputi usia harapan hidup, produk domestik regional bruto (PDRB) per kapita, angka melek huruf, rumah tangga dengan sanitasi layak, akses air layak, akses listrik, angka partisipasi sekolah, dan rata-rata lama sekolah. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa 81,772% keragaman data dapat dijelaskan oleh dua komponen utama dalam grafik biplot. Provinsi-provinsi dikelompokkan ke dalam empat kuadran berdasarkan kesamaan karakteristik kemiskinan. Faktor dengan keragaman tertinggi adalah rumah tangga dengan sanitasi layak, sedangkan faktor dengan keragaman terendah adalah PDRB per kapitaKorelasi antar variabel menunjukkan bahwa angka melek huruf dan akses listrik memiliki hubungan paling kuat, yang berarti semakin tinggi tingkat melek huruf suatu daerah, semakin besar pula kemungkinan masyarakatnya memiliki akses terhadap listrik. Sebaliknya, hubungan terlemah terdapat antara PDRB dan akses listrik. Penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa memahami kemiskinan memerlukan pendekatan terhadap berbagai faktor yang saling berkaitan serta perlunya kebijakan pembangunan yang disesuaikan dengan karakteristik daerah masing-masing.
Pengelompokan Provinsi di Indonesia berdasarkan Ketimpangan Akses Layanan Kesehatan Tahun 2024 Menggunakan Pendekatan Cluster Hirarki Nabila Rahma Na’ifa, Ariza; Rohayah, Dewi; Yuliati, Intan; Tsabita Amalia Shofa, Nayla; Pusporani, Elly; Amelia, Dita
EKSPONENSIAL Vol. 16 No. 2 (2025): Jurnal Eksponensial
Publisher : Program Studi Statistika FMIPA Universitas Mulawarman

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30872/v16i2.1560

Abstract

Health disparities remain a major challenge in Indonesia, particularly in terms of access to healthcare services across provinces. This study aims to classify 38 Indonesian provinces based on inequality in healthcare access in 2024 using a hierarchical clustering approach. Three key indicators were used: the number of hospitals, the number of medical personnel, and the percentage of people experiencing health complaints who opted for self-medication. The analysis identified the average linkage method as the most suitable model, supported by the highest cophenetic correlation coefficient (0,911). The results revealed two distinct clusters. The first cluster includes most provinces outside Java Island, characterized by limited healthcare infrastructure and personnel. The second cluster comprises four provinces on Java Island with advanced healthcare facilities but a high rate of self-medication. These findings suggest that healthcare access inequality is influenced not only by infrastructure but also by social and behavioral factors. Therefore, policy recommendations should be tailored accordingly: infrastructure improvement and equitable distribution of medical personnel for the first cluster, and health education interventions for the second. This study contributes to evidence-based policy design in line with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly the goal of ensuring equitable healthcare access for all.
Peningkatan Kompetensi dan Profesionalitas Warga Desa Tambaksawah Sidoarjo dalam Mengoperasikan Microsoft Excel Untuk Menuju Desa Yang Unggul dan Produktif Sa'idah Zahrotul Jannah; Elly Pusporani; Elly Ana; Idrus Syahzaqi; Afifah Nur Makkiyah; Aulia Ramadhanti; Azizah Dewi Ariyani; Azzah Nazhifa Wina Ramadhani; Nadya Lovita Hana Trisa; Nashwa Carista; Sheila Sevira Asteriska Naura
I-Com: Indonesian Community Journal Vol 5 No 1 (2025): I-Com: Indonesian Community Journal (Maret 2025)
Publisher : Fakultas Sains Dan Teknologi, Universitas Raden Rahmat Malang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.70609/icom.v5i1.6272

Abstract

Tambaksawah Village, Sidoarjo, is an industrial village that has the potential to improve the quality of life. However, this village faces obstacles, such as the limited skills of village officials using Microsoft Excel and the minimal application of technology in village institutions. Community service programs using Microsoft Excel are useful in supporting village administration efficiency and encouraging productivity. The methods include on-site training, group mentoring, international certification, and certification exams. Training followed by mentoring is carried out for one month. The evaluation results show an increase in the average score from 50.4 to 60.16, which shows an increase the understanding of participants. Apart from 7 participants, only 5 participants succeeded in obtaining official certificates. This activity succeeded in improving participants' skills in operating Microsoft Excel, so it is hoped that this can be the first step to advancing technological capacity and can help in developing Tambaksawah Village.
Peningkatan Kompetensi AKM Numerasi Guru SMAN 6 Surabaya Melalui Pembelajaran Interaktif sebagai Upaya Mendukung Kualitas Pembelajaran di Kelas Elly Pusporani; Idrus Syahzaqi; Sediono Sediono; Elly Ana; Adinda Tries Melati; Ailsa Shafa Salsabila; Aufa Muhammad Yogi Riyanto; Azizah Dewi Ariyani; Bagas Maulana; Deby Victoria; Ferissa Maulida Ismi; Nurul Fajriah Deswani Sangadji; Rahmat Agung Ibrahim; Sasy Okti Karima
I-Com: Indonesian Community Journal Vol 5 No 3 (2025): I-Com: Indonesian Community Journal (September 2025)
Publisher : Fakultas Sains Dan Teknologi, Universitas Raden Rahmat Malang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.70609/i-com.v5i3.8022

Abstract

Perubahan kurikulum di Indonesia belum memberikan dampak signifikan terhadap peningkatan kompetensi siswa, sehingga pemerintah meluncurkan Asesmen Kompetensi Minimum (AKM) dengan fokus literasi dan numerasi. Di SMAN 6 Surabaya, siswa mengalami kejenuhan dalam pembelajaran numerik sehingga diperlukan upaya pendukung melalui program pengabdian masyarakat. Kegiatan ini bertujuan meningkatkan kompetensi guru dalam merancang pembelajaran numerasi kontekstual berbasis AKM. Metode pelaksanaan meliputi sosialisasi, pelatihan, pendampingan, serta publikasi dan keberlanjutan program selama satu bulan dengan peserta 40 guru. Hasil evaluasi menunjukkan peningkatan skor rata-rata dari 45 (pre-test) menjadi 64 (post-test), serta tersusunnya modul pembelajaran interaktif dan soal AKM Numerasi. Kegiatan ini terbukti mampu meningkatkan kapasitas guru dalam mengimplementasikan strategi pembelajaran numerasi. Ke depannya, guru diharapkan terus mengembangkan kreativitas penyusunan soal, sekolah membentuk community of practice sebagai wadah berkelanjutan, serta dukungan pemerintah diperlukan melalui fasilitas dan kebijakan strategis.
Prediksi Harga Saham Big Four Banks di Indonesia Menggunakan Deret Fourier Multirespon Mochamad Rasyid; Sediono Sediono; M. Fariz Fadillah Mardianto; Elly Pusporani
Limits: Journal of Mathematics and Its Applications Vol. 22 No. 1 (2025): Limits: Journal of Mathematics and Its Applications Volume 22 Nomor 1 Edisi Ma
Publisher : Pusat Publikasi Ilmiah LPPM Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.12962/limits.v22i1.3379

Abstract

Analisis Hubungan Faktor Ekonomi dan Sosial dengan Kabahagiaan Dunia Berdasarkan Korelasi Kanonik Julia Widiyanti; Cantika Dhiya; Ganesya Intantalia; Maulana Syah Putra Ramadhani; Elly Pusporani; Elly Ana
Journal of Mathematics Education and Science Vol. 9 No. 1 (2026): Journal of Mathematics Education and Science
Publisher : Universitas Nahdlatul Ulama Sunan Giri Bojonegoro

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.32665/james.v9i1.5076

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the multivariate relationship between socioeconomic factors and global happiness indicators. Data taken from the 2019 World Happiness Report, which covers 125 countries, was analyzed using canonical correlation methods. The socio-economic dimension is represented by four variables, namely social support, freedom to make life choices, log GDP per capita, and healthy life expectancy. Meanwhile, the second group of variables representing happiness indicators includes ladder score, positive affect, and negative affect. The first canonical function shows a very strong and statistically significant relationship between the two sets of variables. The resulting canonical correlation is very high, namely rho_1=0.9243 with a p-value < 0.001, and this function is able to explain 85.4% of the overlapping variance. The main contributing variables are social support with a loading of 0.983 and log GDP per capita of 0.914 in the socio-economic set, as well as ladder score with a loading of 0.997 in the happiness set. Meanwhile, the second and third canonical functions generated in this analysis show relatively limited contributions. The results of this analysis confirm that social support and economic prosperity play a fundamental role in a country's happiness. The policy implications of these findings emphasize the need for integrated interventions that simultaneously strengthen social capital and promote sustainable economic growth.
Factors Affecting Interest in Revisiting Kare Tourism Village Based on Structural Equation Modeling M Fariz Fadillah Mardianto; Elly Pusporani; Suliyanto Suliyanto; Sri Endah Nurhidayati; Na’imatul Lu’lu’a; Marcelena Vicky Galena
Inferensi Vol 9 No 1 (2026)
Publisher : Department of Statistics ITS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.12962/j27213862.v9i1.9951

Abstract

This research focuses on analyzing the factors that affect tourists' intentions to revisit Kare Tourism Village. Utilizing quantitative methods, primary data were gathered through questionnaires from 105 tourists who had previously visited the village. The SEM-PLS method was employed for analysis. In this study, several latent variables were identified, including facilities and services in Kare Tourism Village as exogenous latent variables, tourist satisfaction as both an endogenous latent variable and an intermediate variable, and tourist interest as the dependent variable. The findings reveal an value of 0.876 for tourist satisfaction, indicating that 87.6% of the variation in satisfaction can be explained by the model, which is considered strong. In contrast, the R² value for tourist interest is 0.548, suggesting that 54.8% of the variation in interest is explained by the model, classified as moderate. Additionally, the GoF value of 0.673 demonstrates a high model fit. Furthermore, the service variables in Kare Tourism Village significantly impact tourist satisfaction.
Co-Authors Adinda Tries Melati Afifah Nur Makkiyah Ailsa Shafa Salsabila Ain, Dzuria Hilma Qurotu Ainaya Zakiyah Nabila Alexandra, Victoria Anggia Alfi Nur Nitasari Alfredi Yoani Ana, Elly Andreas, Christopher Antonio Nikolas Manuel Bonar Simamora Audilla, Marfa Aufa Muhammad Yogi Riyanto Aulia Ramadhanti Ayuning Dwis Cahyasari Ayuning Dwis Cahyasari Azizah Dewi Ariyani Azzah Nazhifa Wina Ramadhani Bagas Maulana Cantika Dhiya Deby Victoria Diana Nurlaily Dita Amelia Doni Muhammad Fauzi Doni Muhammad Fauzi Dwitya, Shabrina Nareswari Elly Ana Fajrina, Sofia Andika Nur Farah Fauziah Putri Farida Nur Hayati Farizi, Muhammad Fikry Al Fatiha Nadia Salsabila Ferissa Maulida Ismi Fidela Sahda Ilona Ramadhina Fitri, Marfa Audilla Fitriana Nur Afifa Ganesya Intantalia Grace Lucyana Koesnadi Hanny Valida Haq, Affan Fayzul Helfira Lady Ari Pramesti I Kadek Pasek Kusuma Adi Putra Idrus Syahzaqi Idrus Syahzaqi Irhamah - Irma Ayu Indrasta Ismi, Ferissa Maulida Jannah, Sa'idah Zahrotul Julia Widiyanti Koesnadi, Grace Lucyana Lu'lu'a, Na'imatul Lu’lu’a, Na’imatul M. Fariz Fadillah Mardianto M. Fariz Fadillah Mardianto M. Fariz Fadillah Mardianto Marcel Laverda Subiyanto Marcelena Vicky Galena Marcelena Vicky Galena Maula, Sugha Faiz Al Maulana Syah Putra Ramadhani Mochamad Rasyid Nabila Rahma Na’ifa, Ariza Nadya Lovita Hana Trisa Nashwa Carista Na’imatul Lu’lu’a Nitasari, Alfi Nur Nurrohmah, Zidni ‘Ilmatun Nurul Fajriah Deswani Sangadji Permana, Made Riyo Ary Pratama, Bagas Shata Previan, Anggara Teguh Putri, Ferdiana Friska Rahmana Putri, Refa Berliana Rahmat Agung Ibrahim Rani, Lina Nugraha Rohayah, Dewi Sa'idah Zahrotul Jannah Sa'idah Zahrotul Jannah Salsabila, Fatiha Nadia Sari, Adma Novita Sari, Adma Novita Sasy Okti Karima Sa’idah Zahrotul Jannah Sediono, Sediono Setiawan, Nicoletta Almira Dyah Sheila Sevira Asteriska Naura Siregar, Naufal Ramadhan Al Akhwal Siti Maghfirotul Ulyah Siti Qomariyah Sri Endah Nurhidayati Steven Soewignjo Suliyanto Toha Saifudin Tsabita Amalia Shofa, Nayla Wieldyanisa, Ezha Easyfa Yuliati, Intan Yuniar, Muhammad Alvito Dzaky Putra Zah, Alfian Iqbal Zuleika, Talitha Zuleika, Talitha